All Activity

I happily report the biggest bust in 15 years here. Yesterday's forecast was for a 50% chance of snow along the arctic front, with accumulation a dusting to less than an inch. We ended up with 6.2" of powder. The unforecast storm caused traffic gridlock, with 4-7" falling in the Detroit area. No models but the rgem even remotely sniffed it out as late as 12z yesterday when snow began at noon. To see such a unanimous model failure is startling in this day/age, so a word of caution with the many scenarios that undoubtedly lie ahead as the weather looks active and some more juice with the STJ

The GFS has been turning out some beauties lately. 60"+ in Ohio and now a slightly less but still impressive amount in Ontario.

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment ...slowly backs away.....seeks out nearest hedges to immerse self.

Not trying to break balls but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of ai as it pertains to weather models.

Euro OP looks terrible

That map is pretty paltry for most of the region. It might be too optimistic lol.

Our weather smacks of the mid 1980s, too.

Euro has completely nothing. Even more strung out and positively tilted. GFS-AI and Euro AI show light snowfall for most with moderate totals out east and northeast CMC has light-moderate snow too. Which camp do we follow: AI models and CMC? or everything else ?

OP euro looks like a clean whiff. Might be the furthest east now.

Stuck at 25.

CMC looks like a glorified FROPA with a way late developing low offshore afterwards imo

I spoke too soon..6-8 at the top. Skiing really well above 2500-2700’ or so. Bottom. 1/3 is heavy quad burning. Besides the fog, upper mountain is sweet. .

Bays mt. band looks to be starting up a bit now, I will try to drive through it heading back to MoCo.

The AI is learning on its own too..gotta take that into consideration also. Gets better every time.

Has there been any events specifically this winter where the AI models and their ensembles were hits while the ops and their ensembles were whiffs that ended up snowers ?

Definitely backed off from 00z last night, though still a small event down this way and NE NC.

Models one way the other models the other way

Valid point

Western end of Lee County had measurable Snow. .5-1.0. Northern section on Wise Plateau as well. A very light dusting here in central Lee County.

Yep. One of them is gonna crash and burn and it’s prob gonna be the AI guidance. But no guarantees. We wait and see.

You at least have a shot at some accumulating snow.

Got about an inch in 15 minutes.

6.2" total here. 24.4" season. Lots of drifting overnight.

Skynet also saves Scooter’s marriage at d10.

The negative Hoco/Moco deathband. FML!