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Hey man, have you tried their deep orbit stout that's out right now? Talk about a sipper.....could enjoy that thing over an hour in front of the fire.

It looks like both the 18z euro and euro terminator nudged south.

I wouldn’t go higher than 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to I-80 right now because of uncertainty and models like the RGEM. It’s possible the GFS is right but it’s wiser to hedge toward how SWFEs usually are which is they try to amp and trend north unless there’s the brick confluence wall to stop them, and sneaky warm layers that try to move in quicker than expected. But the GFS is another possibility if we can catch a break with a further south transfer and decent coastal development, in which case those 12-18” amounts really can happen. North of the city especially I-84 corridor I think is a lock for 12”+. We’re lucky this is a SWFE setup where it’s running into a huge overrunning dome/high pressure which means even the amped models dump 6-8” before changing over and again-the sleet will definitely have its own impact and thicken up the snow pack.

GFS just has been so constant..... it will need to be throw out with the NAM if it's wrong on this.

The further north track of this winter storm will allow a thick layer of cloud cover to build in throughout the night that will keep us much warmer than we thought 2 or 3 days ago. Lows will be in the -10Fs but with no wind we`ll just be uncomfortably cold versus dangerously cold

While everyone dissects and bisects the Euro, I’m warming up the liver for Other Half tomorrow.

I busted out laughing when I saw this. Exactly how I feel

Euro trending towards the GFS dying that primary out faster. Been the theme of the day. Couple more ticks like that an it's showtime!!! See y'all at 9pm for the nam

18z Euro snow- CTP close up

It was a “here, damn” map

all i want out of this at this point is sleet

Ouch.

Ice numbers have gone up since the morning runs so it is some what cooler throughout the day.

Indeed! These 2 panels are beautiful

More is sleet you can see the sleet panels is weird euro doesn’t display sleet correctly on the map.

1/22 18z Euro Total QPF storm NYC : 1,2 Total snow / sleet (10:1) 9.2

IDC about the snow maps. The fact that the euro. Trended towards GFS. Was enough for me. . Hope the other models follow suit!

I'd call that a slight step towards the GFS. Which most of us should be happy with stopping the trend.

Mostly slower, what that means yet, I'm not sure. It's getting pretty locked in on the synoptic evolution it seems. A deceleration in the dProg/dT

That's a wild amount of zr. Is it legitimate, or are we thinking more of that falls as sleet?

Long way left to go. 9.4 at Dulles at 6 PM is pretty sweet .

8-12” is a lock. If we mix, that’s where we end up, which is still a big time storm. If we don’t mix or mix later, 12”-24”+ is possible. Stop stressing. A large snowstorm is coming.

Uh did the EURO OP just do a crush job as well?