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NSF NCAR researchers have confirmed that the record-breaking wind gust of 219 kts (252 mph) recorded in Melissa was accurate after completing their analysis. https://news.ucar.edu/133047/record-breaking-winds-confirmed-hurricane-melissa

I’m scared https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/19/weather/polar-vortex-cold-snowy-december-stratosphere

They are actually making snow right now. And yeah…they will only be opening trails off of two lower lifts for now. I would still think they would start blasting on Conifer in a week or so if temps allow

Tons of rain on the radar, but NO RAIN in central Texas. There's one thing we do damn well - We are The Boss, when it comes to Drought down here. No one does Drought like central Texas. La Nina's helpin us out too, deflecting storm tracks safely away from my backyard. I'll forecast this storm. No one does this like yours truly down here, and I have only been here 7 years. Dallas, They will have frantic water rescues by 3am. 3 to 9 inches easily. Most of the rain will pass safely over Austin. We *MIGHT* eke out half an inch. Yeah, that really helps. We are now the fastest growing megalopolis (Dallas/Austin/Buda/Kyle/SanMarcos/San Antonio) in the World. We passed Dubai and the entire UAE last year. WE WILL RUN OUT OF WATER. When THAT happens, water will be far more expensive than gasoline. Every major business is heading for Austin. This place is already a madhouse in rush hour. It's gonna get MUCH, MUCH worse. Everyone in New York City is heading down here, too. We'll add 3 million in the next 12 months! New Yorkers can't stand the snow and the cold, that is why so many people are suddenly moving out of NYC. All that snow is bad for business up there. Austin does not get snow. We don't get rain, either. Not much. Well north usually gets the rain. That would be Dallas, Oklahoma and Missouri, Louisiana. You know what I think? The lack of water in Texas will eventually cause another exodus, this time farther east, to pastures that get much more water, like New Orleans. Nightlife there is stellar, too, and they have casinos. Texas never will. This place is permanently stuck in the 1950s. Except for traffic and water shortages straight out of the 2090s.

Just to edit the pic above ill post it here,wasnt aware i cut the dates out

Forecast has clouds increasing. If that happens won't be a cold night.

Typically Dec in Mid/Tn is the wettest month of the year,its even wetter in West Tn into the Ozarks. Take these maps with a grain of this far out,probably from Rossby,Kelvin Waves,,but at least the Euro is showing something similar,but once again a grain of salt this far out

Good work and analysis man ! I'm right with you on your thoughts regarding the Cold Shots as well buddy.

32 already. Cold night incoming?

Yep..I.m at 1.6" . Some Locations in Western Lee County in the Valley are at 4 inches.

this would be pretty amazing in person. some snow showers in the mountains

What a miserable person. Sad.

He will continue to get beat up as the pocket compresses/collapses due to poor OL play. Terrible job by EDC and also Harbaugh who refuses to explore other options at guard. Again, Hello Ben Cleveland?- a dude Harbaugh was so fired up over and wanted to trade up to get if necessary 5 years ago on draft day. He rots on the bench and remains in the doghouse because Harbaugh doesnt like how he practices. So we continue to see the Faalele embarrassment week after week. Vorhees is almost as bad.

This literally made my day in all ways!!

Do you think there could be a wave spacing issue given the signal for something in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week? I guess that should be enough to let Saturday do its thing but it's a little close I'd say. Will probably come down to what that midweek piece of energy does.

Last year's model trend was to dry everything out as the event got closer. Seems like that hasn't changed.

I’m eyeing it only because UVA has a date with destiny that Saturday. Snow game would be amazing but unlikely. Cold rain game would suck. Kinda hoping it just poofs.

100% chance of weather!

It's more the 29th ... but yeah. It's too low confidence to know about track and amplitude - the latter's probably too strong in this run though. Might be the first multi-region/full synoptic event of the season; don't need it to be heading for the 980s in order to do it. This is open wave NJ model low. They can bomb so we can't through the idea away entirely, but given to the progressive nature ... a middling system fits better.

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

Good place for it at 11days out…if its even real.

Friday evening, I'll start the Dec thread due to already discussed Stratwarm and its impact as a pattern changer-plunger in North America. That way I can add the CPC week 3-4 outlook and any D8-14 hazards which I suspect will be developing in the east, beyond lake effect.

AIF’s are cold and dry for that . OTS

I saw that this AM. I figured they hadn't even started making snow. I think I heard they plan to have the new summit lift online by December 8. I guess that took pressure off making snow to summit.