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I get it totally. Just trying to pull out of you why you tossed the 6z Euro and Ens in favor of the GFS

Yeah I dont trust that we just miss on the system. Early in the season so any snow is a bonus. Sunday maybe a mess for a bit before the changeover. NAM shows it barely getting above freezing when the best precip is in the area. We know how the warmth always seems to win though.

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way.

I believe @GaWx had a detailed post about the benefits of a favorable phase(s) closer to the COD, versus high amplitude.

Moisture from bodies of water or existing precipitation is essential to raise the dew point temperature and saturate the boundary layer. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Snow squalls are convective events, and CAPE is a significant discriminator between squalls and other snow events. Higher CAPE values indicate a greater potential for deep vertical growth. Time of occurrence: Because they are convective, snow squalls most often happen during daylight hours, with 69% of events occurring between 1300 and 2300 UTC. Radar parameters Reflectivity: Snow squalls typically show reflectivity values greater than 30 dBZ. Radial velocity: Maximum radial velocities in excess of 30 knots are another indicator. Atmospheric parameters Isallobaric effects: Strong surface isallobaric (pressure rise/fall) couplets, combined with steep near-surface lapse rates, contribute to the conditions that produce a squall. 0–2 km layer: The stability of the 0–2 km AGL layer is a factor in snow squall development.

Happy Black Friday to those that celebrate with their wallets! Here’s just a brief run-down of Kuch maps from recent model runs: 12z HRRR, 12z 4K NAM, and 6z Euro.

I legit lol'd at this one...

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine!

Kinda like one of those streamers with a little bit of convergence coming in with a weak surface trough. I guess more like a cold front. The other day when I looked, it seemed fairly dry, but I think Steve posted a model that showed some snow showers.

Hope 12z euro comes back. All I was saying, is that if I put my forecast hat on… It looked dicey down there even under the heaviest stuff. Trust me, there’s nobody else on this planet who wants things to break right more than me.

My grandfather used to say, "don't piss this a way", Piscataway..." Anyway, one inch or six inches, it looks like at least most of us see accumulating snow on Tuesday.

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

I love you man. No fighting just my opinion. I hope Euro Ens nail this.

Is it a windex thing if it is a lake effect streamer?

Yep I’ll give you that. May get some SHSN today.

Jeez relax. It’s a joke. You never see me insult people or curse at them.

Gotta give props to the quality of this antecedent airmass, dry and cold surfaces will be a refreshing change of pace from watching white rain fall into puddles

Came out to check progress on my new home at guess what...it's SNOWING!!

Windy and nippy out there. Birds better use a shitload of Barkley today.....

Stay safe, everyone!

Oh and he will tell me its the bong. Windsexy day for many AWT

The only way you know to post. Sad that you put yourself on such a popely standing with your meh track record

Yeah, if it rockets through the cold phases, it won't do anything for us. A slow crawl hugging COD would extend cold risk for us.

17 this morning in the Valley. We could see a bit more widespread NWFS Sunday evening. Another chance on Tuesday night .