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The cutter winding up at the end of the gfs run for Christmas would shut the ski resorts down for the holiday. Sad

Yup I believe i pointed out 22-23 was a great analog

Perhaps rats come in all shapes and sizes

Skynet vs Graphcast

I think I like Sunday for a 1-3 type deal. Cold HP moving in from the NW and a decent shortwave that might dig a bit more. We shall see.

Sunday isn't lost yet. The next day or so will likely resolve whether or not this is a potential wintry threat. The ICON, ECM-AI, GFS-AI, and GEFS support a possible snowstorm. The other guidance (UK, ECM, CMC, GEPS, EPS) aren't too far off.

There is also a cmc para. AI is taking over everything.

Allegheny plateau is to winter storms as Hispaniola is to hurricanes.

The warm pool moving eastward would be a good thing for us. Basically puts the background conditions to support the strongest convection (essentially the MJO) in a more favorable position for eastern troughing.

That guy is always in defense mode.

Threat for Sunday looks impotent

Yeah good to see the GEFS mean with a slight improvement over 12z and better than the op. Every step in the right direction is welcomed. This next 24 hours of modeling will likely reveal if this will be a wintry threat or not.

Nice parade of cutters on the 18z GFS.

Until other guidance is on board, Out they go.

That may be smart..but if it gets this 14th potential correct, they may be on to something.

AI-Eagle looked much better at 18z

Yes, but 89 shows up too and illustrates another possible outcome, that the best the season has to offer is actually happening right now and once the pattern inevitably relaxes it either never comes back (1990) or once it does it's only after taking an extended break (2005-06). 2005 is referenced because it had a similar gangbusters start and then abruptly collapsed on 12.23, not coincidentally exactly what the GFS was depicting today (so, its not without precedent by a longshot in the...pattern analogs).

I'm tossing the skynet models.

That’s how you get 135k followers lmao . F being right, just post the most extreme and polarizing weather.

Far NW suburbs still on track for a possible C-2" tomorrow. Unlike last week which was more of a latitudinal gradient, this potential wintry event has a stronger elevational component. I could see the top of Schunnemunk or Mt. Beacon getting an inch or two of snow while the Hudson River towns get zilch. Elevated NW NJ could get a little accumulation this time too.

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

A lot of moving parts to try to resolve in a given window. Makes sense I suppose

That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap.