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The summers haven't lengthened 2 months is my point. This October is very abnormal warmth wise, especially out your way. Im not sure what your exact averages are being 80 miles south of Chicago, but the Chicago area saw several October snowfalls in recent years. Naturally Michigan or Wisconsin are colder, but you cant consider a top 10 or 5 month "normal". November looks to start with well above avg temperatures, and it will be interesting to see how the back half of the month plays out, because November has the largest difference of any month from first to last day of the month, so the natural quick descent into winter November sees will be fighting the influence of a strong nino.

cold fronts should be illegal

Thanksgiving is late again this year…that’s 4 weeks away…you won’t make it. As I said to you the other day…the later we get, the more dicey it becomes…you’ll frost/freeze at the drop of a hat at some point in the next 4weeks.

Phenomenal.

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

Probably Thanksgiving 01. 01-02 was an awful winter.

Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~5-6C and only to ~-57C vs early Nov record of -43C and others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:

Yes and a record breaking ice storm up north too. Any idea what it did in the Poconos Chris? I was on Long Island for that winter but I'm now at my other house in the Poconos at 1551 feet. I might need to get ready for ice storms up here. I hope not because I have electric heat. I have propane fireplaces too but I don't want to use them unless I really need to.

I don't remember if it was Thanksgiving of 01 or 02 but I planted grass seed on the side of our house in RI. It grew and was thick by New Years. That next January there were cherry blossoms out in Providence.

You seem surprised. Get used to it! Very strong El Nino - 'nuff said!

More like the 97 Nino than anything,by far the Eastern Pac into the thernocline is nothing comparable right now,you wont find much of a analog and i still would not use 2015,nothing close.While these maps are still Dec,it shouldnt change unelss the MJO just sits the whole month of Nov into the IO,which would be rare in a strong Ninio

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)

Do you have any idea how things may eventually evolve with a record strong niño, -PDO, +QBO, and possible SSW, albeit very early in the game? I think its very interesting

Wife got a song in Russian on her Holiday Playlist It translates to "If there was no winter" Pretty sure Forky would love it since all he preaches is warm and rainy Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Just some preseason practice for the heart of winter.

It showed up for an hour straight and included visibility reductions.

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps. .

How many days in a row without measurable rain? This is such an eventful time of year for weather. 1925, 1940, 1991, 2011, 2012. October 1925 was the Octoblizzard for the DC area. I noticed you mentioned the record NJ tides during the Perfect Storm weren't these exceeded in the December 1992 super noreaster? And October 2024. Which is why those are two of my analogs. I wish lol. Absolutely Awesome. Yes and an earthquake lol. October 2001 and October 2024 should be analogs. 8.5 inches here and up to 14 inches on the Jersey shore. That was a blown forecast. It's fine at that point. After the beginning of November I'm in indoor mode until the middle of March. Except when I'm cleaning up the leaf drop. Is there a way to see a county by county version of this map? The local news station said that up to a foot of snow fell here but I think with elevation it could have been twice as much.

Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much: But Nino 3 has had a steady rise: Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:

I’ve got a hunch we’re going to see a super dry month or two locally. Probably won’t beat 2002-2003’s all time driest winter period locally but we certainly could flirt with an all time driest month. I’ve got my money on a super dry JAN