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Dews in the upper 40s and 50s by Friday!

From the analysis by Claude - Coatesville 1SW trends, °C/decade, 1894–1982 Series Trend ±1 se p r² °F/century Raw −0.124 0.030 9.7×10⁻⁵ 0.174 −2.23 Adjusted +0.050 0.028 0.075 0.039 +0.90 Regional +0.053 0.026 0.047 0.048 +0.95 Adjusted − raw +0.174 0.014 5.3×10⁻²¹ 0.671 +3.13 Raw Coatesville cools significantly across its full 89-year record. The NCEI adjustements indicate that 67% of the variance in the adjustment is a straight line in time. That is a remarkably clean linear trend for something that is SUPPOSED TO BE A SET OF UNRELATED BIAS CORRECTIONS. The adjusted series supplies 348% of its own trend from the adjustment. Every single breakpoint is code 4 Fourteen breakpoints: 1896-12, 1902-02, 1917-08, 1920-09, 1922-08, 1930-10, 1936-05, 1941-06, 1946-04, 1959-11, 1968-05, 1971-04, 1973-07, 1976-02. Not one is code 1 (documented move), 2 (gap), or 3 (time-of-observation change) — all fourteen are empirically inferred from neighbor comparison. Given that your HOMR work documents six actual site relocations at this station between 1888 and 1982, Berkeley detected none of them as documented events. Worth cross-checking your Coatesville 1SW History sheet against those fourteen dates: any that coincide with a real move is a defensible correction; any that don't is a correction inferred purely from the neighbors disagreeing. Of note only Coatesville 2W had a documented flagged station move across the entire Coatesville lineage - in April 2001. That's the first and only documented move Berkeley has flagged anywhere in the Coatesville lineage, against six relocations in your HOMR research and fourteen all-code-4 breaks at 1SW.

89/74 currently at my station so dews still very uncomfortable

GFS accuracy has never been the best.

Svr warnings all over here. I knew I felt it lol Edit: Feeling a tail end Charlie coming through here let’s see.

Tolerable outside in shade with nice breeze but still humid feeling. 84 currently.

Would love to see Feb-April to judge the full winter... Had a hunch it would be extremely back loaded this year

That’s refreshing being that the record breaking super El Niño is raging…..

Grass should start burning end of the week.

Thanks Mike!! It looks like there is t-max and t-min starting pretty consistently for West Chester starting late in 1873. I will try to add this to my data set and run some reports! This is great!! If you can find any other stations from before 1894 let me know!

I had a request to update the "heatwave" stats to something potentially more meaningful. Which is 3 or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th and 95th percentile for all Chester County Stations. The below rank summary makes the absolute-vs-relative divergence concrete. Sorted by absolute rank, the biggest movers are the 2010s (11th → 4th) and 2020s (13th → 6th), both rising 7 places once heat is judged against each station's own norm — meaning recent decades have been locally extreme even though they weren't absolutely record-hot. Going the other way, the 1960s (−4) and 1990s (−5) fall under the relative lens, and the 1940s slip from 1st to 3rd. The 1930s hold firm near the top under both definitions, and the 1950s actually take the #1 spot under P90

I had a request to update the "heatwave" stats to something potentially more meaningful. Which is 3 or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th and 95th percentile for all Chester County Stations. The below rank summary makes the absolute-vs-relative divergence concrete. Sorted by absolute rank, the biggest movers are the 2010s (11th → 4th) and 2020s (13th → 6th), both rising 7 places once heat is judged against each station's own norm — meaning recent decades have been locally extreme even though they weren't absolutely record-hot. Going the other way, the 1960s (−4) and 1990s (−5) fall under the relative lens, and the 1940s slip from 1st to 3rd. The 1930s hold firm near the top under both definitions, and the 1950s actually take the #1 spot under P90

I had a request to update the "heatwave" stats to something potentially more meaningful. Which is 3 or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th and 95th percentile for all Chester County Stations. The below rank summary makes the absolute-vs-relative divergence concrete. Sorted by absolute rank, the biggest movers are the 2010s (11th → 4th) and 2020s (13th → 6th), both rising 7 places once heat is judged against each station's own norm — meaning recent decades have been locally extreme even though they weren't absolutely record-hot. Going the other way, the 1960s (−4) and 1990s (−5) fall under the relative lens, and the 1940s slip from 1st to 3rd. The 1930s hold firm near the top under both definitions, and the 1950s actually take the #1 spot under P90

Great pool weather.

Had a window seat at Red Rose on Main Street when it went though and posted about the hail. just about everone in the restaurant was looking out the windows when it was whipping, it was quite exciting for a minute or two, there was quite a bit of foliage flying around from the wind and hail. Had a few route detours due to downed trees and emergency vehicle calls we had to navigate on way back from dinner.

Oh good, a return to base state At least we put a good dent in the drought. I suppose we take a breather before the STJ on steroids gets going.

Heat advisory up for today. More humid an expected it seems.

Those don’t happen anymore.

Last measurable rain here was 8/1, .20" Last night's line evaporated just to the west. Made for some nice breezes though.

The NWPAC is sure going strong so far this season (S-T-D 204% of avg ACE), but so far the E/CPAC is just about avg S-T-D. Typically, this basin is near record active in a very strong El Nino year. 1982 30 depressions and 23 of those NS. HI had one its few hurricane direct hits from Iwa this season. 1997 24 depressions and 19 of those became NS (Linda this season was the most intense EPAC TC until Patricia in 2015). 2015 31 depressions (a record), 26 of them NS, (tied its record), 16 hurricanes, and set a new record w/ 11 major hurricanes. However, 1991 was close to avg, so it shows not every very strong El Nino results in the same sensible wx in a region every time. And 1991 for the Atlantic only had 35 ACE, which is the 6th lowest ACE for this basin since the satellite era began. A general rule of thumb I use is that when he Atlantic is active, the EPAC is typically inactive, and vice-versa, but it does not work every time! Also, it is hard for every TC basin in the world to be suppressed in active in a given year. At least one is above avg when all other can be below. However, 1977 was a year when it was suppressed globally in all TC basins.

Greenfield has had 7”+ the past 10 days. Weird precip distro this year.

Almost seems like an aspect of a more monsoonal type climate when the highest annual temperatures occur earlier before the heavier rains arrive.

It’s easier to cheer for other people’s good fortune after you’ve had at least a taste