All Activity

I still think this has a subtropical chance but totally agree that there could be severe coastal impacts regardless of designation.

NWS just came on board with this. Earlier today, they had sun for Sunday...

Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

At least most models are still showing a nice half inch to inch soaking for tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Hopefully that will hold. That would be a much needed watering.

last winter makes me paranoid but careful optimism is always a decent strategy

Couldn't you have at least said wagons north to try get us some more rain?

micro spud at the office

Good, I don't want to have to cancel my Sturbridge village trip Sunday/Monday. wagons south.

Still some good hits though.. we need this!

@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….

it's a weak correlation at -0.07, so...

DAW 87 CON 86 MHT 86 Old record at CON was 84

Watch Wednesday’s current forecast totals become overly optimistic as a result of a “day of” rug pull.

Holy shit its raining. I didn't think this was a thing that happened in these parts.

EPS is way south though.

We've had a nice round of showers come through Germantown today in Memphis, picked up about 2/10 of an inch so far. It Looks like we could pick up some more throughout the evening/overnight. Were still dealing with drought conditions so every little bit helps. Temps have been in the low 70's all day

I think easily half plus for most.. models much more robust now

Wait until you're inside 65 hours anymore. We've seen so manyHR 60 - 100 rug pulls, especially in the winter, these past few years.

Im leaning .25 or less for much of SNE. .50 as a max

Still got your hopes up for a second, so it served its purpose. The weather Gods will allow our weekend activities to remain, as long as this shockingly boring and dry pattern continues (save for this trough / cold front thing tomorrow night / wed AM.)

October 27th, 1859 was a really nice early season 3.0” event in the recently released older data from Newark. It actually preceded a solid snowfall 46.9” season. Not like what happened after October 2011. Relative to the 1991-2020 climate normals, it would be a -8.7° departure October. People saw that and probably started stocking up on firewood early for the winter. There were 6 freezes by 10-30. Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - October 1859 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1643 1190 - - 429 0 2.55 3.0 Average 56.7 41.0 48.8 -8.7 - - - - Normal 66.0 49.0 57.5 - 253 21 3.79 0.2 1859-10-01 67 46 56.5 -6.8 8 0 0.29 0.0 1859-10-02 68 59 63.5 0.6 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-03 64 47 55.5 -7.0 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-04 71 48 59.5 -2.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-05 71 52 61.5 -0.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-06 58 50 54.0 -7.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-07 62 42 52.0 -8.9 13 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-08 69 51 60.0 -0.5 5 0 1.32 0.0 1859-10-09 52 46 49.0 -11.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-10 53 41 47.0 -12.7 18 0 0.49 0.0 1859-10-11 59 37 48.0 -11.3 17 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-12 60 45 52.5 -6.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-13 66 46 56.0 -2.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-14 72 55 63.5 5.4 1 0 T 0.0 1859-10-15 55 46 50.5 -7.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-16 52 37 44.5 -12.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-17 59 38 48.5 -8.5 16 0 T 0.0 1859-10-18 65 M M M M M 0.22 0.0 1859-10-19 M 42 M M M M 0.03 0.0 1859-10-20 45 37 41.0 -14.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-21 41 32 36.5 -19.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-22 44 30 37.0 -18.2 28 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-23 51 38 44.5 -10.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-24 52 33 42.5 -12.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-25 59 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1859-10-26 M 32 M M M M T T 1859-10-27 42 29 35.5 -17.9 29 0 0.20 3.0 1859-10-28 48 30 39.0 -14.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-29 48 33 40.5 -12.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-30 43 32 37.5 -14.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 1859-10-31 47 36 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 1859-1860 46.9

It seems I say it most years but this warm fall should make for a rockin lake-effect season. Most of the lake-effect belts north and east of me cashed in last year. We just couldn't get the good dynamics on the southern end of Lake Michigan last winter. Too many glancing blows. Hoping for better arctic blasts this winter.

October 2016 and 2019 were warm and we all know how those winters ended.

Wow, I thought the rug pull would wait until Wednesday.