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That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

With the 500 cut off where it is on the ICON at 120 hr and the sfc low about 100 mi E of ORF, that should be enough for a movement close enough to SNE for sig snow. The strong vort SW of the cut off is somewhat of a wildcard. It seems to be rotating around the cut off faster than the upper low itself, so does it continue and go negative as it crosses the coast and you get one large cut off low just S of LI? The ridge over the Rockies is staying put and not de-amplifying, so that's good. Downstream the flow is still rather flat, but there are modest 500 height rises S of NS and NFL 108 to 120 hr.

I had like 3 inches from that storm all on the wrap around stall the next day after the brunt of it. Still leaves a bad taste in my mouth lol

Wrong… That was issued Feb 13‼️

No sun here but 40 for a high and some noticeable melting.

Thats what I took from it. I think that may have gotten pretty wrapped up on future hours

Euro had a pretty expansive precip shield for not being able to ‘find the storm.’

That’s what we are talking about . Tomorrow night

what's funny is that the OP euro has been brutal this winter too...not GFS bad but still pretty bad. The AI euro is crushing the OP euro in verification scores last I saw...it's going to be a clear upgrade once it's fully integrated.

GSP has put snow in the forecast for Sunday and Sunday night. A low of 18 is going to be a shock after a week of warm temperatures.

This type of setup is pretty sensitive to a last second amplification.

The ICON 500mb now looks like the Euro at 12z. Quite the change from 12z.

Not sure how warm it actually got today as I was out running errands in a tee shirt all day but right now it is 46 degrees

Not only this threat, every threat is a shell game with features leading right up to the event/non-event.

Wake up and go to sleep.

Yes, they are closed today. Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails. Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind. It is absolutely insane right now. We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow. Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'. I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra.

Starts off a bit sloppy, but extrapolated from here it honestly looks pretty good. For NE, you'd want the vort to close off and capture a hair later as otherwise it could occlude south of you (think Boxing Day).

OMG someone posting the ICON EPS!

51 for the high here

That thing was just about to go nuts I think..

What I love about February is toggling between SPC and Kuchera maps on a daily basis. ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... Two shortwave troughs are expected to quickly lift north-northeastward through the central Plains and into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday. The initial perturbation will reach Illinois/Indiana by early afternoon. The intensity of this feature will remain modest with perhaps some gradual weakening in time. The second trough will evolve in the lower Missouri Valley during the evening and intensify as it approaches the lower Ohio Valley by Friday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen as it lifts northeastward from eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes region. At least partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northward ahead of the surface cold front from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains. ...Lower/middle Ohio Valley... Ahead of the cold front, a prefrontal trough/pseudo dryline is expected to be the focus for convective development during the afternoon. The degree/quality of moisture return ahead of this feature will be key in terms of the overall magnitude of the severe threat. Current observations (Tuesday) from soundings depict a very modest moist layer along the Gulf coast. A modest shortwave trough on Tuesday night into Wednesday will lift northward too quickly for more substantial moisture return. The surface pattern on Thursday will be more robust, but deeper moisture may still not reach far enough north given that mid 60s F dewpoints are only as far north as the central Gulf currently. Guidance suggests mid to upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, which does seem reasonable. That said, temperatures aloft will not be overly cold and lapse rates will not be overly steep. This will lead to convection that may remain somewhat low topped in nature. Despite limiting factors within the environment, 40-50 kts of effective shear roughly perpendicular to the boundary will favor discrete storms. Low-level flow will be increasing with time as well. Supercells capable of few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail are possible during the afternoon/evening.

I am ytd with 38 another 20 to normal

Very late bloomer. Not much precip at all to the west. Basically gets going over top of us. I have nightmares from that scenario lol