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The latest CFS outlook has now shifted toward a wetter outcome for the close of October and start of November.

just the NAM so tfwiw but these grid numbers over Logan imply/look modestly impressive for a convection swath tomorrow afternoon...probably E 30020663908 -2599 032218 49170901

Live look at your local and social media pundit

2 days late... but not denied?

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1947) NYC: 84 (1920) LGA: 82 (1947) JFK: 81 (1963) Lows: EWR: 31 (1974) NYC: 31 (1871) LGA: 33 (1974) JFK: 31 (1973) Historical: 1743: On the evening of the 21st Ben Franklin had hoped to observe a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia but cloudy skies from a VA coastal storm hide the moon. Franklin later learned from sources in Boston that the same eclipse seen in clear skies in the NE but a violent storm hit them the next day. Franklin reasoned that it was the same storm and that weather moves. (Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) It puzzled Franklin that the system seemed to move from southwest to northeast even though winds at his location were from the northeast. He theorized the winds in the storm system must have been rotating around a center. A brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show the big picture. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1780: Spanish Admiral Solano was enroute from Havana to Pensacola in October 1780 to capture the important port city. The third major hurricane of the month swept north through the Gulf of Mexico catching and scattering the fleet of 64 warships. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804: First snow of the season seen by the Lewis and Clark Expedition near Bismark, North Dakota. The snow fell to a depth of one-half inch. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum) 1952: Earliest first frost in Washington DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel) 1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days. 1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: A state of emergency was declared in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine after a powerful coastal storm dumped over a foot of rain causing massive flooding. Portland, ME recorded 7.92 inches of rainfall in 24 hours to set their rainfall record.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Boston, Massachusetts on the 20th and 21st had the greatest 24 hour precipitation of 6.66 inches for the month of October. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1998: A tropical depression formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea, about 360 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. This disturbance would intensify over the next few days to become Hurricane Mitch, a monster storm that would eventually become the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, behind "The Great Hurricane" of 1780 in the Caribbean. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

63 / 41. Sunny. Maybe a scattered shower later as front passes through ,otherwise a dry week. Near normal. FRont to WPA

Looking a little closer while I'm working on Holiday 2026 thread which I will post this week sometime, all 3 winter months look to have significant arctic blasts this year. How the anoms flush out will depend of course. Don't even ask about snow, that's a fickle beast. Might as well ask if your getting any from your woman this winter.

That’s good to see showing up! .

This is quite the -PMM developing the last 3 weeks

A washout of a Halloween though.

The surface center is leaving the convection behind again this morning.

I might try Canaan valley state park. Easier to access and the road is generally in decent shape. Black bear has some decently priced suites that are pretty cool also.

What do you think the best place is for upslope hiking wise? I’ve been at spruce knob before but I don’t know if I’d want to try that road when it’s snowing.

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1320251100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure. The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct consensus aid, HCCA.Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.Key Messages:1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday.3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH$$Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

Where's the blocking? Hudson bay to Quebec ridging on EPS then moves to a more +NAO. Pacific gets a little better...might allow a decent cold shot early November.

It looks like most places in North Carolina outside of the immediate coast and CLT and the southern Piedmont and GSO have gone below 40 this season.

Yep, BUT figuring out how to win being down 10 with 8-9 minutes left in the game does say something. I KNEW there was no way UVA was gonna cover a 17 point spread lol. If you are/were a betting person that was an EASY pick, to not cover. Wa ST isn't a bad team, I can see them going 7-5 and bowling with their remaining schedule, heck they almost pulled off a win at then #4 Ol Miss the week before.

GFS is later with the big cold, but still doesn’t deny it’s comingg

Plentiful 30s this morning in North Carolina

I know of WindBorne. When I heard about what they do, this thought went through my mind. That’s wild.

Chemtrail right through the windshield

Winston got down to 39 this morning, but GSO only got down to 42.

Looks like boredom until the Christmas week screaming Sou'Easter