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  2. Ginx snewx
    What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall.
  3. LakePaste25
    Close to Oct 1997 and 2015. The only difference is those years had more ridging north of the Bering sea. These were +PDO Ninos.
  4. dendrite
    I'd lean Wed morning...Tue AM we may still be mixed with CAA. But yeah, growing season may be on thin ice up here unless the intensity backs off...which is possible given it's 6 days out.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, May-June-July-Aug NAO was -0.75 per month, that comes out to -0.07/month for DJFM, or DJFM total of -0.28, based on 75 years. Weak correlation, but generally those 4 months negative then Oct pos is an interesting point for more winter -nao tendency.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    We have been dead-on past few years, but I may have to stray a bit this year lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay....so DJFM mean NAO of -.75...so 50% chance of having a mean DJFM NAO between -.25 and -1.25.
  8. SnoSki14
    I think the rain threat will return on the models.
  9. Ginx snewx
    Frost and freeze advisories will be flying for Tuesday morning.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    May, June, Aug, Sept NAO total was -3.00.. -0.75/mo. 3/4 months negative. I think the overall correlation from -0.75 MJJA to DJFM is -0.07/8 lol.
  11. jm1220
    Those homes and many others are in trouble if we repeat this 3-5 more times over the winter.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not with this. -PDO is cold water in the GOA. This is also anti-El Nino October
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Geez...that is convincing...I hate to go against the descending solar/W QBO/multidecadal trend, but that makes it tough. What you mean by -.75 PER MONTH.....isn't -.75 the DJFM aggregate mean per the formula?
  15. Cold Miser
    Some muted and some more vibrant colors around now. Big difference from a week ago.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like May-Aug NAO was -0.75/month and if October ends up +.. that is a formula for a more -NAO Winter. Plus since 2012 90N May-Sept SLP has reverse for the Winter every time, and it was strong neg anomaly this Summer.
  17. finnster
    Or Westminster has 0.03" and Parker 0.15". Bummer indeed. We'll have to import water from New Mexico at this rate. And in 30 hours from right now, Denver Water is prohibiting all outdoor watering for the foreseeable future, including next Spring till they say so. \ I hear ya. Weighing in here from the Fort Collins area. It looks like we're way too far north to cash in on any of this moisture. Should be getting to used to that by now but still get PO'd about it! Hope you guys in Denver metro get something out of it.
  18. cleetussnow
    Thats why we protect the dunes! While this is awful, they did their job. Other places were not so lucky, if you can call it that.
  19. WEATHER53
    That’s over a 15 foot shear!!
  20. backedgeapproaching
    I only have a small sample size of 12 years living here, but last year was by FAR the worst locally. Not even a close second in my opinion. I'm not an expert by any means, but pretty easy to explain last year I think- .75" in AUG and about 2.75" in Sept--that will probably do a number on foliage.
  21. Layman
    Colors aren't changing quick here but it seems to be on pace with other years. I'm just off the bay at 75' above sea level which could play a role. A stand out feature this year (that I've seen before but not every year) is the significant amount of pine sap. Cones, needles and sap everywhere this year.
  22. Today
  23. Mrs.J
    So we flew home yesterday. Had a layover in Dallas. Walking up off the plane on the jetway and back onto our flight to Baltimore it was like a sauna in there. We were told by the people we were house sitting for that they have really needed the rain out there also. The Rio Grande had just gotten down to a small stream/creek and what we saw when flying in was because of the El Nino rain. Was not expecting the humidity out there to be as high as it was so days felt like being back at home.
  24. Snowedin
    Yeah must be just my little corner of swampville keeping that underground moisture flowing more than surrounding spots. We live in an odd area of town literally surrounded by swampland and at nearly 200’ in elevation. Of course it’s pure conjecture on my part but I wonder if that plays a role. The acorns have been dropping like mad in the last few weeks so there’s that lol.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Back up at WXW2 and the color is spectacular.
  26. Prue11
    Cloudy…again
  27. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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