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just did a quick reply and looked when I had 3 seconds and Euro AI gets the NC shore then would be east of us.. but that run was better than previous runs

Recently moved back west to Elko, NV to work for the NWS, so I'll be posting when I can here. We had our first snow of the season Monday night/Tuesday. Ruby Mountains got a good 4-6 inches or more.

Highs this week: 10/12: 90 10/13: 93 10/14: 93 10/15: 93

You must have missed the ‘we’d be in a drought if not for the storm’ talk

Well below normal is the most likely outcome. One huge storm that lines up with blocking and delivers near normal seasonal snow for people south of boston is the second most likely outcome. The ski resorts will likely have a ratter winter with tons of rain outs and bare runs off the sides of the trails. We were kinda due for that, with how good the last two winters were over the interior.

That would take all of 3 seconds. What you're saying , without saying - AI is well East.

First ripe pawpaw from my trees. We did it.

My guess is by the end of winter we will be tired of rain.

Ike is the only on the list not a MH at landfall. However, that’s a technicality because it was at the high end of cat 2 and it was also gigantic in size! I wonder how high the surge was for these devastating hurricanes in comparison: -Sea Islands of 1893 -Galveston H of 1900

Good data. Honestly I don’t think anyone can make a forecast for next season due to the historical unprecedented magnitude of this Nino. It’s impossible know what the response will be next year. So I should probably back down and say something like 50-200 Ace. Really anything is possible. Since you have some great data access do you have any info on a possible tsunami on the east coast created by the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755? I can’t really find anything concrete. .

That slight risk certainly expanded a tad.

@SnowenOutThere I think your instinct is right. That’s a very marginal sounding between drizzle and a little snizzle.

18z Euro much closer to the coast.. haven't checked the AI yet

Yes, and it makes the top 5! Highest U.S. TC Storm Surges 1) Katrina Aug 2005 27.80 ft Pass Christian MS 2) Camille Aug 1969 24.60 ft Pass Christian MS 3) Carla Sep 1961 22.07 ft Port Lavaca TX 4) Laura Sep 2020 19.86 ft Creole LA 5) Unnamed Sep 1938 19.17 ft Point Judith RI 6) Unnamed Sep 1935 18.23 ft Lower Matecumbe Key FL 7) Beulah Sep 1967 18.00 ft South Padre Island TX 8) Ike Sep 2008 17.79 ft Chambers County TX 9) Hugo Sep 1989 17.55 ft Awendaw SC 10) Rita Sep 2005 17.25 ft Cameron Parish LA

Yes, and good point, but the non-linear nature of atmosphere and the strength of this El Nino? I have learned that what we thought should happen and worked as a good analog prior, well, just when you think you have seen it all, something happens that has one going ???? I do not think there is any clear evidence that an favorable phase of the AMO precludes two suppressed Atlantic seasons in a row. For the sake of argument, lets say "suppressed" is less than 70% of avg ACE. You have 1945-46, 1956-57, 1959-60, and 2013-14, all in the favorable phase of the AMO, but less than 70% ACE each season.

That anxiety is soon coming lol

Isn’t 1938 also about a very high storm surge?

The Oct 1846 hurricane was exceptional as well. A 2021 study showed that if such a HU occurred today, costs would be over $100B for the E Coast. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24694452.2020.1838257 Unfortunately. the paper is behind a paywall.

The level of anxiety this forum would have if this system was in January would be through the roof

Yes, and POR (period of record) considered is paramount, so mentioning the paleoclimo record of 1000 years is key to historical discussion. I get the distinct impression from the mainstream, it like everything prior to 2000 didn't happen! It's all about here and now, and the past/history be damned! Oh, I know why that is and the media business model, but it misleading so many as to wx events these days. Facts are meaningless w/o context, so you can't treat wx events currently or recently in a vacuum! That's why studying history is so important. Why I said 2000 above as "that's when wx history 'started'?" I've see those little daily wx calendars where you rip off a page each day, and it became quickly obvious to me that most wx events were post-2000! Not that there were not sig wx events on the days post-2000, but why would they *not* list the Tri-State Tor on 3/18/1925 or the GLS HU on 9/8/1900?

Hit 93 for a high here. Unbelievable for mid October.