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might the start of a string of nor easters with the nino

Yesterday's frost toasted all of the cucurbits, only minor damage to peppers and tomatoes. They're a bit higher, especially the 'maters. Quite the run of sun here, though it ends later today. September here has had the most proportion of available sunshine of any month, slightly more than August. (November and December jockey for least, with the latter currently 'winning'.)

I still like the February blizzard.

Not too bad presently. It doesn’t feel as windy as yesterday. The last high tide got into the dunes but didn’t damage them.

This is the most exciting storm in the Atlantic this year.

Tides are flying up today! At 854 approaching action stage with highest tide all week so far! High tide isn't too 945 am... minor flooding pretty certain this morning.. Very very concerning

Greensboro got down to 49, Winston-Salem 47. I always think fall is off to a good start when we get below 50 in September.

According to Uptons point and click, it’s going to be “breezy” for the island. I’m running to Dicks to get a kite

It's almost like a TUTT on steroids in some ways.

nothing tropical on that look

No kidding

Polo might be making another run at sub 900 mb. This satellite presentation speaks for itself with intense lightning data around the eyewall.

Rehoboth Beach Cam https://www.visitdebeaches.com/webcams/live-boardwalk-cam-atlantic-sands-hotel-in-rehoboth-beach/

The 0Z Euro ens increased the chance of “tropical cyclone activity” off the Mid-Atlantic coast during the weekend to its highest yet of any run and the highest possible, >90%! Yesterday it wasn’t as high for the weekend as it was peaking at ~80%.

^^^'Cept model guidance has gotten stronger

There's no reason why Long Island shouldn't be under these.

That guy has been trolling these forums for years. I don't know why anybody engages him.

Tampa is desperate to avoid 0-3, so I wouldn’t be shocked if we tripped up this week, but hopefully Murray shows something.

Walking down to the ocean now in Rehoboth to check out conditions as the tide comes in.

OC report: it’s cloudy, breezy, wind advisory for tonight. No rain at least!

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

By small amounts ...some more coherent than others, the guidance were too deep/structurally evolved for what is observed at 12z May or may not be indicative of much. We'll see. We may be disappointed in Now-cast ranges. I'm not completely sold on how far above pedestrian inclemency this will be. I think the lunar tides and surface feed-back should be fun either way. Op ed that no one asked for but ... my original impression of this scenario from 2 or 3 days back was that it was dubiously too amplified in the guidance. Two main reasons for suspecting so ... 1, the total S/W wave mechanics feeding into the region were very weak. As far as I can tell that still seems to be the case. At the time this was a bit of a head scratch as to what was driving this ordeal. The best I could surmise was that this was a very (if perhaps unusually so) non-linear in origin. The circulation mode from the eastern Pac across N/A is technically is in a strong, albeit transient, negative PNAP. The polar branch retreated N very quickly, earlier in the week - so fast it left a weakness pearled out from the S Lake through the mid Atlantic.. Similar to a "pinch cut-off" you see in April climo - but it is doing it amid a higher ambient height medium. You realize, the hydrostats are in the mid 560s during this - we've been close to 90 F at the surface with 566 dm thickness before! Yet, it's so raw.. It's bizarre, maybe some tized aspects going on... Anyway, a ridge from James Bay clear to Florida would be geophysically hard to maintain, particularly when the flow around it is not that strong. So the heights inside 'implode' ... My feel on that is that the models were over assessing this ambient, large scaled mass balancing response, as a total forcer. 2, the other reason is much simpler ... guidance et al tend to shed amplitude as they move events from the extended toward the short lead periods. It's really quite a dependable corrective behavior. It's never been abundantly clear why they do this, but I suspect it has something to do with not yet seeing the emergence of noise/offsets/and interferences that will inexorably arise - they only see the system with the most prominent physical signature out in time. If, then, the prominence is the only thing there is, they are maximizing it. Something like this...