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Ebb and flow of climate is interesting. We were not on a heater there in some of those SNE 2010s seasons. But it’s been a run the past two seasons.

Only model showing really anything is the gfs. Not great

Sitting at 36/24. Not expecting anything out of this coming up. Bummer. Maybe we can pull a surprise!

We’ll melt it out a few days later anyways as our clipper becomes a cutter.

Yeah, it really blows up once it gets past us. This is the type of system I feel like we had trend better in this timeframe back in like 2014-17 timeframe. We haven’t had any luck with that since

Really that's going to be the challenge ... I realize I hit at this aspect a lot and probably it's getting on nerves, I dunno - folks don't seem to acknowledge they understand, or perhaps they don't give a shit. LOL either way ... but the fastness of the basal velocity, is also matched by the fact that embeded S/W are torpedoing at huge speeds relative to planetary climate. We're seeing them enter B.C. and exit the EC of N/A in like 60 hours. It's very physically challenging to get streams to resonate with that circumstantially going on. But that said, it doesn't mean it can't just be enough... or perhaps slow down even ( thus allowing more harmonics), if the non-linear +PNA ( which is in fact bursting in that time range - mentioned this earlier to Southcoast' ) becomes more linearly expressed. This morning ... as I glanced over the overnight largely disappointing cinemas, it occurred to me just how fantastic the overall B-C gradient is over our side of the hemisphere. Perhaps more raw potential explosive power, untapped, than I've ever seen since becoming aware of this shit back in 1990+ ... But there's shot-gun pellet S/W that are all having trouble resonating and are just blasting past one another. We just need the large wave scales to curve more - which they are challenged to do ( again..) because the speed saturation.

CMC looks meh

Keeping with the theme of this winter, my prediction will be less than an inch for MBY. If more than that Terpeast can eat a shoe

Timing similiar to other models? 4-7 am or so? .

Euro was out to see on the last storm in GFS is better with the northern stream yes?

They only recently dropped the C in front of the RAP

Dover reported 7.0 and Rochester had reports of 8.0 and 7.0. PSM only 4.6".

IMO you have been traumatized by repeated cycles of expectation/hype followed by failure/disappointment. Those "patterns" you speak of were imaginary constructs created by weather hobbyists in an era of 4 times per day models run out to 16 days. Models and certainly meteorologists cannot accurately predict regional weather out past 10 days. So don't be fooled. In the 90s we had a handful of short range models out to 2 or 3 days and a handful of medium range models out to 5 or 7 days. They ran twice a day. People didn't pretend to "see" favorable patterns way out in fantasy range. And hobbyists weren't therefore disappointed by not realizing the imagined potential. It is always hard to get snowstorms near NYC. A lot has to go right for it to happen.

Good luck! Sending you all snow and cold from Chicago. Posting back in here under my new name.

I will not hear any RAP slander. Kuchie 1+ for much of Maryland

I have Monday's off so would be perfect for me

Wish we had a bit more downstream ridging but let's see if it can dig more and phase a bit earlier. It becomes a nuke south of Nova Scotia

Monday morning commute disaster on the gfs. Nice little event Monday morning. How we pray

Euro doesn't look bad IMO.

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper.

Even on the lesser guidance...the signal for a 70-80 knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough as the trough is getting ready to swing across New England...pretty good signal for at least some degree of amplification.

Hopefully other models start showing besides the NAM and GFS

Ambient ws5000