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January 21-23, 2022: A massive system brought measurable snow to almost every corner of the state, including the typically snow-free southeastern coast. December 25-26, 2010: A historic "White Christmas" event where all 100 counties reported snowfall, with a foot or more in several regions.

We may get closer to seasonal, but still cold enough to support snow given the right storm track.

I may be missquoting EasternLI, however I THOUGHT he mentioned that the warm pool was slowly moving east and can eventually be in a favorable location.

Needed some sleep....or went outside for a walk....

Saw tiny bits of ice forming on the river by my office this morning which is exceptionally rare

Where's James when you need em

We should be able to score some of that in Feb given the RNA and relaxed -WPO.

Here's a fun one. At my house (6.8), BWI (9), and DCA (10), the coldest temperatures of this stretch were on Saturday morning, before the storm.

Yup 30” in 6hrs yesterday. Can you imagine?

Frustrating, but all I can do is hit the LES belts when I retire.

I understand your skepticism. It is nice to see some radar returns in FL panhandle. I think this bodes well for us

Then F it, just give me overrunning SWFE all day

Hoping for a little OE refresher here.

No matter how today goes. I’m still looking for our true gulf low, Miller A, heavy wet snow.

Those low single digits in inner pg and moco are very impressive. Rare here

Except that few people I know read the disco. I’d imagine that’s a good representation of much of the public. They just look at colors and numbers and see they went from 9 to 7 (low end 1-2 and hi 12). That high end temp does suggest the possibility, but the 10% there would discount that from a lot of people’s grasp on the situation.

Agree, that absolutely makes sense

Anyone have a good idea of when this kicks off? I'm seeing noon to 1 or so on future radar (TWC app).

7 here

Thanks man. Snowfall Totals Alt (NESIS Scheme)

Yeah I think 3-5 in Triad is reasonable. If it's gonna bust, I think it busts on the low side

It's because of the MJO IMHO.....if you notice, it always finds a way to minimize both residence and amplitude in phase 8...and even the few days it spends there, it's some non-comital BS like split-forcing. The fast flow is what it is, but it's not fast enough to prevent bombs for the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritimes. I do think CC plays a role, but it's more about the disproportionate warming in the West Pacific predisposing the convective forcing to MC positioning, while repelling it from the more favorable (relative to east coast cyclogenesis) dateline and African continent.

Latest RGEM...

Don’t think of it as caving, think of it as hedging. They make the upside potential clear in their writings.