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Any chance this home brew nut punches this death ridge and maybe somehow pulls in some cold air from Canada (are we calling it something else now?) and gives me highs in the 50s?

We had a winter 40 some odd years ago in Old Forge, New York where we got 420". Had a chart up in Old Forge Hardware when I was growing up.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America (AL97): A low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America about 125 mils south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that this system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests along the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...50 percent.

Up to 50% odds

That’s why you gotta go out to them. It snows at the drop of a cold front out there. Last year I managed to sneak in an early November snow hike and a couple throughout January.

Mid point on the multi systems and the ecmwf plumes for rino 3.4 in August is about 2.2 C. I think the official noaa value should be fairly close to that number. That's an approximate warming of between 0.7 and 0.8C month over month. The funny thing in all this is some of this possible first month that nino doesnt beat nearly all forecasts thing is because the greatest surface and subsurface anomaly is located east of Nino 3.4. Thats not evidence of weakness.

Yeah and it looks like several chances of local drenchers coming up this week with CNJ/NNJ favored. What else is new?

12z Euro: looks like a TD that comes ashore near LA/TX border midday Tue.

I drank two the other night. I turned the air down to 66 and closed the blinds. Worked like charm.

8 years old vacation in NH Maine went up the COG 70 degrees by the time we got up it was 32 snowing. They turned us us around and closed top. We were camping in a remote cabin and absolutely froze our balls off.

Everyone knows how unpopular the coast of Maine is with tourists...

Its still a unique NINO and will probably carry its own anologs into winter.The DMI or Indian ocean diphole if you wanna call it doesnt even rank this around a top ten event per JMA Mean while a couple its ensemble members seems to join camp show now this might be the strongest ever,duuno This seemingly shows no break down into the Walker Circulation with the trades coming off Africa and not South America,in which the few few days should probably kick off the Sahara dust. Gernerally the IOD falls into fall just as well does the PDO but the PDO can fluctuate into winter

Hottest days of the year potentially as a heat dome moves north, first month of met fall and a raging record breaking El Niño. Discuss.

I’m talking about models that had avg for Aug minus avg for July ~1C. It’s looking more like just 0.5C.

That's a problem for this area. Barns Corner is in the heart of the snowbelt. Legend has it there's been 500+ inch winters.

the highest august value minus the lowest july value is over 1c

Cant get more than one sunny day around here anymore

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

Heavy rain shower IMBY, wasn’t expecting this today…

12Z UKMET doesn’t quite designate this as a TD but it does have 25 knot winds just offshore LA Mon night and landfall Tue AM near TX/LA border. Lowest SLP only gets down to 1011 mb fwiw.

Tiny downpour dropped 0.07" here.

12 UKMET: ex-Dolly becomes a TD right before it moves NW into FL NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.5N 78.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 04.09.2026 108 27.5N 79.5W 1008 29 1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 29.2N 81.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 30.8N 83.2W 1008 24 1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 32.0N 85.4W 1009 19 0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 32.8N 87.3W 1008 18 1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 33.1N 87.9W 1008 20

Ineedsnow asleep at the wheel. Disappointing.

But lake effect snow never makes it over the Alleghenies.