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I've seen this movie before... GFS being the coldest solution rarely works out, but this airmass is super cold... I still think we see a lot of sleet at least in the 95 corridor. Good thing is the NAM puts down 8-12" of snow before that.

European model was Southeast -European ensembles were…obviously the Ukie... even the CMC was more southeast even though it brings still mostly mixing.

Nobody going to post snow maps for CMC? Is it bad and we're avoiding it?

Updated

Insanely quick compared to everything else? .

warmest panel

The GFS doesn't see mid level thermals as well as the Euro or NAM...that is a known thing

I did 3 miles in the height of the Valentines Day storm 2007. Brutal.

Not a huge change on the ICON ensembles but it does look like a more coastal and less WV situation for MSLP.

It would be ideal -double digit snow and then sleet to end. Perfect -give us that -call it a day

the sleet gets stalled out around queens and manhattan it could be a trend overall a good run 8-10 inches followed by some sleet city and south

1/22 12Z GGEM total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1)

Yeah but every event is different. I'm going with wall of heavy snow to sleet and 6-10" region wide with locals 12+ Leaning on the colder side too. The scope and intensity of this airmass is much larger than what we're used to. It wouldn't surprise me to see models trend colder

AIGFS has the primary in WV vs. legacy GFS Georgia/Alabama border. What's 800 miles between friends lol?

Looks like light snow the 12 hrs freezing rain then rain then flash freeze.

I was actually looking at the Canadian and thought I was looking at the gfs. But the Canadian and Euro both have it. That's for another time and thread.

It definitely won't see the mid level warm layers as well as the euro/nam when we get closer... but could it be correct about a less amplified system? Sure. Would I stake anything I care about on it...no.

doesnt appear to be any issues with the thermals even with the low being that close

Cmc

Canadian weakens the primary faster and colder up top vs. its 0Z run. Pretty much all I care about from that model.

Correct, its about trends. The north ticks have stopped for now. I would count on some sleet in the NYC metro areas and SW/S/SE. But rain is also off the table.

cmc is south by about 20 miles

...or nothing at all.