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Another chilly morning here, low of 52, and some gusts to around 25mph this morning. both the coldest temps and highest (non-tstorm) winds i've felt in a few months

I'm beating a dead horse here, but that is a horrible look. It would be nice to have at least one powerful long-tracker to, well, track. No use in complaining. It is what it is...

The very warm NW Pacific continues to drive a solid -PDO. It would be nice if that would diminish in intensity and allow a PDO increase. Strong El Niño forcing tends to favor a +PDO looking well back in history. Actually from 1877-8 through 1957-8, all 11 strong ones had a +PDO DJF. However, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were neutral. Then the 4 strong ones 1982-3 through 1997-8 went back to +PDO followed by a neutral 2009-10. 2015-6 went back to +PDO followed by 2023-4 being the first on record with a -PDO and a strong one at that! Being that August of 2026 will end up most likely 2nd strongest pre strong Nino Aug -PDO with even a slight chance at the strongest -PDO pre-strong Nino Aug, the chances of a +PDO this winter are low. Hopefully it would rise to neutral PDO and we don’t get the 2nd strong Nino winter -PDO in a row.Full tally for 20 strong El Niño events since 1877-8:-16 (80%) +PDO - 3 (15%) neutral PDO- 1 (5%) -PDOPDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

I used to think so too I'm just a little north of you in the Poconos in actuality we need both el ninos and la ninas we just don't want either to get too strong. Our best summers and winters come in the transition years from el nino to la nina think 1995-96 and 2010-11. So the transition period between el nino and la nina might be the most exciting time both for summer and winter weather.

I love reading your posts they are always very informative John! Are you aware of Sir Roger Penrose's Conformal Cyclical Cosmology? He uses geometry to explain how the expansion of the universe could be one in many cycles of expansion and contraction and how what seems like increasing entropy will one day maybe a trillion years from now lead to a return to a very low entropy state like at the so called Big Bang which was really a Big Bounce. It doesn't violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics as long as the universe is at least slightly larger with each reiteration of the cycle. Think of a ball rolling up and down successive hills with potential energy being converted to kinetic energy as it rolls downhill and being converted back to potential energy as it rolls up the next hill. This is how a cyclic universe would be possible with the ball rolling downhill representing expansion and the ball rolling uphill representing contraction. Reason being that going uphill goes against gravity and going downhill happens because of gravity. Each cell living, breathing and dying really is like its own universe but also cyclic in a way because nothing is ever truly destroyed (the Law of Conservation of Mass-Energy) it just changes form and becomes part of the next whole. The idea of the primary colors representing the universe are intriguing. You could have space represented by the additive primaries of RGB red green blue and the arrow of time represented by black in our universe and an anniversary with its anti-space represented by the subtractive primaries of CMY cyan magenta yellow and an equal but opposite arrow of time represented by white, so as our universe expands its anniversary contracts and vice versa.

Here we go again

I'm the opposite; I love ninos live in central MD and our best snow chances are in niños--and a lingering nina state is bad news for us as we get screwed out of the goods most of the time, lol Which is why those in our region are hoping we can get something out this one (before la nina reigns supreme again for two years!)

Waters off the east coast certainly lost the chill of early to mid summer in a hurry.

NP. To each their own

Some 50's across central NC this morning. Combined with the low humidity it feels great outside

