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yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them. it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century...then fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing. then, few actually understood it but it sure sounding like some amazing thing "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation" zomb! in reality, few understood(stand) it. there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means. and it is different for each, D.C., Boston, and Caribou. it's a moving parts access. it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - in this, your heart. it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it. but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e. all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference. what you're saying above? that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference. sorry just venting

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.

Remind me what that is again? I've seen and heard stories about it.

Pretty uncommon for short-range oscillations like the PNA to remain strongly in either state for a whole month. I wouldn't put too much weight on this negative flip, though it might explain the great lakes track that seems more likely during the latter half of nov. and perhaps during the first week of dec.

Agreed, it gets overstated way too much, especially wen it comes to worrying which phase the NAO is in. I get that a -NAO has a higher correlation to cold/snow versus a +NAO, but it's not a significantly higher correlation. What's most important is the structure of the NAO, placement of the pressure anomalies, and how the NAO is transitioning. I believe there is a much stronger correlation to snowfall with respect to a transitioning NAO versus a static state NAO

Warm waters into the W pac. from this westerly wind burst are priming the ENSO for a real shift come the next big event.

I promise not to clog the thread lol but did want to share these here. It’s so weird to have today feel like January. Just a whole different world up here. I don’t have a good measuring spot yet but will try to get a snow board today. Been around 3” in the last few days.

I'm not talking about anything beyond day 7 fantasy. Maybe he is.

I don't recall it at all. I only knew about last night's due to social media. Didn't really exist back then.

Watch it slip away.

I might not be able to work today It feels like January. Whole different world.

Yeah, I think that's the one scenario where you have no other choice. But I guess my question would still be what the other option is. Underground tunnel just to get back to customs seems a tad $$$$. Maybe PenFed could sponsor it

I think that's the one I saw on my way to canada.. if it was it was epic and unexpected

This seems reasonable. I think this early December cold wave is mainly driven by high frequency signals, mainly the 7 phase MJO, but i think its too early for the SSW to be having any impact. Roundy thinks there will be some warmth in late December as the MJO move back towards 1 and 2 (abeit prolonged due to an easterly eq. Rossby wave continuing convection in region 7), but it seems like it may have a weaker signal at that point so influences from things like the SSW on top of the low-frequency state (troughy in the east) would lead so something like this.

Like I said…NAO overrated more times than not lately for us.

i was told it was something to watch

If indeed weak La Niña this winter? should snowfall departures be similar?

Too bad the block chews up a potential event next week.

