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Part of the reason we are getting the more typical 2020s summer +AMO/-PDO Niña-like pattern in North America is due to the Nino forcing being focused in the Southern Hemisphere instead of the more typical Northern Hemisphere.

Ugh.. I thought the rain knocked down the smoke. I'm headed out for a 8 mile morning hike and it smells like electrical fire lol. Oh well. I can't sit in the house all day.

Only got down to 80 overnight here. I’d have to go back and look but that may be the all time max low temp IMBY.

I can smell it this morning again. Not as strong as yesterday

SPC has increased the risk of strong tornadoes for all of NJ and EPA.

Nothing but smoke and parched ground here. I'm not expecting any rain this evening either

Rrfs and nam are this evening now

Thundered for “what seemed” like an hour straight here around 4am. I did not expect that.

Still purple with AQI of 213 here

Eversource has a pretty crazy battery program available in CT and MA. They essentially pay you like 6x retail electricity rates when you discharge your battery to the grid during high demand. This is because New England still relies on tons of peak oil fired power plants. When those run electricity from them can be like 30x normal wholesale rates. These plants are crazy expensive because they idle 95% of the year and run off essentially diesel fuel. These oil plants are also used a lot in the winter when there are natural gas pipeline constraints in New England. ISO New England had an article a few years ago how New England burned something crazy like over $500 million in oil in 1 week during a prolonged cold snap. Here is some numbers from a powerwall in CT last year I saw online. The Eversource program is run through Tesla for payments. I think the math is these payments will pay for the battery in 5 years and they have a 10 year warranty. In 2025 there were 41 events during which my powerwall and solar setup sent energy back to the grid. • I received a check from Tesla for $1889.42 in February for these events. • On average, I sent 25.11kWh/event to the grid during each of these events. • I sent 1029kWh in total to the grid during these events. • For an average price of $1.84/kWh and average of $46.08/event. A kwh is currently around .30 in New England. Eversource bought the power from the battery at around 6x or $1.84 kwh during high demand. https://www.eversource.com/residential/save-money-energy/clean-energy-options/energy-storage-solutions

AQ still kinda ass tho even if the air looks cleaner

The storms were 4 hours early as a beefcake MCS is plowing through. Its been a long time since I've had a 'awn storm. You couldn't see the darkness coming til it was right on top nearly. Curious if the smoke caused that. Fr. lightning with constant thunder, going to be shy of an inch after its not moving fast and I see some backbuilding.

Eyeballing either side of 0.10” of rain in the gauge from a thundershower between 4 and 5 AM. Just enough to wet down things at the surface, air quality this morning for Columbia is starting off at about 186.

The Miramichi fire was mostly in NB but also involved some Maine acres. Since the Baxter Fire in 1977, Maine's biggest wildfires have been about 1,000 acres. Lorimer's work on forest history in Maine points to stand-replacement events occurring about 800 years apart for any one area. The state has very little fire-type forest and a cool moist climate with relatively even distribution by month.

Rare hatched tornado risk too.

64 degrees this morning Radar kind of looks spread out.

Oh, thank God it will be enough to keep the grass growing. That’s what I’m really worried about.

AQI still ~130-160 and the fog is making it more irritating. Yuck

About 0.08” with the morning bonus round. Hopefully 2 more rounds today?

Was just woken up by a strong clap of thunder. Thunder smoke? Why the hell not.

Impressive severe and flash flooding threat. The AMO has rapidly increased to near record levels. So a deep tropical moisture feed with strong shear.

.DISCUSSION... -- Changed Discussion -- KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are possible from mid-day into late evening. Tornadoes also possible. SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special (conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA (including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA. Early showers and even a thunderstorm or two will occur near/along a pair of warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning and early afternoon. The vort max moving into western PA at 07Z is expected to continue to touch off showers this morning. Some lightning is possible, mainly across the S. There should not be a threat for severe weather until at least late this morning after we can get the clouds and showers away and get some heating/pump up the CAPE. The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate look like they will be early enough in the day that ample heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete, spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable. 70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front, and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE, esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across the N for much of the day. The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we`ll have to watch all of the CWA for storm initiation in early and mid afternoon. These could also be supercells away from the SE - at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough materializes.

Must have been the profile pic change. Thanks @EastCoast NPZ

Close enough lol. Still better just to the south.