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Id take that. Eventually we get a big dog again but this set up screams Boxing day or a coastal scrapper.

Negative tilt vort over South Carolina at 141.

" One of the most memorable aspects of this particular storm was the introduction of “cobblestone ice” into the common vocabulary of North Texans. So why did it form, and why did it get so bad? First off, it goes without saying that there was an abundance of precipitation with this event. Many areas received over an inch of liquid, including DFW Airport, where 1.25” of liquid was observed. North and east of the Metroplex, totals were even higher. This translated into multiple inches of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain which existed in layers of varying depth. As traffic and marginal air and ground temperatures began to work on this frozen mess, some of it melted partially and morphed into slush during the daytime hours. Once nighttime fell, however, most of it would refreeze and harden. Despite the best efforts of local and state road crews, this cycle of compaction, melting, refreezing and hardening repeated itself in some areas over a period of up to 4 days. In some spots, particularly on bridges and overpasses, larger chunks of ice were broken out of the icepack by plows and traffic. These chunks would mix in with the slush during the daytime, forming a soupy gray mess. At night, the entire concoction would refreeze, producing large molded bumps that were essentially glued to the very top of the roadways (or bridge decks). It was these hard, rock-like formations that represented the essence of the cobblestone ice experience for North Texas drivers. Once frozen in place, this unique ice proved quite difficult to remove. Depths ranged from ½” to 4”, depending on where traffic caused peaks and valleys in the slush before it froze into cobblestone form."

The Euro is a whiff that run except for the Smokies/NE mountains.

5 days away, atleast it still shows a storm. We got time.

It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate

See ya for 18z - Better be a blip.. but you want to see each run get better.. not worse.. Anyways.. thanks for the pbp @stormtracker

Snowing again - 18F. Think I have a shot at hitting my 21" guess for MBY. At 17.8"

12z Euro might be interesting per 500 vort maps.

When’s the cmc run again? Edit — nvm didn’t scroll up

A "swing and a miss" that gets 1" of QPF into Montauk and 0.5" into Queens Sounds more like a swing and a deep fly that you're not sure is going out yet or not

I've doing this for years. Believe me, there is plenty of time. GFS had this storm as a bomb of Friday, lost it till early runs today. There is plenty of time.

A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for

It's great that the suffering is kept to a minimum being only five days away

EURO just whiffed

Nice band over central areas right now.

14" of new snow and about 2" of existing snow-cover. We just had a snow shower move through with a coating of new snow. This is the deepest snow-cover since moving here in 2022. Currently light snow and 19F.

not really.......Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out

i want a raging blizzard that loops like hurricane Sandy! i think that's a possibility!

Yeah I'd really want to see consistent runs showing that evolution between now and Wednesday. We have 48 hours, by hour 60 in the run we just had some knew it was going to be a bit east.

https://media.tenor.com/4NqljZBtqWUAAAAM/intergalactic-quality-intergalactic.gif

Euro is really a cave to the GFS huge jump from 1 run.

Google model Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Very light snow now but looks like a burst should be here within the hour per radar.

Yes! Its not far off