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Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.

even a broken clock is correct 2 times a day..

It's the NAM, but

Nam kinda looks nice at the end of the run. Heh

NAM is def better at H5 vs 18z, Im at 81...some snow, just above freezing at this frame tho. 84: Precip heavier, still slightly above freezing, still all around kinda sloppy tho

I'll be up in Western Maine Weds-Sat, Lock it in.

Long range GFS is the things that weenies dreams are made of. But it keeps showing a very active period with a few distinct events for several cycles now. 16th, 19th, 22nd, and 25th, with no breaks in the cold in between. Been quite consistent so you’d think it’s onto something. However; it also had NYC at 8” of snow for the last storm that gave us 4” so maybe not

Surprised to see we picked up 1.5” of snow this evening. Not sure if they’ll be any more

It is. Sort of like the GFS did vs it's 12z run. Stop being positive, it's unsettling.

0z NAM is pushing the energy further west at 57hr vs 18z NAM at 63hr fwiw

Quick 0.1" from that burst of snow that moved through. Maybe someday I'll get something that actually is up the ruler a ways

MJO starts moving into favorable positions by then too.

It's all about the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern. There are strong patterns in certain places in the hemisphere when DC/Baltimore gets >7" snowstorms. When the pattern is cold, with room to spare, long range threats/patterns are worth following. We have -AO tendency this Winter, December was colder than average in the Northeast and we are probably colder than average in the 2nd half of January. I've been pretty bullish on the Winter pattern general, although the STJ is really dry. The last few days of January has potential, imo. And maybe early February. ENSO subsurface Kelvin wave is occurring, and that historically correlates with more +PNA in the north pacific. Give us -AO running south into a ridge over Greenland, with a 50/50 low under it, and the pattern looks suddenly favorable. Unfortunately it's 15 days out, but it does have support with things actually occurring, like in ENSO, and Winter -AO tendency from -SLP 60-90N this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).

You remember that?. Are you Mitch’s father?.

I guess if theirs anything that looks more certain to talk about is there's no sign of any warm ups after the next couple days... Very Cold weather coming it seems.

Climo in the metros will very likely be in the single digits.

we need more \ and less / Earlier, there were comments about ULL capture of a surface low. FWIW, I recall that happening with the Janury 20, 1978 nor'easter.

Not as much as it would otherwise if the ridge doesn't cooperate. Still nuisance amounts.

This guy is smart. Good thing he’s all in on Jan 23-25.

It'll be set in stone in about 14 hours.

You make very good points and I do take back my stance on that. At the end of the day, if I’m overwhelmed by the emotion, I have the option to not partake, or just mute certain accounts. I appreciate the discussion!

Who hacked your account Chuck?.

So it’s set in stone, it can’t change?.

A closed ULL that deep will develop a LP in its NE quadrant. Inflow off the ocean wlll provide seeder feeder. Closed in this situation absolutely matters