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There’s no need for a thread quite yet imo. It does look like conditions are becoming more favorable in the western Atlantic. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend toward the leading wave and central Atlantic area continues to move toward development.

ANYWAY I FOUND THESE FOR THE ORANGE

Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

Watch us have a week of clouds with only a few winners in the rainfall department. This set up seems rather hit or miss. Would really like one day that's a regionwide soaker.

FOR THIS AOI 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is producing limited showers and thunderstorms well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although environmental conditions are not favorable for initial development of this system over the next day or two, these conditions should gradually become more favorable for development by the middle to latter part of this week, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Dendy???

I KEEP MAKING THREAD FOR THE NEW AOI AND THEY KEEP BEING REMOVED

You should have taken Wes to dinner.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for North Texas (including DFW) until 10pm.

Yes I started last Sunday. Doing a combo of clover and grass seed in the brown areas. Clover is coming up already.

We need rain. Less than .50 for the month and it's been in the mid to upper 80s the last week

With the upcoming weather pattern, wondering if the conditions are favorable yet for overseeding. Have you started? Currently soil temperatures in the top 0 to 10 cm are averaging 70 degrees Fahrenheit I read optimal temperatures for fescue germination is between 50 and 65° f. Long range silly guidance on the AccuWeather app shows the end of October with the first freeze of the fall, I am not sure. I believe that although the weather has been known to make dramatic, turns near Halloween

Severe thunderstorm warning forMcHenry and Lake Counties. Been a long time since one was issued in the area.

BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV) which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70 kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However, the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has become a hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

The Eagles won one for Bernie today.

Enjoy

Sky looks like early August with all the towers

Through the first three weeks of September, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park have all recorded a monthly high temperature of 86°. The last time all three sites had the same monthly high temperature was August 2024 when the peak temperature was 95°. The last time all three sites had the same highest temperature in September was 2011 when the highest temperature was also 86°. There is a single case where all three sites recorded identical highest and lowest monthly temperatures: November 1957 with a monthly high of 66° and a monthly low of 28°. Back to the present, temperatures will top out mainly in the lower and middle 70s tomorrow. It will then turn noticeably warmer on Tuesday before another cool front crosses the region on Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will likely reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s in the warmer spots. The advancing front could trigger some showers or thundershowers. Additional rain is possible Thursday into Saturday as a series of low pressure systems move along the frontal boundary. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +0.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.667 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Euro tries to flood S NH. Does any soak in?

It's a warm pattern, so at least temps will be somewhat held in check. There will be some sun at times this week. We need the rain.

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance

Lack of precipitation is one variable. Temperature is another. At higher temperatures, more soil moisture is lost to evaporation. Here's a comparison of September 1984-August 1985 vs. September 2024-August 2025 for the Northeast Region: 1984-1985: Temperature: 49th warmest (2.0°F cooler than 2024-2025) Precipitation: 35.23" (6th driest) Palmer Z-Index: -0.90 (13th driest) 2024-2025: Temperature: 13th warmest (2.0°F warmer than 1984-1985) Precipitation: 37.97" (23rd driest) Palmer Z-Index: -1.12 (7th driest) Numerous locations in New England with 0 days of missing data have seen < 35.00" precipitation over the 12-month period. Three such locations have seen < 30.00" precipitation. Bridgeport (27.62"), Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains have all seen <35.00" of rain during the same period.

Thats what I think. Standard, council approved winter. No frills but it’ll do just fine.

3rd straight day it's rained here. I've had I've had over 2 inches of rainfall in 3 days. Had a high of 77 yesterday. A low of 53 this morning and a current temp of 67.