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Borderline temps - could be similar to last weeks event - need any HP to stay in place with blocking - not showing that yet

The thundersnow storm i had last Feb made the valentine's squall look like a flizzard. I got over an inch of snow in about 7 minutes along with intense lightning and strong wind.

Oh I know, just some jest on this morning as I frolick in my 0.4" of fresh snow before it disappears within the hour. Those plot look great, but seem to never pan out over the past few years. Definitely raise more questions than answers it seems...

Zero drought here, grass is muddy

And sure enough... My little IP cams had clips of some cars driving nearby at around 10 pm and nada, and then another clip around 12:35 am and there was the dusting on the car, after which a pickup with a salt spreader came through my parking lot around 2 am. Ended up with a 0.1" surprise on my car and colder surfaces like the mulch and some grass. Bottomed out at 27 this morning and am currently at my high (so far) of 39. I did have some white rain and ZR at around 10 am this morning, where the sun did pop out about 30 minutes later but has since retreated behind some clouds at post time.

To comment on the actual dynamics of next week I haven't really checked the models much as I was outside for 11 hours yesterday but looks like lots of NS vorticity flying around so models wont have a great handle on events. Either way we have the cold in place and a good upper air pattern so all we need is to get lucky. Additionally, if we get that bowling ball over us our lapse rates would be insane enough to help out any system that does form (12z GFS for example).

This is funny, and depressingly accurate. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry. Where’s Sarah McLachlan when I need her?

Please god lets have this somehow be right because look at this sounding I don't know how to draw up a better one. Gets over an inch of snow per hour for six hours and a storm total of 8 inches. Would probably go down as my favorite event if it happened verbatim

Snow was sparse, but those winters were on average much colder than than the below average snowfall winters of recent. A colder/dryer look versus the warmer that we've become accustomed to. The warmest winter in all of the 80s for the Northeast would've been the 4th coldest of the past 10 years.

MJO is real, but it’s a lot more complicated then just showing those charts.

Sharing as much as I can from Chicago. We're getting another few inches tonight on top of what we've already been getting starting a week ago.

Canadian has something too. Probably timing differences, but the EPS was just a day or less later.

The voodoo of MJO plots can be lumped into the likes of tarriffs and corporate tax breaks....

of misfit toys. Nobody wants a GFS snowstorm.

Last winter's January 3rd snow squall was awesome. Had 2 instances of thunder snow (with lightning flashes!) as it switched from graupel to dendrites. Just wish it lasted a bit longer to get accumulations above .4 of an inch

Well, the Euro really isnt any better so at least we have one model. It’s gonna bounce around. It’s a ways off anyway. We know the game.

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1/2” I guess? not going to measure, but it is a nice little refresher.

Yeah, the combination of the warmest SSTs on record for the month of November across sections of the WPAC are boosting the Pacific Jet due to the thermal gradient with the Asia. Plus the record SST warmth around Australia and the Maritime Continent keeping the forcing going in the MJO 4-7 regions also contribute to a faster Pacific Jet. It looks like the long range EPS retrogrades the ridge back to the Aleutians while the ridge is still in the West. Eventually, a jet extension will probably push that ridge further east at least for a time. We also have the falling AAM lag which will lower heights near Greenland later in the month. EPS Strong MJO 4-7 forcing into mid-December

Definitely an active pattern with a lot of things to watch! Hopefully we can lock one of these in! .

All obs this year for me are from Fallston, MD - 11/30 - T 12/2 - A little frz rain to start - trees and car glazed - but 35 and rain for most of event 12/5 - T (dusting from a few hours of flurries as dry cold death air ate any chance of anything else north of BWI 12/6 - .3” surprise overnight light snow into early AM - covered all surfaces and whitened the fields Season total - .3”

Gfs like the cold

Rather be a strike out at this range lol. As long as it’s close.

I'd love to see how the weenies measure over there- slant sticking at 45 degrees or something.

For now, the GFS is on an island..