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I may be a simple man, but I see this (Euro Ensemble) for a daytime event in the 1st week of December. I'm not complaining.
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For the twelve 6”+ RDU storms since MJO records started, here are the MJO phases with the largest # of these storms:-3: 3.5 28.2” -8: 2.5 16.8” -5: 2 13.2” -1: 1.5 23.7”-7: 1 10.8”-4: 1 5.9”-2: 0.5 9.0”-6: 0 0.0”MJO amplitude:Weak: 63.9” (on or inside circle)Mod 37.8” (1-2 amp)Strong 5.9” (2+ amp)-The MJO is progged to be weak phase 8 Dec 8-9th-All of the 6”+ RDU snows during phases 8, 1, and 2 were when the MJO was inside the circle.-Phase 3 leading may seem counterintuitive but it’s not when considering that 3 of the 3.5 phase 3 storms were during Feb or Mar, when phase 3 is one of the coldest phases.
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I mean it’s the only piece of guidance getting anything appreciable north of SoMD. I think we are cooked.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
WmsptWx replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It is time for Neeli Bendapudi to call a meeting of the Board of Trustees... -
Must've been some decent band in the upper CT Valley too... radar dead zone but pretty impressive totals right in the upper valley for spots that usually aren't that snowy relative to the rest. 7-10" zone right along the VT/NH border.
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Please god, no...I can't even fathom what Ben is suggesting: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47189142/ben-roethlisberger-james-harrison-call-mike-tomlin-steelers-split -
yearly reminder We are too north for southern sliders We are too south for Miller Bs and all those 40N events we miss out on We are too far west for La Nina Noreasters that clobber Va Beach/Ocean City We are too far east for clippers
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0.2" of fluff in town with up to 2" around NE MN. Turning bitter tonight. -sd's to -10's. Even along the shoreline will dip below 0.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
HoarfrostHubb replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
It's been hinted at... but good luck with it. One of Ray's fraud 5 I think -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Ralph Wiggum replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Welcome to Nina December. -
The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
WmsptWx replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Brian Hartline to South Florida. -
Fwiw, 12z Rgem went a bit south of 6z. Not worth posting.
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Reggie also
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
Damage In Tolland replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
Lol -
Yes let’s do this…once again it’s time.
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I’m dying.
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Kind of looks like the NAM.and ICON are trying to Norlun us sat afternoon?
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
HoarfrostHubb replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
That was brutal -
still? Isnt that like 1987?
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the 24 hour precip thing on the eps increased pretty good last night for that window
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Seriously, smh. The Euro solution would be quite unlike what we've seen from sliders the last several years. They haven't tracked across central MD in I don't know how long. Color me skeptical until it gets more support.
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Getting missed to the south on December 5th wouid be icing on the cake of the past few winters.
