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Looking more like a whiff at the moment. In the past, these snow bands have set up further north than modeled, but that's when there was a more negative tilt which would allow bands to often move further north than modeled. Can't do that hear due to the fast flow

Looking forward to a snowy weekend. We've had a great start to Winter... best I can remember in quite some time. Going to enjoy the deep snow pack this weekend before the warm up next week.

They salted the heck out the roads in Westminster. Probably for clouds

NAM definitely caving to the GFS .

Quick hitter on the NAM. Perfect timing, too. Coming at night with cold ground will give us instant stickage. And Ralph, if you had hair one on your jawn, you’d have started the Christmas blizzard thread already

AI was cold for a while around that time period and has since flipped....can't say I believe it anymore than any other model at this point.

1-3 inches is still a good call for NYC.

I know. That John Denver is really full of **** man.

'76-77 and 77-78 were just unreal for this Area. Theyveere great Northern like Winters. River's, Creeks and Ponds were frozen completely over and thick. You could walk on them ! Constant Cold. I'm thinking the MJO hung out in cold Phases. Blocking was strong in 76-77 but oddly the NAO was neutral to slightly positive. Strong -AO Both. Strong +PNA as well. Not surprising, '77-78 was my Snowiest Winter with 72" recorded just west of Pennington gap.

Yeah this has Bruce Willis flags with flow out of the NW from 850 and below.

Interesting that high res does have some snow in the air tomorrow. Not much but would be festive.

Trending drier on the meh guidance especially as you go NE / dry air then fights in from the NW Sunday morning with the front

Just pointing out the differences between over night runs to 6z runs is a matter of an inch. This was never anything more than a 1-3” light event. No need to go into panic mode if models show a little less at 6z cause we all know at 12z it will whiff the other way.

hi-res FV3/GFS sends the band even further south. Should probably wisen up and just assume we won't know til it happens like our best people have said instead of living and dying by each run. Goalposts still fairly wide

I thought the airmass was well saturated?

12z NAM pretty consistent

I actually choked on my tea. Well done!

I would love 12z hrrr to verify. But nam has me a little nervous on a south shift. Has heavier swath south.

Are you coming tomorrow?

Let’s place a friendly bet that the high temp at KMQS (not your improperly sited wx station) is at least 50 on 12/25. If I’m wrong, I won’t interact with your posts again. If I’m right, you’ll accept that AGW is real.

I would go 1" to 3" from NW Chesco up through the Lehigh Valley 2" to 4" from Central Chesco down through Philly I95 1" to 2" toward the Jersey shore

You know i'm not part of this conversation but I've always felt that 'conditions' aspect is over applied. We used to play in the "Waltham League" back in my late 20s and early 30s. Great era of life really. Despite all protestations of the times, looking back, I'd love to go back - maybe even do some things differently. Anyway, we met up around 9 or 10am on Sunday mornings before the Patriots game - mind you, this was when the dynasty was just getting going. Imagine that? 20 guys supposedly doing flag football; eventually just ended up being so aggressive that guys took hits once in a while; all the while, visions and fantasies of being somehow a part of said dynasty. Ha. It was a great time. Then afterwards, we haul our steaming bodies to the Mad Raven on Rt 20, for Guinness and IPAs ... wings and Patriot's victories. Oh where was I going ... so we were literally steaming. There were a couple of mornings where it couldn't have been more than 20F, over a few inches of trampled packed snow on the field, and by 3rd down of the opening drive both sides were down to t-shirts. Just going by experience, football is a hot f'n sport man. Now... okay, if it's -10 F like the Ice Bowl game or whatever, sure. But if's just a normal climo winter's day, and their playin' it's hard for me to imagine cold being much of a factor.

He is very nasty and is usually worse in the mornings.

Getting rid of the mountains seems extreme. They are pretty. And CAD is nice. Better idea is just to make them retractable. Lower them into the ground when a storm is coming. Lift them back up after we get our 3 feet of beautiful powder. LFG team. We can figure out how to do this. It's just basic physics (and perhaps a little geology).

It sure was, I ended up with a hair over 4.0" inches from that. Meso's and a few globals had hinted at it for a couple days, but I didn't put much stock into it at the time as its a rare occurrence this far east.