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Same as you.

Here's my thinking based on the latest guidance and some of the longer-range guidance. I focus on what I believe are the three biggest potential scenarios for much of December.

Fantasy land on the GFS looks really good for the upper Midwest, but time will tell if it’s a trend or mirage. 0.03” of precipitation in November, something has got to give.

There was definitely bright banding, but it was moderate rain earlier. Came down good for awhile. I’m just more annoyed than anything.

About .25” here. Maybe a tenth left.

I will say I wish it had busted more. The well has been a little better, but it’s still tenuous.

We were definitely in the soup through last night:

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy.

.35-.4 there? It’s pretty light overall and moving out quick. Some of those echoes have a little bright banding too.

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

This would have been fluff. Probably will end up .35-.4ish. At least T-Day looks good and we were right to toss the gfs from yesterday.

wanna make a bet ?

If it was exceptionally fake.

Don’t know why people are jumping off the ledge a week before Thanksgiving. Acting like it’s game over for the whole winter when models are still struggling to get the longwave trough and ridge placements more than 10-12 days out. We will still get our chances/patterns. Maybe not the first half of dec, but I didn’t think that was ever in play to begin with. And I’m saying all this as someone who is calling for a “mid” kind of winter where we may only barely break double digits. And FWIW last winter the PV was stronger than normal, and we still got our cold air and snowfall.

This is terrible. What a bust.

Could have been a nice 4-6”.

Congrats on the couple tenths?

Winter has arrived and we're all very excited to see what Santa brings us this year. A snowy SWFE? Killer cutter? We'll soon find out. Also there are growing rumors of a latitudinal winter which could lead to a major regional war. Stay tuned!

I'm down visiting some of my wife's family in NJ this weekend. Took a ride out to visit her uncle in Long Valley. I think you were from that area? The trees are completely bare there and they have had snow twice and some decent cold according to her uncle. But today I am near EWR and it was like going back in time a full month+ or so with the trees and stuff flowering. Looks like EWR still hasn't gone below 32.

I'll take it for early December. I think we all do OK this winter, disproportionately better the further north imho

The quick rebound of the PV was forecasted weeks ago when the Euro Ext was first showing signs that there may be a reversal. I recall noting that before the end of the forecast period it appeared to rebound to around normal. Not sure how much this really matters tho. MJO possibly in 8-1 and a normal PV strength.

It takes it to a hair over the mean during the first week of January. What's the big deal? More normal presented as sensational on the internet.

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

In the bigger picture, it's not really a big deal. It happens rarely. I think the other notable one was in August when a lot of models were warm in the long range and it ended up being cool.