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The amped shift is cooling the interior. The amped solution was lost yesterday at this time, warming everything. I dropped from 13 inches white stuff to .60" fr at 12z yesterday. Will we lose it again?

If I had the time and energy these days I’d def start planning a chase up to your neck of the woods. .

Purely speculation but this seems like one of those deals where PSU gets 3-4” and 95 gets excited about the first coating of the season.

I'm just glad the gem still has the storm 5 days out lol

Now we have an amped up ~990mb tight to the coast. Preferred the weaker strung out wave we had been seeing tbh. That strength and track is going to torch BL for those areas right near the fall line. Congrats interior tho.

And Rob, I’m thankful for them and even for forky. May we all be blessed, as always ….

The real Santa just arrived in NYC My temp has held steady last 3 hours

IMO - ANY significant snow before January 1 is always a pleasant surprise down here in the coastal plain, next to the bay. Too many things working against us early in the Winter. A couple of inches of slop will be a positive...

The GFS is now seeing a colder solution for Tuesday, surface and aloft.

Riding the 0.1” line. A familiar place.

within 3 hours

UKie/ICON are kind to Clarksville and surrounding areas. Steep gradient from NW Davidson to SE Davidson per the Ukie. The UKIE throws winter AMZ's way too.

Is it within 5 days or within 3 days where the odds of the snow going poof falls off a cliff?

I wonder how strong of an El Nino would be necessary to completely take the record WPAC warm pool out of the equation? Even during the 2015-2016 record super event, we still got the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Nino in December 2015 leading to the +13 that month around NYC. Thankfully, there was a major improvement during January and February 2016. But our next El Nino attempts in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 were too weak to fully couple due to that record WPAC warm pool leading to the strong La Nina background patterns. Then the borderline super event in 2023-2024 had the record forcing and SST warmth from the IO into the WPAC for such a strong El Nino. This lead to the record warmth and 500mb ridging in Canada extending down into the US with no Nino trough development in the East.

Ukie sucks here lol, but does look a bit colder

I think everyone who is making bold predictions on rain vs. snow and amounts 5 days out should at least post some evidence to back up their statements with - can't just go from past memories.......also models are still in the flip flop phase

Ukmet

Indeed it is

I'm interested to see the 12z Euro.. starts in a few minutes

Most likely outcome yes. Actually most likely is little to no accumulation or all rain but too early to say what the best possible outcome is

That’s very relevant for a ton of us. Congrats everyone!

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time.

Euro being east should be a caution flag for amped solutions. So far this upcoming system has been behaving quite well. Models are jockeying for position so fade the big swings.

12z Ukie smokes BR and west

Usually anything from like 1-3 to 3-5 is most common. Some rare instances where 6-7 has occurred for the coast like February 2008 November 2018 December 1990 but those usually consist of one of two scenarios. Weak waves vs amping lows or the system approaches more from down in the Carolinas vs the Tennessee or Ohio Valley.