All Activity

Go clean your musket and let folks have fun.

why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is.

This is just a weird way to squash it and other models have a much different look

A Tale Of Three Disturbances Wednesday & Friday Evenings As Appetizer To Potential Main Course on Sunday Night-Monday While the precise evolution of the procession of storms poised to traverse the country this week still remains somewhat nebulous, the overall progression of the energy being ejected from the Pacific Trough discussed on Sunday is coming into somewhat better focus. As it now stands, there are three distinct pulses of energy that will be ejected into the plains to the south of the block located in the general vicinity of James Bay, Canada. The first two disturbances will be large eviscerated by the compressed height field between the block (north), and the southeast ridge (ridge) in their journey eastward. However, the last in this series of three disturbances has the greatest potential to amplify, since building heights over the western CONUS will allow the medium over the eastern US to relax. Synoptic Overlay The first piece of energy will eject out of the Pacific trough and into the upper plains on Wednesday, where is will amplify. However, it rapidly begins to accentuate by the time it begins to impact the forecast area on Wednesday evening, as it encounters the compressed height field between the PV-James Bay block dyad to the north, and the elevated heights to the southwest owed to the deep, parent Pacific trough. System # 2 then ejects into the plains at a slightly lower latitude on Friday, which allows it to maintain slightly more vigor as it translates eastward relative to the it's predecessor, that tracked immediately underneath the block. This of course allows for the disturbance to maintain a bit more integrity as it approaches the area later on Friday and into the overnight period. This should result in a light to perhaps moderate snowfall over the northern half of southern New England. What is also evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains. The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region. This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge. Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday. While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious. There remains plenty of time to maintain vigilance with respect to this major storm potential to end the week, but in the mains time, there are also disturbances posted to impact the region on Wednesday and Friday evenings. Expected Evolution of Disturbance #1 Light precipitation should break out over the southwestern third of the region around midday tomorrow. Most rainfall or mixed precipitation should rapidly transition to snowfall as the precipitation grows somewhat steadier throughout the afternoon, and potentially moderate for a brief window of time over a narrow corridor. Precipitation should then begin to taper off rapidly after midnight early Thursday AM. First & Final Call for Wednesday Evening Next up is the system slated to impact the region on Friday night. Expected Evolution For Disturbance #2 Given that the parent mid level low pressure area will pass to the north of the area, this system will bring a mixed back of precipitation to the area due to southwest flow aloft. Light snowfall will break out across the western third of the region to the north of approximately I-84 during the midday hours on Friday, with rain likely points south of there. This area of transition should progress to the vicinity of the Mass pike by the early evening hours, as precipitation grows more moderate in intensity. Precipitation will then begin to taper off from west to east during the mid evening hours, and throughout eastern sections by shortly after midnight. Any residual precipitation should be ending by dawn on Saturday. Stay tuned for more a final look at the Friday potential on Thursday, and an update on the weekend potential if necessary on Friday. First Call For Friday Night

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains. The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region. This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge. Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday. While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

stop looking at the median

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html First Call For Friday Night

If it goes as currently modeled on hi res it will be snowing here 1- 2 hours earlier than 200’ in lower spots . Or at least snowing and accumulating at 32.5 vs snowing at 35 .

It was unreal cars and trucks in people’s yards completely covered over by snow! The crazy thing was they tried to keep the resort open as long as they could by shutting down the top of the mountain and allowing mid and lower elevation skiing, but even that got shut down early and was closed the next day. Had to wait a couple days to be able to get back on the slopes. Fortunately for me it was Spring Break and I had the whole week! I did get a refund for the days they were shut down, so that was good! That was my first experience with thundersnow. It was literally snowing so hard on the lift rides up you would have over an inch of snow on your jackets or the seats by the time you would reach the dismount! They closed it shortly thereafter this and I have to believe it was probably close to 6in per hour rates. The ride on the lift was only around around 10min or so.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html First & Final Call for Wednesday Evening

lol what. Again, I’m calling it like I see it. You can choose to ignore the euro suite, I’m not. It’s a factor, sorry

It depends on location and rates. Earlier it was snowing at Ptown and raining in Tolland. Cold drains in from the N and NE.

omg it's 5 days out and we didn't lose the storm! Jeez you guys act like babies sometimes. Let it play out

I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday. There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then

1-3” for you at 1,000ft. Could see a sharp gradient from hilltop to like 300ft too. Like half inch slush at bottom vs 2.2” paste up at your spot. But man those thermals are tight. I’d toss 10:1 maps far and wide in this… what do the positive snow depth maps look like?

You have 18z Euro maps?

The Euro Ai is a wobble away from where it was earlier. Tons of potential with this system, some beautiful classic off hour model quite meltdowns happening. Somethings never change. .

In light of the other operational models having a storm along with both AI's, I don't believe the Euro is that much better in light of the fails it's had over recent years. JI, or anyone else, can run into a corner, crawl up into a ball, and rock back and forth incessantly if he/she wants, but there's going to be a storm. And it will drop 10"+ somewhere, exact location tbd imho.

We’re about to see another slow torturous trend of a miss huh? Haha

It's down to 34 already!

Good call earlier.

AIFS median was a horrific drop, though. Won’t post since there are minors but DCA went from a median of like 5.5” down to 2”

Counted about 21 members at 18Z with accumulation v. 9 members at 12Z.

One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events. A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream. This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment. It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w. Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.