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Miss to the south, bummer. Santa Fe has picked up 3.5" from this system.

Cansips for Canada probabalistic forecast. You'll need to guess for US outside northern tier. 4-6 month period covers JFM. It's dated today. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

This is a probalistic forecast for Canada that you may be able to extrapolate for northern US. 4-6 months covers JFM. It is dated 9/30 https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

Jumped north from 6z. AI version went south.

Absloutley

Anyone got cansips?

out and about today and plenty of folks commenting on today's warmth

0.01" so far from what only 36-48 hours ago was supposed to be a flood concern.

Euro has it sunday night now

they love sunny and 70/50

in mid winter form already

Trying to get my yard to dry to pick up the disaster from the storm. This sucks.

For sure. Steve pointed that out a few posts ago. Bad forecasts the last couple days.

The EURO AI ensembles/GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles dont seem too impressed here is the 50 percentile which actually went south from 6z

The partial sun lasted 20 minutes then back to full cloud deck

The WPC is tossing the physics models and buying ECM AI and GFS AI. This will be very interesting!!

Not much sun here today so far, a bit in the morning. Sky cover forecasts have been too agressive/optimistic.

Hey there

Fun model confusion for Sunday. All 12z models went north except euro ai, which went back south. Op euro has 2” to the south side of 495.

Looking like a stretch of 10/10 normie weather to start.

I was talking more about the extreme N/S cutoff, not where exactly it sets up. Unfortunately, looks like it may be Parker to Monument. Already half an inch of rain in the Springs today.

Yeah and that's generally the theme with the last 30 years vs the 30 years prior. Cooler months now are usually a result of cooler max temps while the mins are generally trying to pull the mean upward. Yeah, occasionally we get a month with some near record mins (Sep 2020), but they're pretty rare now. I'm not trying to get into another CC debate...just stating what the data and trend has been the last 75 years. The thing is I don't think the average person understands that we recalculate the normals every 10 years. So when they see "-1F September 2026" you start seeing posts online like "so much for global warming". Anyway...63.5F so far today. It's hard to believe, but my warmest temp this month is only 76.8F with 10 days of 70+. But it was another very safe month of mins with only one in the u30s and it's 5 straight days here of 52+ mins.