Philly max wind gusts... 00 NOUS41 KPHI 112159 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-120959- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 459 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS FOR NOVEMBER 11, 2025... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City Airport 46 MPH 1130 AM 11/11 ASOS Atlantic City 46 MPH 1240 PM 11/11 NJWXNET 2 ESE Pleasantville 44 MPH 0150 PM 11/11 AWS BRIGANTINE 41 MPH 1117 AM 11/11 CWOP Pleasantville Point 41 MPH 1229 PM 11/11 WXFLOW ...Burlington County... Mount Holly 44 MPH 0326 PM 11/11 ASOS Moorestown 41 MPH 1255 PM 11/11 NJWXNET McGuire AFB 38 MPH 0355 PM 11/11 AWOS ...Camden County... Pennsauken 44 MPH 1200 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Blue Anchor 35 MPH 0210 PM 11/11 RAWS ...Cape May County... 1.2 NW Avalon 52 MPH 0233 PM 11/11 HADS Cape May Harbor 49 MPH 1215 PM 11/11 HADS Cape May 47 MPH 1216 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Villas 45 MPH 0405 AM 11/11 DAVIS Ocean City 41 MPH 0137 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Cape May 39 MPH 1155 AM 11/11 AWOS Dennis Twp. 39 MPH 1225 PM 11/11 NJWXNET West Cape May 38 MPH 0225 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Woodbine Muni 38 MPH 1153 AM 11/11 AWOS North Wildwood 35 MPH 1215 PM 11/11 DAVIS ...Cumberland County... Fortescue 50 MPH 1200 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Millville 46 MPH 0208 PM 11/11 ASOS Upper Deerfield 40 MPH 0125 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Bivalve 37 MPH 1139 AM 11/11 HADS Greenwich 37 MPH 0327 PM 11/11 HADS ...Gloucester County... Kingsway Regional HS 42 MPH 1150 AM 11/11 MESOWEST Logan Twp. 35 MPH 0130 PM 11/11 NJWXNET ...Mercer County... Trenton 43 MPH 0203 PM 11/11 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Perth Amboy 43 MPH 0134 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Deans 36 MPH 1010 AM 11/11 RAWS 1 NNW Yorketown 36 MPH 0254 PM 11/11 AWOS South Amboy 35 MPH 0255 PM 11/11 DAVIS ...Monmouth County... 1.0 NW Keansburg 45 MPH 0139 PM 11/11 HADS Belmar Farmdale 43 MPH 0214 PM 11/11 AWOS SEA BRIGHT 43 MPH 0305 PM 11/11 CWOP Sea Girt 41 MPH 0105 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Monmouth 40 MPH 0153 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Cream Ridge 37 MPH 0135 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Oceanport 35 MPH 0140 PM 11/11 NJWXNET ...Morris County... Randolph 40 MPH 0325 PM 11/11 CWOP Morristown 35 MPH 1245 PM 11/11 AWOS ...Ocean County... Beach Haven 51 MPH 0216 PM 11/11 CWOP Mantoloking 49 MPH 0146 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Rutgers 49 MPH 1202 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Harvey Cedars 47 MPH 0150 PM 11/11 NJWXNET North Beach Haven 46 MPH 0105 PM 11/11 CWOP Tuckerton 45 MPH 1233 PM 11/11 HADS North Beach 42 MPH 1115 AM 11/11 DAVIS Seaside Heights 42 MPH 0209 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Toms River 41 MPH 0107 PM 11/11 AWOS Surf City 40 MPH 0115 PM 11/11 CWOP South Seaside Park 39 MPH 0129 PM 11/11 CWOP Brick 38 MPH 1225 PM 11/11 DAVIS Seaside Park 38 MPH 0315 PM 11/11 CWOP Trixies 38 MPH 0125 PM 11/11 WXFLOW Long Beach Township 37 MPH 0125 PM 11/11 DAVIS Berkeley Twp. 36 MPH 1210 PM 11/11 NJWXNET Ship Bottom 35 MPH 0330 PM 11/11 CWOP ...Salem County... Mannington Twp. 35 MPH 0325 PM 11/11 NJWXNET ...Somerset County... Somerville 35 MPH 0246 PM 11/11 ASOS ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 43 MPH 0140 PM 11/11 NJWXNET ...Warren County... Blairstown 37 MPH 1239 PM 11/11 AWOS Stewartsville 36 MPH 0135 PM 11/11 NJWXNET ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Reading 45 MPH 0110 PM 11/11 ASOS Hopewell 43 MPH 0143 PM 11/11 RAWS LENHARTSVILLE 42 MPH 0315 PM 11/11 CWOP 2 WSW Hamburg 38 MPH 1010 AM 11/11 PADOT Sinking Spring 35 MPH 0113 PM 11/11 CWOP ...Bucks County... Burlington NOS 40 MPH 1224 PM 11/11 NOS-PORTS Doylestown 40 MPH 1240 PM 11/11 ASOS Newbold NOS 39 MPH 0300 PM 11/11 NOS-PORTS Kintnersville 38 MPH 1245 PM 11/11 CWOP Nockamixon 38 MPH 1043 AM 11/11 WXFLOW Perkasie 38 MPH 1235 PM 11/11 AWOS ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 46 MPH 1150 AM 11/11 DEOS2 Coatesville 43 MPH 0315 PM 11/11 AWOS West Chester 43 MPH 0340 PM 11/11 AWOS Marsh Creek 41 MPH 1055 AM 11/11 WXFLOW Octoraro Creek Atglen 40 MPH 1150 AM 11/11 DEOS2 1 ESE West Sadsbury Twp 38 MPH 1225 PM 11/11 PADOT Cochranville 37 MPH 0239 PM 11/11 CWOP Oxford 36 MPH 1215 PM 11/11 CWOP Kimberton 35 MPH 0205 PM 11/11 DAVIS Red Clay Creek Kennett Squar 35 MPH 0105 PM 11/11 DEOS2 ...Delaware County... Upper Chichester 35 MPH 1215 PM 11/11 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 45 MPH 1054 AM 11/11 ASOS Queen City 44 MPH 1235 PM 11/11 AWOS Trexler 41 MPH 1143 AM 11/11 RAWS Macungie 39 MPH 1240 PM 11/11 CWOP New Tripoli 36 MPH 0110 PM 11/11 CWOP COOPERSBURG 35 MPH 1130 AM 11/11 CWOP ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 43 MPH 0825 PM 11/10 ASOS Wind Gap 36 MPH 0850 PM 11/10 PADOT ...Montgomery County... 1 SE Fort Washington 43 MPH 0125 PM 11/11 PADOT Philly Wings Field 39 MPH 0115 PM 11/11 AWOS Pottstown 39 MPH 0109 PM 11/11 ASOS Willow Grove 37 MPH 0200 PM 11/11 CWOP King Of Prussia 35 MPH 1125 AM 11/11 CWOP ...Northampton County... BATH 36 MPH 1021 AM 11/11 CWOP CATASAUQUA 36 MPH 1253 PM 11/11 CWOP ...Philadelphia County... Philadelphia Northeast 53 MPH 0214 PM 11/11 ASOS 1 SSE South Philadelphia 52 MPH 0210 PM 11/11 PADOT Philadelphia International 47 MPH 1154 AM 11/11 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Maritime Stations... Sea Isle City 47 MPH 1245 PM 11/11 HADS 1.1 N Margate City 38 MPH 1257 PM 11/11 HADS &&

Not sure international returns? Think you have to take that absurd contraption back to the cattle call customs line.

This was the EPS max gust tool from the 18z/10 (Monday) cycle for Tue. You can match with the wind gust reports. I added some LSR's as well. If interested click for clarity

Meh - they are quirky and fun. Not sure what the better option is... IIRC you can already walk or take the mini-subway they have in most cases but it's a longer journey.

We snow!

High skill is like the last 3 days, lol. But hey, it is not usually that bad with the end result.

Maybe. But timing of CME and clouds might make it meh.