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37.6 low back home , in California this week where it’s mid 90s .

Hate seeing that convection showing up on the coast, that typically screws us in these tropical setups. Ive seen this dozens of times with a tropical system going west of the apps retrograding into a large non-tropical low where days of heavy rain modeled ends up as a singular line of strong storms while the coast gets inches of rain and the convection sits there. This is not a great setup for prolonged rain in the piedmont of NC. Eastern slopes of mountains will get pummeled though

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

I’m wondering if 2020’s year of fiasco is the reason this name isn’t retired lol. I was sure Isiaisis was retired after the damage it did in the NE in 2020 but usually the state governments or FEMA departments need to issue requests for retirement and probably due to everything else going on they never did so

closing in on +3.5

Really mixed bag. Anything's possible, but e02 is looking good.

Yeah, convection will likely win the battle and pull/consolidate the llc, but it may take time (12+ hrs) before this really starts taking off

Same thing here. On the phone and hear a huge crash next door. 3 huge oak trees all went down and only missed their house because 2 of them landed on another tree and held them up.

lol, I was waiting for this post. What a magical place

31.8 Had to turn on the heat this morning. House was down to 61 and my 6 month old definitely was feeling it

Thanks. But it's actually the change from October's run from September's. Going in the right direction for many.

44.9F the low here.

Recon seems to be finding a broad center and 1002mb. 43kt FL. Looks prettier on satellite than it its strength would imply- still wouldn't be surprised to see it take off today.

Euro seasonal latest snowfall change this run vs last courtesy Weather Will in the MA forum. No complaints from me!

33, truck froze over, and spotty spots on the grass. Great feel. The foliage will really pop now.

I remember being on the phone and watching a huge tree come down behind my backyard. That was an intense few hours. Luckily up here the heavy rain and intense winds are completely separate in tropical systems.

It has been a great stretch. Noticed there was some frost on the rooftops yesterday morning. That was a great write-up from CLE... not often the Chagrin area get the same snowfall as the Chardon area.

WWWLT If I did that it’d be 45° in here by Halloween

I think that is implicit in the tone of the NHC public products, but yea...I mean, it won't even matter in terms of surge.

35 this morning, Didn't see any frost.

Latest Snow anomaly map from EURO seasonal. Source: Severe Weather Europe https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-forecast-october-update-colder-snowier-shift-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Luckily, my power was only out for 24 hrs. Took down a bunch of trees. But borderline TS to Cat 1 systems don’t get retired unless they cause historic flooding like Agnes in 1972.

HWRF slams the escarpment on rainfall. A further east track sets up nearly perfect enhanced southeast flow. It bumps PWATs up to nearly 2" with 30-40kt southeast winds at 925mb.

Recon will tell us a lot here shortly. If this is going to make a run at a major, the bones need to be there now. A tight developing core would mean this likely goes major. Anything strung out and it probably doesn’t have time before shear inhibits it