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at this point it is not possible which model solution if any of them will be close to verifying - but there are vast differences in solutions now past 5 days - until a couple of them get to the point of basic agreement - confidence will increase probably in another 2 or 3 days. It was amazing though how far in advance they agreed on the current systems moving through especially the cold front sweeping across the nation scheduled to pass later Sunday - they had that solution for many days now.

The evolution of the GFS Thursday bomb is wild. The low initially comes up from the southwest and makes it nearly to State College. Then the brakes jam on, the low completely stops and proceeds to secondary due south to south central Virginia at which point it begins bombing, crashing from 997 to 983. I don't have to even look at the upper air maps to know that the low has to cut off and become stacked. It then jumps northeast to the tidewater area producing near blizzard conditions in DC/MD/DE with the low center over the northern most tip of Chesapeake Bay. So the cold air has completely encircled the low center as it brings the heavy snow up into south central / south eastern PA / then southern NJ, then northern NJ / NYC and onward to the northeast. Let's just say I did a little paraphrasing above, so I haven't described it as seen verbatim, but reasonably close. I can't think of a snowstorm that ever traversed the path the GFS is showing here. Instead of a secondary jumping to the coast, it jumps due south from our region and pops over south central Virginia before it slowly progresses NNE along the coast and even just inland over Maryland. Anyway, I took the time to do the PBP only because of the low's evolution and wild path it is shown to take. That caught my eye more than the snow, that is until accumulations around here had reached 12-20"...lol. Okay, that's it for me. (I hope you all know I don't believe it will likely pan out like this.) But it's just great to be tracking again, and even a potential monster later next week.

A weenie for a factual situation..lol.

Yeah it really would be...ahem...threading the needle

Yup!!!!

Maybe he saw the digital snow map and fainted lol

just wild that IU's coach was at JMU just two seasons ago lol.

For anyone wondering why each models output is so different - here it is AI Overview No, different weather models don't get the exact same data, and even with similar data, they interpret it differently due to unique physics equations, algorithms, resolution, and data assimilation methods, leading to varied forecasts, which is why meteorologists use multiple models for confidence. While core data (satellites, balloons) is shared, how each model processes it (initialization, grid size, physics) creates distinct outputs.

Where the hell is JI?! The man lives for getting digitally snow pummeled, and not even a peep? Epic fail. He probably doesn’t even like snow.

Seen some 588 dm in Oregon on the UK,nuts that's like having a death ridge in the Pac NW. Very high potential here,if the shortwaves can dig further southwest in my opinion.

Lol…ok. But Did we ever think there’d be blizzard conditions on the beaches of Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana? With 12” of wind driven snow. And snow 40 miles out into the gulf of America last January?? But it happened. Never say never bro.

That’s it!!

I don’t think this is our storm. Too early for us.

Not happening.

It's going to be a northern storm.

2016?

He loves weenies and is a limited poster.

Might want to Put your dentures in then…last year there was a blizzard on the gulf coast…while I was in N. Aroostook. Obviously, that doesn’t show the same thing, but don’t be so sure. Lol. I don’t discount anything at a week out. No matter how outlandish.

Yesterday I’d hoped to get up to Bolton for some afternoon turns and take advantage of some of the warmer temperatures, but I couldn’t get up to the mountain until after dark. That did allow me to get my first lift-served ski session of the season under the lights. It turns out that while temperatures crept above freezing in the valleys, the mountains stayed below freezing, so the snow never really had a chance to soften up. I was only able to sample terrain with manmade snow, since that’s most of what’s available under the lights, and it was about what one would expect on busy terrain. I’d say it was fairly middling in terms of typical manmade conditions that had seen plenty of skier traffic – not horribly icy, but certainly not universally soft by any means. It was decent snow for carving turns, and temperatures in the upper 20s F made it comfortable to be out. All the main Village parking lots were rather full when I arrived, and when I was leaving the mountain around 6 PM or so, cars were just streaming up the access road. I wouldn’t be surprised if Thursdays are one of their busier nights, but I’d definitely say that the night skiing scene at Bolton is alive and well. The fact that midweek night skiing tickets are only $29 is probably a factor in getting folks up to the mountain for turns as well – that’s just a fraction of the price for a typical daytime lift ticket.

I'd eat my laptop if that evolution happened verbatim.

Ukie is different than both the GFS and Canadian - would like to be under "hood" of these models and see what info - collected data- is being fed into them and how they are programmed to handle it

Gem a complete bust. But Ukie might be loading up at the end of its 168hrs run. Idk how it would end.

Rooting for IU over Miami. Way better story and I like Mendoza.

I don't like the northern stream trending dominant

This is an academic exercise of course, but relating to my last post showing intense snow over me, take a look at this sounding, and note the incredibly skinny DGZ.