All Activity

Welcome to the hobby! You should’ve been here for the legendary PSU runs of 2024 and 2023 and those perfect track storms. Just diabolical low in the perfect position and 35 degrees plus heavy rain. Something I’ve found to help is I go on hikes into the mountains during those perfect track storms cause they’re still cold enough (for now lmao) to get accumulation. Though it’s sad because I’m only another 1000 ft up or so (which moist adiabatic lapse rate is 4ish degrees) and that would be our base climo a hundred years ago

Back down to 5; winds are howling again tonight.

Lolll, I don’t even know what the FUCK you’re talking about. But i know you’re a vile piece of shit just for using that term. I guess your true colors are coming out. I hope you’re happy now that your pathetic ass wrote that. I hope you have a horrible night and a terrible week. Oh and you have definitely lived up to Delaware’s reputation.

Yeah dude I’m not here to say it won’t get cold or snows gonna disappear forever. Climate change takes time. Im here to say on balance we lose stuff on the margins. Additionally, that gfs run won’t be true (and god knows it won’t be right till the day after the event) but they still show a “real” possibility bound by our physical laws. That storm happens in some possible world; though hopefully not our own.

@SnowenOutThere the 0z GFS looks like an April storm

I agree that the setup is flawed. So does PSU. That’s not really our point though. The point is that we need to still snow on flawed setups like this one, if not, then we’re stuck waiting for years to get a good winter. As a note to that yes it’s 12 degrees now but our super cold pattern has been super dry! That’s normal, and that’s okay but shows why we need to be cold enough in our non super cold patterns.

Because we had a god damn perfect epo/pna pattern. Of course it can still get cold if everything is fucking perfect. We’re talking about losing snow along the margins. losing those snows we used to sneak in when the pattern wasn’t good.

Sorry lol

00z keying in on 2/15-2/16 track key QPF robust ICON: GFS: GFS AI AIGFS GGEM

That's just one run of a pretty poor model-at this range I mean. 32° in Cuba last week for the first time ever, and first 8 days of Feb rank top 10 at least all time in this region, for avg cold daily temps.

I hate to interrupt PSU and Chucks ongoing dissertation but the Ukie snows on us at the end of its run. Looks like it would be a snow to rain situation but looked like a thump was happening at hour 168

Learning about this stuff in my atmosphere and weather course this fall really shows how just objective it all is. I remember I had to learn and derive the whole solar forcing equation and calculate the temperate of earth based on the suns output. In the observed temp equation there are three variables. 1. Solar forcing 2. Albedo 3. Greenhouse gas absorption. That’s it. You can do the math and it all checks out. Then everything else falls from there. Storms ride baroclinic boundaries and the polar jet. Both of those shift north in response to our temperature. To emphasize it will snow again we will get a HECS again but gradually our chances slowly run dry until we’re all fighting for scraps over a 50 mile frozen shield on any storm that doesn’t have a great pattern.

Oh I agree but I stopped making this point because some agree and they get tired of hearing it because it’s depressing and the others won’t believe it and will cite examples of when it’s cold as evidence it’s not warming and it’a a waste of time arguing with them

That’s pathetic for Feb 15.

14-15 was warm, real warm in December. This year December was frigid. Most likely the difference.

The 1027mb High pressure moving off the east coast has nothing to do with it? This one doesn't need to be blamed on global warming. It's 12F right now lol and has been that way all Winter.

Not sure why @ravensruledecided to go full on Nazi trump supporter tonight, but I guess here we are? Yeah, I said it, everyone else just dancing around it. Hope I don't get banned, but it needed saying. Feel free to delete, but you better be equal and delete the rest of his trash while you're at it.

ok jus saying you said you never seen it and I gave you an example. I’m not saying this is the most common thing or we want a +400 N pac ridge. Of course not. Just that we have snowed with this kind of setup before when there were extenuating circumstances to overcome the pac pattern

HONESTLY, and I'm biased as an Eagles fan, the '91 Eagles defense ranks up there as the best I've ever seen. And after Randall goes down in game one and is out for the year, that offense was pretty bad but they managed to win 10 games. That was the year they sacked Aikman 11 times in Dallas haha.

While we’re dancing around the elephant in the room I’m going to address it. Look at the fucking 0z GFS Technically it’s a win! It snows for the NOVA and north crew. But seriously what the hell are we doing with our lives if we have a pure coastal low and the area of frozen in the dead of winter after 2 weeks of extreme cold is that small. I mean there’s almost no frozen on the north side! That’s not normal! It’s not a shit the blinds pattern. This is direct evidence that our planet has changed and I’m tired of dancing around that fact. If we lose storms like these then our lives are waiting for the one in 10 years shots like this January and praying chance lines up.

528dm over the top is all you're getting here in the east. Most times the Pacific pattern pumps a SE ridge, like this time. Notice your energy wave in the middle of the ridge. Maybe at some point in the future the pattern will appear and I'll say no rain! and I'll be wrong! One day..

The lowest they got down to in 2015 was 36º F. As of Feb 7, the 2015 temp was 1.8º F higher, 37.6º F vs 39.4º F.

Yup. This is the past 12 months. It’s red everywhere on average. Thicknesses are increasing. This is just the reality. And since snow requires cold…

Anybody else hit with wind the last half hour, one gust was so strong it had the house creaking Alien mothership?

That was the loading pattern. The pacific anomalies are identical.