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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Blizzard of 93 replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Great early season storm! It started as a little rain & wet snow in the LSV. The heavy precip band arrived in the late morning & the snow rates became heavy by around noon & persisted until early evening. I think we got 8 or 9” of snow. Many people went to work because it didn’t start until mid morning & most forecasts were for maybe a slushy few inches on grassy surfaces. The heavy rates meant business & it was one of the worst commutes home for me. I-81 was a nightmare that afternoon in the Harrisburg area with many accidents. -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
tamarack replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Had 23° at 11 last evening with bright stars, figured 1st teens were a cinch, but that was the bottom - must've had clouds moving in shortly after. Pure sun at the moment, a rare phenomenon in November. -
It's about time
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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TheBudMan started following November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
Voyager replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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65 today? Doesn’t seem like it
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This is a quote from USA tday online: "La Niña vs. polar vortex? Forecast warns of 'extraordinary' winter weather. A sudden, dramatic shift in temperatures high in the atmosphere will dance with the La Niña weather pattern. There won't be a clear winner, and forecasters are still determining how cold it could get." Epic battle shaping up.
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the sun feels so dim and weak
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Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree. The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO ) does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen.
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How much more frequently has this been happening (i.e. 20% more often than the previous 50 year average)? Not arguing, just want to get an idea.
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
HIPPYVALLEY replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I had two lined up for tomorrow, but the weather isn’t going to cooperate. -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
He stopped winterizing it in winter 22-23 I think…it became too much with its size. I think the early Feb 23 cold shot did it in. He boxed it in with a wooden frame…maybe some insulation? And I think he had Xmas lights inside to keep it warm. -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
WinterWolf replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I remember you, or somebody posting this before…curious, how do you winterize a tree? - Today
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
WinterWolf replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
They saw that huge snowman, and rushed to get the trucks out salting…before all hell broke loose. -
November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
ineedsnow replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Because i sent it to them -
Looks very warm in the East starting Thanksgiving week
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I will take a few inches of snow to rain in a heartbeat. Old fashion winters.
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Those MJO analogs are variable based on ENSO and they’re not always high correlation. But if a wave moves into Phase 8 strongly in mid December, that should be supportive of cold and snow chances.
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Fingers crossed, it does look like the pattern could be favorable to at least get us on the board. It might be an overrunning scenario with the SE ridge where NYC changes to rain, but we’d be on the board at least.
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
CoastalWx replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
They must follow Ineedsnow -
amazing how many la nina winters turn out to be wet for southern california..
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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...
dendrite replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
You can never be too safe. -
Anybody wanna sign, I can work up a memo
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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs
ChescoWx replied to ChescoWx's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Eight years ago today we were in the middle of a snowstorm that would bring between 4" to 7" of snow across the county. A little different here today with today being our warmest day till Friday. Clouds are on the increase with a few showers possible by evening. Rain amounts look pretty light with under 0.10” A cold front crossing the area will move through overnight and we will see winds increasing from the west and temperatures dropping during the day on Sunday. Below normal temperatures for most of the work week with highs in the 40's and lows near or below freezing. We warm to near 50 degrees on Thursday with rain chances increasing by Thursday night.
