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Wasn’t 6z a whiff/scrape?

Beat me to hauling out this phrase, lol. The northern snow drought is not just Baltimore N/W as we often discuss (better climo=more disappointment probs) but it has also been bleak Balt NE for 95 corridor northern peeps. I prefer big snows that hit the biggest area possible but if this modest tiny miracle happens here, we are due.

Take the under on the Popes torch mas

Through 36 looks like NAM might bump north a tad with better trough orientation, but I don't expect much difference from 6z

The 0z GFS was similar in principle. From this range ...neither has much substantive value. Have to wait it out on details and dailies. However, there is a new character that's shown up to the plot. The EPS made a move overnight that may offer nostalgia's salvation for the the Holiday week. It's very new, so we'll have to see if this continues. It's the North Atlantic Oscillation. The thing is, the actual index numbers from the GEPs and GEFs do show a slight correction down .. hmm. The EPS was a bit more representative, though. It's very all or nothing in that last 10 days of the month. If we end up on the N side of the ambient polar boundary, than record warm still - likely - happens in the conus, it just won't make it in here...where we will be at risk for something like a 00z GEFs and/or Skynet type of stalled boundary with mixy shit running along. So big contrasts along the boundary... A west-limb -NAO expression would limit warmth expansion over the eastern continent no farther than 40N. Again, it's a fledgling signal... But, it seems we have that -NAO about 6 weeks ago... Then, it decayed ... we relayed into the -EPO mode. The NAO's been in hiatus since. The EPO now failing to refit ( while the -WPO continues to fester ..different story - ), and with the PNA going negative, the longer term correlation on -PNA is actually a -NAO. So there's climate-wise support for NAO to reassert. These index correlations are not 1::1 of course ..we are still in speculation mode. Something to keep an eye on if your the winter/Holiday symbolism types. It's at least based on a real observation from the tools themselves. Yesterday at this time, this observation could not be made; I posted direly, accordingly... but, sometimes, that's all that is needed LOL

Ground is still warm too, clear off the snow and get some good cold days then lets start stacking again.

Morning low of 6. Getting some light snow/freezing mist now, roads got greased quick.

I am playing Maye because well he the only QB I have, or need, but if I could play Lamar over him I think I would. Bengals defense sucks so this should be a shootout. If Anything, he needs a big bounceback game.

Some of the cheapest tickets I have seen available for this Sunday. Tons of lower bowl seats for well under $200.

Agree (minus Mac Jones getting 3 pass attempts in Buffalo). Brady used to light teams up. I’m just not sure how much experience Drake has throwing in those conditions and how pass happy Vrabel would want to be…but I’m sure Josh would love to go pass heavy with Stef and Pop running a bunch of quick cut routes from the slot.

The guy finally makes a positive half way decent post, and you chop em down at the knees.

Overnight trends were discouraging, hopefully the 12Z runs are a bit better but for now the only model that improved is the 6Z Euro.

Looks better to me at 30 with trajectory of energy diving down and angle of trough

Let’s butt fumble.

Sure do. That's funny; I came within a hair of sending you this same photo yesterday. A classic!

wheels would have to really come off for a sub 30 season at ord given the hot start but anyone expecting the upcoming warmup to go poof will be beavis posting by january

Did Christmas move up a week? Mary have to have an emergency C-section?

If you cant make a point without insulting someone or their job, its time to rethink your argument. Im too goddamn busy to go delete the nonsense and because there are actual good arguments intertwined. But this shit ends, there is no gatekeeping the threads.

He must have not gotten the altar boy he was eyeing…

Drop kicked

Snow games, as long as the wind is manageable, are actually favorable for passing games. But, I think Lamar goes off this week.

It’s beginning to look at lot like torchmas…everywhere you gooooo

I was talking about the fact that repeating patterns have become more pronounced as the climate has warmed. While there was a weaker December to seasonal snowfall relationship prior to the 1990s, it has become more pronounced. My theory as to why this is that case is that we are seeing the beginnings of non-linear climate shifts. As convective thresholds begin to be crossed in tropical forcing regions with rapidly warming SSTs, it can be like flipping a switch where patterns start locking in more and become more persistent. Now the paper below is very technical, but in a tangential way to our discussion it’s the beginning of some new and potentially promising research. Circus Tents, Convective Thresholds, and the Non-Linear Climate Response to Tropical SSTs https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101499

I never said that I know some have...haven't looked too much yet.