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As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.5 +2.7 +2.2 +5.3 +2.0 +0.9 +2.7 +0.2 +3.0

Still growing up here in the highlands. Growing Season lives on....may pick some veggies off plants, in late Nov, for Turkey Dinner. (Kidding..sort of)

Aren't they being considered as a future Winter Olympics host?

_ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.2 +2.0 +2.1 +2.0 +1.4 +1.4 +2.0 +1.2 +1.1

It's already dry here, as I caught only 1.22" in October, with half of that amount coming on October 1st. We could once again be completely parched come spring.

Cold start, mild middle, cold end Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Really curious how the ENSO would have been back in the Pangea years... Hotter planet with no ice caps Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Nothing wrong with that…I’ll take some warmth and some cool, and some rain…sign me up.

38.6 this morning. Colder spot in the area.

It does look a bit more active starting end of next week at least. And alternating periods of warmer and cooler but likely AN as a whole through mid Novie.

Is there some sort of new skill style on grass?

Ski Ward in Shrewsbury became the first ski area in North America to open for skiing last weekend. might be their best conditions of the season

Red sky this morning.

The 75° at JFK was the 3rd warmest for October 30th. Data for October 30 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1961-10-30 79 54 0.10 0.0 0 1950-10-30 77 55 M M M 2026-10-30 75 52 0.00 M M 2024-10-30 73 56 0.00 0.0 0 2016-10-30 73 56 0.15 0.0 0 1971-10-30 72 52 0.00 0.0 0 1994-10-30 70 51 0.00 0.0 0

https://www.weather.gov/lot/halloween_climate

Same here.

No freeze yet or in sight here in the lowlands. Grass is green, flowers are thriving. I wonder if I see a freeze before I leave the tropics on Dec 1.

35 degrees this morning.

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño. So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024. There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years. We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. So we may continue to see the models play catch up on the warmth the closer in time we get to the forecast period.