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The Reno upper air site sampled a record western ridge at 591dm. That ob was in place for the 12z model suite, and voila...everything tucks closer to the coast. Do not underestimate the importance of upper air data beyond HR90.

We just need Brett to say it’s unlikely and the pope to use some teleconnection over the Indian Ocean to say it’s not gonna happen. Then we can lock.

Probably trying to resolve the big one this run.

IMO, if the 12z suite tomorrow has this or better, then we are likely onto something.

Let's see what GFS and CMC have for the 22nd and beyond. Last night was obviously a weenie run, but the pattern would indicate there would probably be something within that timeframe

I’m going to take a look at the setup more in depth later. The 6z euro was a whiff, but it wasn’t terribly far off. Even on the Euro that’s a potent shortwave. Ai guidance is also close, so the takeaway here is there is some cross guidance support for a storm threat.

Looking like A Carolina Special to me. I'm glad for those folks, particularly the Piedmont. Sad for us. We'll have to settle for our dustings for now. Another 150 Miles West would be great. Hopefully we'll set up a better Trough alignment for us before long. Hopefully I'm wrong about this one.

AI was a slightly better than 6z, not by a ton though

Right now I think it is very plausible we see something out of this but I will caution that the warm nose almost always overpeforms and makes it farther inland than modeled. The pattern looks like it will be there but as always we live and die by the warm nose.

I strongly suspect this is an EC storm. Unfortunately for all of us...may be just too far to the east. We keep getting a dang low in the Lakes. Haha.

Can and should we maybe expect this to continue? I am not trying to cling to too much hope especially for the Lehigh Valley... but hard not to at least keep peeking now

12Z GFS = Boom!

I've noticed over the years that 500mb jet streaks / vorticity "ribbons" coming in over the western ridge that go over Yellowstone tend to give us good Miller A events. Not anything scientific, just an sign that I look for.

I'm still waiting for the one on 1/7 and the pattern change to colder weather on 1/11

A large part of what is allowing the shortwave energy to dig more and earlier is the ridge out west is more amplified/steeper than earlier runs. Also better interaction among the different pieces of vorticity. Not sure how much further west it can go unless there are more corrections to come in the upper levels- like the ridge axis being further west. Personally, I am fine with how it is currently modeled.. maybe a tad further west.

CMc shows a small wave hitting the area on Saturday afternoon potentially accumulating 1-2 inches!

Add the 12z Canadian to the list. Wraps up the storm just too late for the Philly area but north of I-80 gets the goods. Huge shift from a nothingburger at 0z.

We tried to tell em about the 18th. Here we are. Very interesting indeed. we watch closely

Canadian has an inv low pressure dong overhead.

Agreed. Unlike the HECS it had for tomorrow, it has some support this time. Still a long ways to go, though. Patience!

If this were to verify with hardly any -PNA upcoming, that would increase the chance vs earlier runs that Jan will end up net +PNA just like all -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 have transitioned to in Jan.

The 12z GEM is OTS w/ barely a skiff in NC. We need to dig through that GFS run, and see if it is doing something weird. That said, the 6z Euro has the GFS solution, but it is east of the 12z GFS track.

What are your thoughts on how this shake’s out? Always appreciate your insights

Seems a nice pasting albeit only 1-3” I’ll take it . Hopefully MLK works out

Yep, trough axis gave it a chance to come up and not out. a little more dig on HH and beyond, and we might get into a notable event. Even as depicted on nooner, I think LSV and easters would approve