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from eric webb:

Wow another flip flop. These models suck past 3 minutes

Brownsville got into the 90s today, and broke the record of 91 F set back in 1982.

Yeah walked the dog at like 1:00pm and it was such a beautiful winter day out there. Not only has the pack stayed around for a bit, the little 1” refreshments have kept it pretty clean looking which is always a bonus for winter scenery.

Yeah, like I've been saying. This can start to become a very beneficial feature if you can bump it east from climo enough. I'm still having a really hard time finding any problems with any of this situation out there. It's not a bad look and with the big WWB in progress and some potential for more in the future... +

Some maximum temp records could be in jeopardy again this upcoming week as ridging aloft looks to reassert itself over the Plains states early in the week.

When is it supposed to start?

Cant trust these models at all. Another turnaround.

Every day I wake up and expect torch or frigid based on the model discussion and my point and click 10 day forecasts over the last month or so. Yet every day it just ends up seasonal. Granted we had a couple of peak days at Christmas, and some 20s and teens in early Dec. But for the most part, it sure does seem like our model trends are muted in both directions. Extreme swings don't pan out. If anything, this season thus far has been very "normal" if I had to describe it. And underwhelming, if not boring. Is it just me?

Coldest Jan 7th+ for Chicago lows on GEFS runs thru today’s 18Z:1/2 12Z +251/3 0Z +256Z +2112Z +1918Z +15 So, the GEFS mean coldest low at Chicago on the 18Z is a whopping 10 F colder than it was just 18 hours ago and is actually now slightly colder than the 12Z EPS’ 17. The normal Chicago low is for then ~18. So, the source for potential cold in the SE has gotten sig. colder. That’s the point of following and posting these. This colder 18Z run was largely related to a stronger -WPO, -EPO, and -AO vs the 12Z.

Careful …AMATT will say you’re trying to protect the pack

Im sure he's just being sarcastic.

For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the SE US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes: “It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño. Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.” ———— “Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.” ————— “IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

Nice gradient look. Just need a significant wave to ride along it and snow on us.

You should apologize to the Pope.

Look at that change on the GEFS just since the 00z run this morning. LOL Current 18z: 00z run from last night:

It is a bummer too.....solid week+ and it is still a nice fluffy pack. Went for a hike today, in a sunny, open field and it was still a solid 4-5 inches. This is why early season snowfalls are nice, they stick around, even when the temps are marginal...If this was Mid February-Mid March it would have been gone by now or at least a muddy inch.

Single digit, snow covered, breezy deep winter new years weekend. Exactly how it should be in northern Vermont. .

For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the E US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes: “It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño. Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.” ———— “Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.” ————— “IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

Patience is the key here. The CFS weeklies and Euro weeklies all showed a relaxation after New Year's with a change back to a colder pattern afterwards. The Euro weekly nailed the cold temps in Dec and this upcoming warm up back in early Dec. Let's enjoy a little bit of a thaw and see what comes on the other side of it. The weeklies show another several weeks of favorable conditions are incoming after it. I don't always have faith in the long term "climate" models but their 500mb depictions since December have been in the ballpark.

Its won’t until it does. Then it will deliver the goods. Seen it and lived it. I’m in but out at the same time.

Haha. The 18z GEFS on WX Bell has found the cold!!! EPO doin’ the work…

let's get some ice!

Currently: Cloudy. Calm. 21.2F

100 miles east and I’ll take it with zero complaints!! .