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I am definitely interested in the time frame around Halloween. The 12z GFS gets VERY close to something good for NE TN. The CMC isn't that much different. The Euro never entrains southern energy.... I am going to guess that has an inland runner.

When have they been good exactly? I dont remember that time. Just look at past threads here over the years for confirmation

That does play a role. Model performance has been very inconsistent and poor lately

Not sure if that's a cutter but its good to see it active.

With regard to the latest literature on Siberian snow cover, that would tend to be the case when snow cover is above normal during the fall.

I hope we don't get into a pissing contest, blaming poor forecasts on budget cuts?

No cold (direct) polar air yet in our area. If I read Don correctly, when the coldest air is in Siberia around this time, we should probably expect the dreaded Pacific Jet to dominate?

The cutter after the cutter?

About eight times the current missing American balloon data is absent globally on any given day, and yet we don't see extensive articles talking about models not performing as they should because of all those missing balloons.

The models have gone from showing a true coastal storm/nor’easter to an inland runner/cutter

its only October and we are already extrapolating the 384 hr GFS

Interesting. I never really look at intensity models once the inner core is established, because often times, all bets are off.

Heavy bands of rain starting to hit Jamaica

Yeah pretty clear he was never going to play. He ran the Scout team- not considered a FULL practice. QBs who are on the mend and not ready yet do that. Also look at the other moves- like explicitly naming Huntley the No 2, and adding him to the 53 man roster.

Woof for New england

Heck of a weenie range nuke on the euro

12z Euro doesn’t quite connect all the way to the offshore hurricane moisture. But still has some spots going 2”+ with a decent looking squall line as the low cuts to our west. Maybe with some luck we can get a little more of a moisture connection in later runs to push the rainfall potential higher.

Euro looked to be trending towards Canadian though. GFS has performed poorly overall with Melissa

Ha...well the funny thing is, in his usual fashion, he never said Lamar was playing so he's covered, lolol

12Z Euro: goes back to an extent to the pre 0Z/6Z runs by being a bit further S of Jamaica thus helping it to get stronger (962) and thus it hits Jamaica at 971 instead of 986-8. It then goes back to a NE move over Jamaica and exits at 977 vs 992 of 0Z/6Z. As a result, the 20” line goes back further W to center of Jamaica.

No lies were told. I wonder how much of the ~18% of our snow climo we’ve lost is due to the fact our pre new years snowfall has fallen off a cliff.

Southeast gales. Dec. 18, 2023

Euro and CMC have drastically different solutions than gfs. They both spin up a low in the upper OHV and then meanders north, giving us the likes of severe rather than a coastal.

61 and mostly sunny about to go mostly cloudy