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I wouldn't say busted completely. I was driving up to Mt Airy to attend the Blue Ridge Baptist Camp Meeting where a friend was preaching. The clouds were looking ominous and all heck let loose just past where 52 breaks off to go into the town. I'm 73 and I have never ever had to pull off the highway because I couldn't see...until then. Five feet was the furthest that I could see in front of me. I was expecting to run into a car or get hit from behind. I found a side road to exit off onto to wait out the storm. When I got back onto the highway there was debris scattered everywhere, with up to 4 inch branches down. I'm a storm spotter and I'd definitely classify that as a severe storm.

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

Goose eggs here from those storms yesterday. Watering my garden & lawn, so it will pour tonight. Overnight low of 72.

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

6z GFS keeps the northern half of NC under 1/2” QPF through end of June. Euro would’ve been the same if it didn’t develop and slide an inland hurricane through, lmao

Looks like the warmth backs off starting Monday with temperatures closer to seasonable for the next 5 to 10 days. Could still sneak in a few 90° days along the way. But most days probably staying in the 80s after this current heatwave ends.

Yeah, I know. Super jealous.

Same here, just torched. Hoping for some rain out of tonight’s front passing

If you dont believe me, then maybe you'll believe the american meteorological society. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/4/2010waf2222363_1.xml

We've been fine with rain up at Pit2. I'm really hoping to get some here on the south coast though........the "lawn" at the new Pit is a disaster. The scourge of the neighborhood. lol

57 degrees this morning. Lets see what the day brings.

Congrats Cape Cod.

Probably flash flood potential in NNe too along with the SVR that Vortex noted.

Thursday is looking particularly interesting and it's truly worth keeping an eye on. Keyword elevated mixed layer. That's the main dynamic that keeps us safe out here east of the mighty mississipp and why we almost never see the big outbreaks the central and western united states sees. If it truly surges out ahead, this absolutely could be one for the record books. Contrary to popular belief It's not the mountains, the ocean breeze or lack of unmodified gulf air, thst prevents Central and Western type outbreaks from occurring this far east . EML lag is the true culprit. if we have the EML we're capable of achieving Central and Western United States type indices ,including those gargantuan fat capes in excess of 4000jkg that the MA/NE only see every thirty to forty years.

It's not unusual for me to step away for work and play, tis the season. When it comes to any kind of digital media less is better, so good for you. The concrete reality is, that there's a million different better and healthier ways you can spend time than being online. It's bad for the body and mind.I don't think thst there was any coincidence to the fact that I spent three weeks laid up with bodily injury early this spring. after leading the post count by a large margin, just a few weeks prior. The older I get, the more I notice a correlation between sedentary behavior and emotional and physical discomfort. That said, you're an integral part of this forum and an OG and it wouldn't be the same without you.

Will this convince WxWiz that an EML is not required for SIGTOR? Scott still be like "MEH!" I have a hard time believing that something solid will not occur w/ those dynamics in place in mid-June in the region.

Stormnet ringing bells for us Thursday. For those unaware, Stormnet is a new AI tool for SVWX forecasting that came out this year and has performed exceptionally well. Green is about equivalent to an SPC slight or enhanced, so this is quite a strong signal for d5. I know some may hesitate due to relatively modest forecast EMLs, but globals tend to underestimate thermos, and with the forecast shear (60-70+ EBWD and 300+ 3k SRH), I wouldn't want to count anything out. We await the king NAM.

Since I'm back home in Boston, I've mostly been following our weather, but I wanted to stop by here. Obviously, insanely potent jet for this time of year, with 100+ kt on Wednesday over the Midwest and nearly 100kt as it takes on a negative tilt on Thursday over NE, both per 00z euro. The GooFuS solution favors you all with the trough swinging down a little bit more and overspreading the region with 40-50kt flow, which is good for this time of year. It should be noted that with these super-fast (speed and translation) punching jets, you don't need to be right in the centroid to see good storms. Deep-layer shear should be pretty good due to the strength of the jet, although it remains to be seen whether the LLJ and associated SRH will reach down to MA. Attached is a model sounding at BWI at 18z from the 00z GFS. 41 EBWD supportive of supercells, but, as you can see, it's mostly speed shear with no real turning with height due to a very modest 850mb jet. CAPE is skinny on this sounding in particular, but I wouldn't worry, as many others were 1000-1500+, and globals tend to underestimate thermos anyways. We will have to wait for the SVWX king, the NAM, to bring us the goods.

NNE looks good for short bow segments and supercells today. What is interesting is 2-5am Mon in eastern SNE. Nice theta-e noses at 925 and 850 and wind fields 700 and below ramp up nicely just ahead of the well-defined trough axis. 00z RRFS and to a lesser extent HRRR show decent tstms firing ern MA and RI. LTG density is solid. So maybe CoastalWx can get shaken out of bed w/ a +CG super crash! LOL.

Yes. I see that. Noted on the 00z ECMWF, very strong WAA occurs on Thu during the day with the passage of the WF (that's classic for a big tor day). Nice nose of above avg 850 temp 00z 6/19 (attached). Winds at 500 as high at 95 kt (attached) and 300 winds as high as 115 kt? Tell me something big can *not* happen w/ these kind of wind anomalies and such a strong sfc low in srn Quebec in June! Derecho instead of Scott spinners here perhaps. Looks better to SW of the region. Since set ups like this are rare here, we don't know the full range of possibilities. We may be surprised.

Monday and Tuesday look to be a sharp contrast from this week's heat and humidity with low dews and 50's at night. Then Wed-Friday maybe some rain chances as the humidity picks back up?

Dry begets dry.

Busy Weather Day Sunday

what an awesome NBA finals. Man The Knicks were on fire 15-1 in the last 16 games. As much I don't like Dolan, the owner, but that team was sick. Great comebacks through out the finals. OG and Brunson are a scary duo

Was in Brier Creek this afternoon and it rained enough at the intersection of BC Pkwy and Glenwood to wet the road and had to use my wipers twice, but a mile away bone dry. Thought something may pop this evening but no dice. onto another hot one sunday.