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We may have a Nino failure if the PDO stays negative................................

might be a dangerous heat wave toward the end of the month

Chilly but dry, beginning to need some moisture here and the extended doesn’t offer much hope. High of 52 today, maybe the last frost of the season tomorrow morning.

I am going to share this post and will add my thoughts to it. Tomorrow will be depend on the development and where the any potential outflow boundaries will setup at tomorrow afternoon/evening. Model guidance continues to show a messy line of supercells to develop across Central MS, right where the 10% tornado risk is currently highlighted in the graphic. The decision to storm chase or not remains up in the air as storm development will be on the edge of the Delta in to I-55 and I-20 area. Best case would be for a supercell to develop to my immediate north and meet it there before sun goes down which would be very doable. Will make the decision tomorrow afternoon as it looks like the storms will be close enough for me to make such a last minute decision.

JFK gusting to 41 this hour. I'm sure a sandblaster on the beaches. Glorious spring on LI. Farmingdale now gusting to 45.

If it's a raging, basin wide El Nino in September, then it's time to just put the coffin in the ground IMO. We might get lucky with a 2016 like fluke, but I wouldn't bet money on it happening twice in a decade.

Well come to think of it that’s true and also true also interesting .

Passed right over K40B. Temp dropped from 70 to 55 F.

Good lord the wind. The ever present howling wind.

it still felt chilly today with low dewpoint and gusty wind..

I know better than to announce last rites in May, but at what point would the look of winter be more or less revealed? Would we know by September wether or not it’ll be a dud or will it be like the last 2 winters where the outlook abruptly shifts around Halloween?

If it's a strong, basin wide El Nino then I mentally prepare for 1998 or 2022-23.

How bad we talking? 22-23?

Hope everyone got their snow fix last year. That's a black dog look for 2026-2027.

86° at CON and MHT today

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

Yeah niños aren’t kind to hurricanes.

Wind gone wild.. some really good gust the last couple of hours

Not sure if this qualifies as an abrose jet event. But it is definitely ripping on the south shore right now. .

That humidity number was a Mount Holly glitch. updated 4:00 PM obs Humidity 27% Wind Speed SW 18 G 35 mph Barometer 29.81 in (1009.3 mb) Dewpoint 46°F (8°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 82°F (28°C) Last update 5 May 3:51 pm EDT

86/54 temp split today. Past 12 month precip about 13" below normal.

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