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Gone before it ever developed. CV season is here!

Incentives? You mean subsidies Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

And part of the problem with 22-23 was the timing of those favorable patterns. They happened outside of our peak winter window. Had they occurred in Jan and Feb instead of Dec and Mar, the outcome would probably not have been a ratter like it was.

Steined yesterday in far eastern CT, temp 71F to start this am

At least they’ll be waves. Good bye Erin.

Starting to think there's probably no chance of this making landfall on the US east coast. It could still get close but landfall really looks unlikely now.

Somehow I’m not seeing how the euro long term vs the mjo phases match

Man, may the day where you don’t get psyched but a huge thunderstorm maturing over you dumping loads of rain with frequent thunder and lightning never excite you never arrive.

Lock it up!

0Z Euro: 200 miles E of 12Z/recurves near 72.5W vs 75W of 12Z and yesterday’s 0Z recurving near 70W.

Followup to above: 0Z UKMET has a similarly placed TD following Erin vs the 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 15.9N 28.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 15.9N 28.1W 1010 33 0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 15.8N 30.4W 1009 29

there was some heavy rain for awhile with lightning and thunder and an odd purple colored sky close to sunset. Nothing severe (which we don't need) but some heavy rain without flooding was nice to see

0Z UKMET is similar to 12Z with recurve at 71.7W TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 45.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.08.2025 0 16.4N 45.8W 1007 31 1200UTC 14.08.2025 12 16.7N 48.8W 1006 31 0000UTC 15.08.2025 24 17.8N 51.8W 1006 32 1200UTC 15.08.2025 36 19.0N 55.5W 1006 32 0000UTC 16.08.2025 48 20.0N 58.9W 1005 33 1200UTC 16.08.2025 60 20.5N 62.6W 1002 33 0000UTC 17.08.2025 72 20.4N 65.4W 999 32 1200UTC 17.08.2025 84 20.6N 67.2W 997 34 0000UTC 18.08.2025 96 22.3N 68.2W 994 40 1200UTC 18.08.2025 108 24.2N 69.6W 992 44 0000UTC 19.08.2025 120 26.1N 70.6W 989 46 1200UTC 19.08.2025 132 27.9N 71.3W 986 50 0000UTC 20.08.2025 144 30.0N 71.7W 982 52 1200UTC 20.08.2025 156 32.5N 71.5W 979 58 0000UTC 21.08.2025 168 35.0N 70.3W 972 62

00z ICON shifts farther west but replaces a high out in the northern Atlantic with a trough, which is not the scenario you’d want to see for even a glancing blow. That being said there’s still a ton of variation with the upper level environment 8 days out. I thought it was an easy recurve a day ago, still the most likely scenario but worth watching for the next couple of days.

It is well worth it. At least it was until your oligarch regime is stripping away green energy incentives.

Saw my gauge got about 0.2”. Was ok with that until I looked at the radar estimates of over 4” just a few miles away. Alas. Hit 101 on the car thermometer today near SLC. Dusty as hell. Think I prefer the humidity in DC.

Rode this NNE heat wave out in the Allagash, just returned this evening but was on the river since last Thursday. Holy shit what a bizarre yet amazing trip - this was my tenth and truly one of a kind. Never put a rain fly on the tent and basically lived in the river when not paddling. Truly a unique experience for a northern river trip. Water was scary warm in the main stem but we still managed to find and eat some brookies from the feeder streams.

At Least 3 Killed in Tennessee Flooding as More Rain Is Forecast Rescue crews pulled people out of submerged cars and homes overnight as floods swept the southeastern part of the state. A family of three was killed outside Chattanooga and emergency crews conducted water rescues as floods swept through Tennessee overnight. More flooding was expected in the eastern part of the state on Wednesday. After midnight, a large tree fell and crushed the car of a family in East Ridge, a suburb of Chattanooga, said Amy Maxwell, a spokeswoman for the Hamilton County Office of Emergency Management. “They died on the scene,” she said. “It’s obviously due to the loose soil that caused the tree to fall.” https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/us/flooding-chattanooga-tennessee.html

Yeah I talked to a neighbor when I got home from Seaside Heights tonight and he said there were lots of close lightning strikes. One of the best lightning events of the last few years. Fast moving storm though so it only dropped 0.32" here. At least it was enough to give things a watering. I can finally take a break from watering the vegetable garden tomorrow.

It is the same issue I had with folks thinking there were not 2013/14 style patterns showing up last season but since it did not snow nearly as much last year it was not a match. Not everything is exact and unfortunately you will not change the minds of folks, it is what it is. To redistribute that amount of warming you likely need consistent typhoon recurves and at that strong consistent synoptic activity coming off China/ Koreas/ Japan. Tropical activity has been very sluggish in the WPAC for some time and when we do have activity the main track has been almost due west at low latitudes with the stronger systems (maybe 1 or 2 systems in a season actually recurving) or 'home grown' systems (close to land formation). Honestly let's just see how it all plays out.

Does that mean Erin is visiting us

Nothing really new from the NHC. The real interest will come with the 00z suite and whether this westward adjustment due to a less aggressive Canadian trough and rebuilding Atlantic ridge continues.

TNT45 KNHC 140238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025 Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity. Overall, there hasn't been a lot of change with the satellite presentation, and that is reflected in recent stable Dvorak and scatterometer values. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The environment around Erin should remain marginally conducive during the next day or so, which will likely promote gradual strengthening. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move across warmer waters, with potentially a decrease in shear. This evolution results in a period of potential rapid intensification late this week, and the official forecast reflects that possibility. While shear is generally forecast to increase over the weekend, this appears to be canceled out by large-scale divergence and water temperatures above 29C. Most models respond to this by showing a lower rate of intensification at that time. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward somewhat from the previous forecast beyond 24 h based on the current guidance. There is increasing confidence on a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend. The initial motion is now 270/14 kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track or steering. Erin should move westward overnight and then west-northwestward from Thursday through the weekend due to steering from the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to break by early next week, resulting in a turn towards the northwest or north-northwest. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast in the near term, and on the eastern side of the guidance envelope by day 5 between the consensus and the Google Deep Mind model. There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. 2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Patel

Good Lord please. No more Westward trends! "Right when you think your out, they suck you right back in."