August 24 2006: Tornadoes and large hail strike southern Minnesota. One person died and 37 were injured when a strong tornado began 4 miles west-southwest of Nicollet in Nicollet County, and moved almost due east for 33 miles to near Waterville in Le Sueur County. Many storm chasers captured the tornado on video. The largest hail reported was grapefruit-sized at New Prague in Scott County. 1934: Early cool air invades southern Minnesota. Rochester and Fairmont have lows of 34 degrees. For Monday, August 24, 2026 1906 - A cloudburst deluged Guinea, VA, with more than nine inches of rain in just forty minutes. (David Ludlum) 1968 - Lightning struck the Crawford County fairgrounds in northwest Pennsylvania killing two persons and injuring 72 others. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Autumn-like weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN with a low of 37 degrees. Temperatures in Florida soared to 98 degrees at Pensacola and 99 degrees at Jacksonville. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Southern High Plains Region, with 5.40 inches at Union NM, and 7.25 inches reported west of Anthony NM. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms in the Delaware Valley of eastern Pennsylvania produced wind gusts to 95 mph around Philadelphia, and gusts to 100 mph at Warminster. A tropical depression drenched the Cabo Rojo area of southwestern Puerto Rico with up to ten inches of rain. San Juan received 5.35 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in eastern Montana and western sections of the Dakotas. Thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Jordan, and golf ball size hail at Rock Springs, which collected three to four feet deep in ditches. Lewiston ID reported a record 1.50 inches of rain for the date, and a record rainfall total for August of 2.63 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - Hurricane Andrew made landfall in southern Florida at 4:30 AM on this day. The high winds caused catastrophic damage in Florida, with Miami-Dade County cities of Florida City, Homestead, and Cutler Ridge receiving the brunt of the storm. About 63,000 homes were destroyed, and over 101,000 others were damaged. This storm left roughly 175,000 people homeless. As many as 1.4 million people were left without electricity at the height of the storm. In the Everglades, 70,000 acres (280 km2) of trees were knocked down. Additionally, rainfall in Florida was substantial, peaking at 13.98 in (355 mm) in western Miami-Dade County. About $25 billion in damage and 44 fatalities were reported in Florida. Observances: 24 Mon National Waffle Day 24 Mon Kobe Bryant Day 24 Mon International Strange Music Day 24 Mon Pluto Demoted Day 24 Mon National Emory Day 24 Mon National Peach Pie Day 24 Mon National SKAM Artist Day 24 Mon St Bartholomew History 24 Mon National Knife Day

Nice way to end meteorological summer! To me at least out in my area of NWNJ the summer did not seem all that hot. There were hot days for sure but it was not endless day after day to 90+ out this way. Humidity was another story so glad to get break from that.

Yuck lol can't grow any of that here the rabbits and deer would eat everything. On the plus side though the big rabbits that I have here eat all the weeds and are quite tame and look at me quite calmly while I snap pictures of them near one of my ponds. August is a lost month around here and no longer part of summer I'd say. It's not quite fall either though I'd say our summers have become limited to June and July while August and September can be considered part of a new fifth season we could call the monsoon season like what they have in India and the SW. There's a nearly total lunar eclipse that peaks at 93% at 12:12 am on Friday but as usual it will be too cloudy to see anything. Two clear days out of seven is not my idea of summer. Normal summer weather in our area should at a bare minimum include 6 clear days out of 7 and I'd strive for 9 clear days out of 10 with one inch of rain every 10 days.

My monthly total now stands at 13.28", which would already be good for my third wettest month ever, behind only August of 2018 and September of 2011.

Another chilly morning. Mid 30's-40's inland with 50's along the shore.

I dislike el ninos too our most interesting weather happens during la Nina's so if there was a way to modify the climate the first thing I would look at are a network of underwater devices that would prevent super el ninos from happening. I also agree with you that la nina is the natural state and a big one is coming in the next 1 to 2 years and very likely a very hot and dry summer like 1966, 1983, 1999 and 2010 had. I look forward to it.

these don't do it for me, personally

Euro and cm can have been showing the ridge/warmth potential for Aug 31 - labor day on several runs.

61F for the low. A bit disappointing. We hit that around 3 AM and started climbing. I guess, a bit of clouds and wind F'd us.

Based on model consensus suggesting higher than normal pressures at Tahiti likely dominating the 7 days or so, I don’t think the consistently strong -SOI dailies will return at least until early Sept. We could even have some +SOI dailies til then.

I was in the spa on Friday night, and my sister asked me why the spa doesn't stay consistently hot. It was at that moment that my understanding of the el nino/la nina cycle truly clicked. My answer was that it requires an extra amount of energy to maintain that heat. The same way that it requires extra heat to maintain an el nino. It was at that point that I realized why an el nino doesn't last, and ENSO neutrals/la ninas are more natural, lasting states. Then, she said that at hotels (where spas are maintained at continuous heat), there is a warning that you should not stay more than 15 minutes. It was at that point that I realized that if the earth was in a continuous el nino state, it would not really be habitable. (Like you'd have to leave the continuous warm spa after 15 minutes, you'd have to leave continuous earth to cool off after a certain period of time.)

Curious, what does Skynet think about the NAO during this time range above?

for sure, TARP system still chewing through all the wastewater from the previous wet period and we're probably good on rain heading into the drier fall season the weather this time of year has been consistently wonderful, we're blessed