All Activity

Interesting about Hurricane Gabrielle. Heated straight to Portugal. nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/240532.shtml?cone#contents

Heavy rain starting here now, looks juiced upstream. Had around 1.3 inches overnight last night.

Warmer October still look likely. Long range models have +EPO, which I have stressed is a connected -PDO pattern, strongly, in October. What I mean is the PDO as an independent variable, not connected to 0-time conditions and influenced by them. It's working for the 2nd year in a row, as the PDO has been strongly negative in both of those October's.

With a trough possibly in SE Canada at the time of closest approach no direct hit is definitely on the table.

I don't expect anything from these two tropical waves. They could become hurricanes but are likely out to sea.

No rain at home. 42 here this am!

I think we need to see how the next few weeks play out, but definitely true that most missed the early September peak of the season being historically dead.

Fantastic fall soaking. 1.2" of light to moderate rain over the past 36 hours.

.88” in 30 minutes

Any chance of a weak west based Modoki Nino?

I mean that one coastal low should have been named. 6 inches of rain here and coastal flooding.

Nothing.

Good lightning with this storm.

I could see it being a -EPO / -PNA / southeast ridge kind of winter with a few brief but relatively intense cold shots but overall warmer than last year. I've heard that the North Atlantic anomalies signal a +NAO, but if we get some transient blocking in January or even March, we could luck into something. 2021-22 was mostly like that except for Jan and we had chances. I don't even think there was much blocking that year. If we had had Dec 2022 later on, it also could have produced. Something like 2017-2018 or last year is probably the best case scenario. (I'm using 1981-2010 anomalies in this image on purpose. It's just so hard to get a legitimately cold winter now. Even this September is likely going to end up above normal here.)

At least the Pacific has perked up this year...maybe that'll help flush out the stagnation in the pattern. Looks like Hong Kong getting knocked around by Ragasa...

Rain hitting the roof sounds good. Its been a little while.

Aaaannnnndddd there's lightning in Litchfield County CT...

I still think it's too early to get a great sense for anything in the US. This is a really complicated steering pattern, in large part driven by the proximity of 93L and 94L. Folks along the coast should definitely pay attention to this one, though there's no real need for concern yet. The Euro trend toward a strong 94L is interesting though. That's definitely something to watch.

Hurricane Josh aka iCycone aka Josh Morgerman is chasing this one in China.

If there is going to be a period of more widespread showers, it looks to be very early Thursday. Otherwise, there will be some big winners with the scattered convection each day (especially Thursday), but it doesn't look to be particularly widespread.

Maybe but what's a bust to you?

Back at WXW1 and it's downright tropical

I mean, the first thing when discussing New England tropical is caveating it to death about how hard it is to get legit tropical up this way. Now that that's out of the way, if we're talking about strictly a NE landfall I agree with @FXWX, the overall setup does not lend itself to a Long Island Express scenario. Not even close. Here's what the general NE landfall steering pattern looks like: And here are the latest 500mb depictions of the EPS and GEFS for Monday at 12z: The GFS/GEFS originally led the way in highlighting the possibility of TC genesis, but has seemed to be way off with trying to consolidate 93L and 94L off the southeast coast. That has its own implications but just look at the 500h vs the usual NE setup. Yeah, there's a cutoff in the southeast, but the ridge is too far west and that opens an escape hatch to the east even if this landfalls further south. The EPS is a little more interesting to me but you can see the same issue. The cutoff and ridge over the top brings a potential US threat, but its further south, again because the ridge is too far west and that opens the escape hatch to the east. Here's 18z Euro operational: Even with a highly anomalous potential interaction off the SE coast with two hurricanes, you have the same issue, though the UL cutoff is still around and there is a strong Atlantic ridge (that would likely still lead to an escape hatch with that NW flow in SE Canada). What you'd need for a coastal runner imo is either 1) the ridge quickly translating east over SE Canada, thereby blocking the escape hatch or 2) a stronger and further north cutoff that can capture and pull whatever is out there into the coast (though even there you risk a close miss rather than a direct strike). This is very different further south, especially in the Carolinas if this is buried in the Bahamas and there's a cutoff to the west. So while this could very well be a SE or even Mid-Atlantic threat, right now a direct NE hit looks least likely. With so many moving pieces however and the trends that we could see either way with the amplitude and orientation of the ridges/troughs, I do think this is worth watching. Whether it is worth more attention here than anything we've had sense Henri or Isaias remains to be seen. This does look like a rare scenario where both invests develop despite their proximity.

That 18z Euro run is nuts

Typhoon Ragasa looking powerful on satellite as it passes just south of Hong Kong.