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Yesterday’s Euro: phase 8 starts 12/14: Today’s Euro: phase 8 starts 10 days earlier, 12/4:

The dews were always for a day ahead of a couple of cutters.

if looking at RMM, the left of the COD is usually a cold signal as well

One day…as we thought. And I’m fine with that.

I think a big part of the reason we lost the SER in early Dec is the storm system D5-6 ended up much less amped and not like a bomb models shows 3-4-5 days ago. Now of course they try to do the same thing with the ensuing storm, once again I am inclined to lean flatter as that has been the trend seemingly forever. If we don't get a monster cutter into the Lakes or MW the SER will keep verifying weaker in the medium range. The question is if the LR is going too weak on it. If we do blast hard into phase 8, that will certainly help

And even that is muting and shrinking.

I think it is safe to say these haven't been good past week 1. Also, saying anything is consistent day 14/15 is just silly

60F temps or a tad higher tomorrow for wolfie.

I meant for a sheared POS well to the south

Didn’t expect it to. But it’s a couple days later now.

LOT AFD

BC version has it entering the COD on Xmas eve.

AI has been getting colder also

Looks icy at this range

This didn’t age well.

We didn't have MJO phase 8 in January of 1990. it was December 1989. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

MJO moving along Great sign

Better hope it’s not the 6z gfs or AI stuff

Used to be a special snowy day . Miss those days

Dec 5. Just like the good ole days.

Nice to wake up to this... looking like a snowy Thanksgiving day. HZ012>014-089-251430- /O.EXB.KCLE.WS.A.0006.251127T1200Z-251129T0000Z/ Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Ashtabula Lakeshore- Including the cities of Ashtabula, Jefferson, Willowick, South Russell, Roaming Shores, Eastlake, Middlefield, Wickliffe, Geneva, Mentor, Chardon, Bainbridge, Chesterland, Orwell, Willoughby, Conneaut, Burton, Andover, and Painesville 122 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations over 8 inches are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Ashtabula Inland, Ashtabula Lakeshore, Geauga, and Lake Counties.

It looks transient and more like a reshuffle though on the GEPS/EPS, you can see D15-16 already it seems a ridge is trying to begin popping again in W Canada or along the coast. I'd be surprised if we have that rabid of an MJO wave going into 8 that we see a pattern like that, though once in a great while we've seen a raging -PNA/+AO/NAO with a phase 8 MJO, I think maybe January of 1990 we did, but I'm not sure if its ever been with a wave potentially that strong.