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A bit west would have more ridging into AK which would help us with cold air

You're right, we shouldn't discuss this in here, it's the wrong place

Euro seasonal has it a bit west allowing a decent trough to develop in the SE. The link below is for NDJ. It holds through the rest of the winter too if you scroll forward. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=NHEM&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202611010000

By the way love the page! good luck I am stunned how many folks follow my FB site!

Sorry to offend you psu! Take care!!

Save us the sanctimonious passive aggressive narrative. You have a giant quote that shows up under every single one of your posts like a billboard.

For those on Team Snow while rare we have had significant snowstorms as early as October. Below are our top such snowstorms. The biggest one occurred just 15 years ago back in 2011. On the website https://chescowx.com/top-snowfalls-by-month/ you do this for all months and even drill down into each storm to see the individual amounts across the area.

First big AI fail it seems with Champi hitting Taiwan.

Below is factual real climate data for Chester County PA that shows no statistical warming at all....for more of these and to not clog up this forum - have at it over on the Climate Change section of this great forum - thanks!

For those on Team Snow while rare we have had significant snowstorms as early as October. Below are our top such snowstorms. The biggest one occurred just 15 years ago back in 2011. On the website https://chescowx.com/top-snowfalls-by-month/ you do this for all months and even drill down into each storm to see the individual amounts across the area.

zzzz

I address all of this and more over under climate change where this belongs...to not clog up the good folks here with non observation stuff! Thanks!!

shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better.

Figured it would go though the Luzon maybe towards Hong Kong around there,seems to be going to get sheared out the next upcoming days,dunno

They’re just delaying the inevitable. It’ll happen, whether it’s the last week of October or sometime in November.

https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/E/W/OBS_Radar.html Wild radar loop showing land interaction heavily influencing track (normal for cyclones near Taiwan)

Huge fail for AI models. Champi just made landfall on Taiwan

Thanks, Chris. Good find! I went further and looked at all ATL Octs for +1.3+ Ninos back to the late 1800s (24 of them) and found only three that were 1.8+ warmer than normal, which is ~where the full Oct 2026 is projected. But they were all only higher end moderate: 1918 (+1.4 Nino): 65.8 (3.1 AN) 1941 (+1.3 Nino): 69.4 (5.9 AN) 2002 (+1.3 Nino): 65.4 (1.8 AN) The full Oct 2026 is projected to come out to ~66.1F or ~1.8 AN, which would tie with 1899 for the warmest vs normal for any Nino stronger than +1.4 AN (I count 17 of them back to late 1800s). The warmest ATL Oct anomalies for El Niños stronger than +1.4 peak are: 1899 (1.8 AN) 1991 (1.6 AN) 2023 (1.4 AN) 1986 (1.2 AN) 1994 (1.1 AN)

you're avoiding my question

I saw earlier this morning where as we go into November, the chances of AN precip and temps increase after the first week of November, as el Niño ramps up, so this next stretch of dry may be it for a while.

Seeing some decent color now. Can tell winter is coming with all the light coming in on the south side now.