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LOL at the end of that run trying to form a Hudson Bay block....that would probably produce all sorts of craziness. That's actually how Dec 19-20, 1995 happened.

Gang is returning

12z GFS really tries to see something up around the 5th, 8th, and 10th. If we can't score at least climo snowfall then we'll need a regional exorcism.

Shorts and low 60s.

Ukie is very weak

Semi violent gfs run

The 12z GEFS ensembles arent terrible imo...

Gefs

It's like watching commercials for Vegas when everybody wins on every spin!

ICON also joined the party

Gfs with vodka cold next weekend (GGEM agrees), then a clipper goes Miller B for a high ratio powder storm. Lol

Yeah, probably low Dp at onset. Hopefully we get a stronger push of cold with the follow-up System the 2nd. As is, a rain to snow in upper Valley at the end. If Models are correct, Northern VA and much of West Virginia are going to get buried. Much of Kentucky looks to get a good amount as well.

On the live webcam from mount Washington there were some cool looking clouds around 645 am.. not sure when this is from

A reminder for those who have incorrectly stated that we had nothing to track early last winter...

GFS already corrected north and it's likely not done. Cimo favors the interior heavily. Catskills and Poconos should get a really nice event.

AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.

Agree with most of this, but think the second half of December could be interesting. The 2-3rd threat is real, but id favor NW of both of us for plowable snows at this stage. If we can thread the needle and squeeze out 4-8 inches that would be awesome, but those mild early Dec ocean temps are going to be working against us. Still worth keeping an eye on though.

And the ukie aka crazy uncle squashed the 12/2 threat at 12z

The cold air press looks stronger than the GFS/GGEM based off the 540 line location

Yep...ots

Very nice.... weather outside

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

69°

Yeah, all we can do is look at large scale features and sort them out before we start the backyard stuff. Safe to say many/all backyards will be white and thats a big win this early. Verbatim entire sub is gettin some snow. As Mag suggested, its a progressive pattern, so while 6z snowmaps were a virtual pants tent....one should use much caution when observing. IMO 12z a much more believable/achievable scenario. Im headed to cabin Friday, so I'll be looking from afar. Hope you guys can reel this one in for us.