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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I don't even think it will be the warmest November this decade. 2020, 2022, and 2024 set the bar so high. Early returns tell me it won't be as warm as those years. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Brilliant. Thankfully, it can still get cold enough to snow. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
citation needed -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
it needs to be cold for snow -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
BuffaloWeather replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
November might set records for warmest on record across many locations. -
Interesting. WPa has historically been pretty big a winner with SSW's https://x.com/wallcloud/status/2116926407431594033
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There are way too many individual examples that go against this, though. It's just not that simple. For example, for much of the Pacific Northwest, Feb/Mar has gotten colder and snowier in the past decade or so. Counter the global temperature trend. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's not a one to one relationship when you're talking about something like snowfall at a specific location. -
Yeah this work week is a torch. Might as well get out and enjoy it.
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May I have another.
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You will absolutely get snow. Just less of it than normal. And a massive OVER for 20" of snow on bos roof in March.
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3rd warmest October on record at KIND
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Keep in mind a few things. My expectations are set for a mild winter. The last 2 were cold and a raging nino is in place. Its gonna be mild. My hopes are on a few good snowstorms as often are the case in Nino. Thinking we see about a 30 inch winter here. More importantly, this is my FAVORITE time of the year. I obviously prefer snow but no weather ruins the Christmas season for me (and yes lm one of those where Christmas runs November thru mid January lol). January and beyond is when my patience wears thin and I get very grumpy if its not snowing.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
he had 90s last march lol -
I think this winter depends on whether we can time one or two big El Niño loaded systems with some cold air and a good track, and that probably happens in late Jan or Feb. 97-98 obviously we couldn’t and 23-24 either, but that was a weird Nino/background Nina hybrid season. I would like to see something happen in December because I always hate going past New Years hoping for a snowy winter generally but zippo in December. It rarely works out.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
SnowenOutThere replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Not necessarily. This would work if the event was random, however, we have strong evidence that our climatology issues are related to human caused climate change. Therefore, it will most likely not revert till we revert the atmospheric forcing mechanisms of climate change effects on the atmospheric/oceanic circulation. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
why? the climo baseline is about to jump even warmer -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
frontranger8 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
So there is a good chance the short term trend for March the past 6 years will revert to a certain extent sometime soon. -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
forkyfork replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
so? -
This is exactly why when it comes to winter, I'd rather it just be boring than WAW. I think this is what separates the real real heads from semi-posers. Any other time of the year, sure, break the monotony up. But rain at slightly above freezing is downright the most dogshit ass weather you can get imo. I'll gladly layer up and go strolling in arctic conditions, but what the fuck are you gonna do outside in 33 and rain? And frankly, light rain from a cloud deck one physically cannot discern is incredibly dull in my eyes, so all that's left for me personally is to get tilted over the fact that it's snowing instead of raining. I guess approaching/departing systems make for cool sunsets at least...
