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Does the significant ice make in the the low country? Looks like some cold rain mixed with some brief freezing rain in Charleston/MB

Bourbon is broken out only for victory. Tonight we open the vodka

I can’t believe no one flagged 12z ensemble member 38. Where has the love gone

I’m ultra cautious 5 days out but trend is pointing possible big un’

ya things are looking up.. minor snowfall tomorrow night.. maybe a biggie later this weekend and another towards the end of next week

I've been saying this for 2 days. Suppression was least likely and too amped/north is the risk. A phase is really not gonna be good for a significant part of the area. Warm layers will mess things up and totals will be cut way back

Long Island?

won’t have to fall for us since the trees will be on the ground. And like every storm I’ll bust my ass on the porch

i think 15:1 sounds reasonable for the overrunning, if the coastal takes over than those will probably drop to around 12:1 or so! so figure 0.80 liquid on average 12-14 inches

Good news is 2-3” of rain will be great for the drought! Especially after it melts off all the fallen trees

As it departs the pressure gradients should get us some 30moh gusts

A few runs ago the euro snuck in a little bit of sleet , but then backed it down again so I think it’s gonna waiver.

Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component.

Some of these model runs temp wise are nuts by Mon and Tues. They have 99% of the lower 48 below freezing and not just freezing, down into the 20's and lower. Not buying it but nationwide freezing pipes? Oh Lawdy lol. I don't think I've ever seen that. I will take the 12Z Canuk weenie land for 100 lol

If that actually happens it means the years of bad things happening has flipped

18z AIFS Ensembles Folks were still good

Damn.

We finally dont have to worry about tje rain snow line.

Man, watching from the sidelines in Charleston is making me want to load up the truck and do some chasing. Feel so close but know that we are out of the game down here on the coast

not saying it won't be a big 'un, it's not impossible at all

Anyone doing a radio show or zoom call ?

Ok ok ok guys. You're getting a short break from him.

Probably not very high with the CAD, except maybe along the coast.

Ugh…..there’s still a pin for winterwxlvr. Hope that dude is out there somewhere.