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Still … have to be a nimrod not to be impressed with that anomaly

good

Should be here before 10

Hey Larry, I agree it's probably not factored in. I was looking at the 18z GFS ensemble and that is really not much big below average temps in the first 5 days of the month. Then we really amp the SE ridge, so some places around DC could be +3 to +5 by mid month. By the 15th, the pattern is changing but it's still above average in the northeast. That means we need a really cold 2nd half of the month for the CPC's forecast to verify. I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a long NG contract Future. The reason why it would be March and not Feb is volume starts dwindling on the Feb contract around Jan 24th, and the run may go through the end of the month. I've seen enough CPC monthly stuff to know that they do have pretty high accuracy.

Yeah you can see it saturates right away . Low dew depressions

I see they finally changed their Tune a bit.

Snowing right on edge of radar too in Litchfield County . Thought we’d virga longer

I plead the 5th

Zzzz

Not feeling too great up here, though the setup did seem good just a few hours ago. Snow growth is very poor.

Well that’s exactly what I mentioned lol other than NJ

looks pretty crappy and chopped up but thats what it's supposed to be, should fill in over SNE over the next few hours. You can already see the development happening over litchfield county and Berkshires as well as CNJ

Always

Yeah, that doesn’t even do it justice. It’s puking snow

The morning after a 1-3” storm I looked at the models and was shocked .

Just PUMMELLED https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

Mixture of everything and hard to capture on camera with the wind. It’s been about 50-50 dendrites and smaller flakes on average. Absolutely ripping

Sounds like you found the key to the liquor cabinet...

Looks like snow started into NW CT up into Berks . Radar looks solid

Hey Chuck, I’d say no. It’s hard for NG to bake in an extreme that’s essentially in fantasyland/during when model skill is pretty limited. So, I feel confident that it would rise substantially in advance of the very cold should it actually start to show up in late week two of the EPS and GEFS means or even in week 3 of the EW/ext GEFS in the bulk of the E US. However, even if that were to occur, there’s the possibility that it could fall a good bit more before the extreme cold shows up and prices start to rise. The ensemble mean HDDs continue to drop. The 18Z GEFss lost a whopping 14 HDDs vs the 12Z! But even though HDDs keep dropping, the trajectory continues to show a sharp climb late in week 2 to NN:

The N stream is definitely trying to tug those isobars back and invert a trough. But aside from that scenario, this thing needs to go about 80 yards with 15s remaining and no timeouts. But like Tip said, we need a big chunk play out of bounds and then a hail mary.

Jan 2015 pulled it off....