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How is that different than any other season the last 7 seasons.

Monday HRRR looks good

Need it more North.

A lot of people are forgetting all it takes is a transitional +PNA to get a big storm to pop on the east coast. Speaking about that models seem to be showing that on the 13th of December. I watch that period very closely for a miller b snowstorm.

Need more support, but I like it

I mean assuming I got the positive changes from 18z to 0z right at hour 15 (also couldve been an unrelated factor) that is technically the HRRR's wheelhouse? Or am I insane?

Zoomed in map with pretty much all snow done at this point

33 here now.

Now just need a real model to show things that far north

HRRR showing similar outcome with this System coming up Tomorrow night as the past one. Rich get Richer if is right as showing this Evening. Hopefully it's wrong. If not, more cold rain with a little sleet and snow mixed in for area's south of Wise and Lebanon ending as Snow. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

I think back a few days ago and ensembles had that ridge already slid across to the MA by 12/13. Look at 162 hours today its not even close. There is no doubt they've been way too warm beyond D8 for awhile now.

Where did CAD go all of a sudden?

Why wouldn’t I just come there directly with the Woodyard chainsaw massacre?

18z

Fog creeping in heavily at my place - 35°

That PNA is textbook

Its so close to something decent for a lot of NC. Just a couple tweaks

Hrrr snows on basically all of us

Not a great surface depiction but it was undeniably better under the hood

Part of the issue is that the water temps have come way down over the last month. As of a couple of days ago Lake Michigan water temps were just a smidge above average and dropping fast. Lake Huron was average but dropping fast and Erie and Ontario were both below average now. I know you only care about Lake Michigan but the way the water temps are dropping, it’s going to take a significantly cold airmass for heavy lake effect snow. Also there was 1.2% ice cover already too.

I'll drive

Look if it needs to happen… we can meet up in winston salem… and we can sacrifice something from every county in NC. Maybe then the pattern will be in our favor since we sent gifts from all across NC to mother nature. .

This is gonna be a weenie HRRR run for northern Piedmont