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That almost looks too perfect

Especially the fact that it’s always at the end of the runs.

I'm not sure why you worry so much about the very end of the ens runs. You know this is subject to larger errors. I have done some analysis of each of the big 3(GEFS/EPS/GEFS) over multiple consecutive runs(fwiw lol), and I think there is a decent shot at a snow event mid month, +/- a day or so. Building EPO ridge, SW trough undercutting the western ridge with energy ejecting eastward, and a pretty solid look in the NA. All models to varying degrees indicate significant precip in the Tennessee valley with height lines oriented SW to NE. Ofc it might not work out but there is potential in that window on guidance. If it torches beyond that, so be it. As we know, these modeled warmups in the LR have been perpetually pushed back for months lol.

The 12z AI Euro & AI GEFS also show a very workable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

I’m guessing this is why Webb didn’t change back to heat miser?

Did any of the local airports or Central Park report any measurable snow from last night?

12z Synopsis EPS, EPS AI, CMC ensemble, & GEFS ensemble all have a very workable & generally similar look in the day 10 to 15 period. Only the GEFS looked different…but @CAPE said that it looked workable as well.

Hi. You’re wrong

Only where the snow is gone. Otherwise, the small rodents harboring the little beasts will be snug under the pack, safe from owls and other raptors.

The cliff jumpers need to invest in bungees.

The 12z AI Euro & AI GEFS also show a very workable look in the day 10 to 15 period.

I don't think I'd consider 40's a torch either, even during peak winter climo, although probably for northern New England I would. I guess though getting above like 47-48 may be a different story.

Still crunching the annual climate numbers for the other Chesco stations but at least here in East Nantmeal our average temperature for 2025 was 52.4 degrees this is the 5th coldest year in my 22 years at this location and the coldest since the 51.7 in 2013.

Still crunching the annual climate numbers for the other Chesco stations but at least here in East Nantmeal our average temperature for 2025 was 52.4 degrees this is the 5th coldest year in my 22 years at this location and the coldest since the 51.7 in 2013.

Its usually there all season but most notably in Feb. That also doesn't necessarily mean 100% the SER will pump the entire month either. Could it? Sure. But given the Dec up top pattern, I think there will be more of a resistance from the NAO and PV. Those early season looks tend to show up throughout the season.

Appreciate the info. You are correct in that 2006-07 was decent when I was in Lancaster/Philly. 2014-15 was okay down here in Baltimore. 1997-98 and 2018-2019 were hot garbage, IMO.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble in the day 10 to 15 period look very workable to me. I have no interest in freezing the orange groves while we have below zero temps. Last year a frigid 2 weeks in late January gave us “congrats Carolinas” & “congrats Gulf coast” when they snowed while we froze. I think many of us would welcome a pattern of just cold enough with chances to score snow. Bring on some moisture laden storms & let the chips fall during prime snow climo season.

The 12z EPS & 12z Canadian ensemble in the day 10 to 15 period look very workable to me. I have no interest in freezing the orange groves while we have below zero temps. Last year a frigid 2 weeks in late January gave us “congrats Carolinas” & “congrats Gulf coast” when they snowed while we froze. I think many of us would welcome a pattern of just cold enough with chances to score snow. Bring on some moisture laden storms & let the chips fall during prime snow climo season.

Today's weeklies are a touch better temp wise than yesterday. Maybe the bleeding has stopped?

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,' I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to. Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling. So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible. Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled. Yet it keeps happening. I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.

I guess I was expecting to see a ton of 50’s and 60’s based on some of the posts in here . Sure it’s a little warmer than normal, but it’s not a torch (at least on the EPS).

Today is the 32nd consecutive day on which the PNA is < 0. Despite the EPS and GEFS currently showing only a brief turn to positive, the historic evidence since 1980 suggests that a regime change to an extended period of a predominantly positive PNA is likely once the current stretch of PNA- concludes. Until one is in the short-range of the teleconnection forecasts, the base case remains a regime shift in the PNA, not a temporary fluctuation to positive values. All 10 prior streaks of 30 or more consecutive days since 1980 ended with a regime change in the PNA.