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A cousin of mine played at Tech. Played in the first ever BCS Championship game. I can't tell you how STOKED I am to continue to have to deal with this fn guy.

D8-14 analogs from CPC today. Really pulling for the Dec 09 thread to be THE analog. 19851121 19561203 19851116 19721207 19641123 20051202 19961113 20081214 20091207 19801203

I recommend unpinning this thread and pinning John's December thread. All deterministic threads(as John notes) have December within their sites.

Thanks, man. Good points as well.

It’s a snow type of chilly outside rn.

latest 18Z GFS painting over .75" QPF for much of our area, has been trending upward:

Started a December thread since the op Euro/GFS are now there.

We are now into December with the OP runs. The first 7 to 10 days of December are likely to be warm, with a possible brief cold shot or two. After that, we have some potential factors that would introduce cold into the pattern. A cooperative MJO, a well place EPO ridge, a weaker than normal, if not split, SPV, all look possible as we head into the period of December 15thish towards the end of the month. See Carvers Weeklies post in the fall thread for what December looks like when the Euro has the MJO moving through more favorable areas.

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December.

The models are pretty reflective of the MJO. When they run and the MJO slows way down in 6, the warmth carries forward. The Euro is moving it to 7/8 faster than the GFS, which means cold arriving quicker by a bit vs the GFS. A weak SPV, MJO in 8, a cooperative Pacific, would mean cold and unfortunately, maybe dry cold. I saw another person talking about analog years and 1962-63 was in there again for them. It was 70s up until December 7th-10th time frame. Then it got colder and colder. This year had a similar October with a late frost, a similar November, with a cold and snow shot, then warmed up, it was a week La Nina with a falling QBO into deep negative. I also saw that in La Nina years when December had a -PNA, January almost always had a +PNA.

Where the hell is Red sky? We have a good one out there... old time slacker, I'll tell you.

Franklin heading to Hokie nation.

Very chilly today

That’s actually good to know. I’ll try on my wife’s iPad later.

Definitely a winter feel today with that wind.

Close call for the Twin Cities tomorrow. Bad thermals and a razor sharp northern edge.

Better cut this shit out before you get swarmed by the mountain top farmers...

30% bust 50% normal 20% boom

33 the high gust here

50.4 for my high which I think is the third coolest of the season

Seems like they won’t load on my IPad. Worked on my laptop.

The Weeklies do mirror what @John1122shared earlier in the winter or fall thread(from Grit).

The ridge finally broke down and it snowed mainly west of the Continental Divide today. This has been a huge reason why it wasn't snowy

The can kicking has paused...and the control and ensemble are now singing the same song as noted above. They have recently been on opposite sides of things with the control winning the battle! I say that, because we kind of hope the control might be right today. Here the 32 day control run - temps are accentuated BN by heavy snow which falls after the 20th. In general, temps are 10-15 BN regardless of snow cover. This would rival any December cold outbreak. The second is the 7 day ensemble mean which is centered on Christmas. The 500 pattern is nice, especially after the first week of December. LONG way out there, but fun to look at... For those of you who are new OR are visiting from other forums, we often put maps to brainstorm/discuss, admire, or just for future reference. They are NOT forecasts at this range. I prob should have placed this in the winter thread! But.....I already have this ready to go, so will leave it here. If a mod wants to switch it to winter, no problem. Anyway, for new folks (or visitors) we kick a lot of stuff around in this forum. We are often not afraid to be wrong which I think is what makes this a great place. You can take a risk. Another great thing about this subforum is that we have no incentive to drive numbers with posts that you will see on social media which are designed to get clicks. If you see us post a map, we are just adding to the conversation. Never be afraid to ask a question. Unless the poster has a red tag(an actual meteorologist! thank you to those folks!), the rest of us do this as a hobby. Now, we do have a couple of folks here who have chosen not to get a red tag who are also mets. You will figure out who they are pretty quickly. I am definitely not one of those folks - just a fun hobby.

I don't know why there aren't any windmills in the industrial park by Hazleton. It's always windy in/up here.