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Hmmmm

Yeah, the Nina is weak sauce right now. Going back to June 2023, 21/29 months have been +PNA (CPC). It's surprising because we've had 2 "most negative monthly PDO on record" periods during that time, and the last 15 months have been cool ENSO.. but tracking 500mb all the time, the -PNA tendency has not been the same since the 23-24 Strong Nino -- it was happening all the time before then, now it's not sustaining more than a short period of time. It would have to kind of come out of nowhere to be a -PNA Winter this year, possible, but not as likely as the 2017-2023 period. Precip is definitely not a El Nino STJ right now, but I don't see why we can't have storms track across the Tenn valley and then into the Mid Atlantic this Winter. I think there is a -AO tendency with negative SLP 60-90N over the warm season (strong Summer -> Winter correlation since 2012) this year. Lots of cold H5 across the N. Hemisphere this year too, including the lowest 500mb reading on record for August this last August. 2020-2023 was not cold at H5 in the Northern Hemisphere at all. The strongest leading correlation I've found to Winter cold/snow is preceding year total H5 cold across the N. Hemisphere.

So far it looks like the "nina" is weak sauce so I'm not really expecting classic nina climo dominating door to door. I think other variables like the ao/epo/nao will have more influence on our sensible wx and I wouldn't be surprised if there is split flow at times. Im really liking early ao/nao signs right now. I'm still feeling mediocre about snowfall but that comes with the territory and we're pretty much always northern stream dominant in all enso phases except for ninos. However, get a -2sd ao/nao going and it opens the door for a hybrid storm that passes underneath us. Those can work here but not without anomalous blocking. Its been so long since we've had an extended blocking period that we all expect it to not happen lol but I'm feeling unusually optimistic about it until further notice

First flakes on the way for Sun night for this area. If tomorrow's wave were more potent (or it was a few weeks later) we'd have a nice little snow system.

I don’t insult anyone.

42 at 7:04am, 73 at 1:30pm.

Posted this is the wrong thread so I moved it here lol

Not to derail the thread but why did it get shut down? Drama?

I am totally up for a good ol traditional frontloaded DEC to 1st half of JAN winter. Roundy's tool updated & it looks great 1st 2 weeks of DEC & it all unravels after that. I need more than 2 weeks, lol.

Just starting to rain here. Should be slowly climbing temps tonight.

Nice Greta srly breeze blowing.

I was at that game!

Happy early holidays everyone!

Meanwhile, windier out there tonight than during the HWW from the other night.

A few showers are possible overnight as a warm front moves across the region. The weekend will be unseasonably mild with tomorrow being the warmest day. Highs Tomorrow will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Newark could again approach or reach 70°. A strong cold front will then bring this season's coldest temperatures so far early next week. It could trigger some showers or a thunderstorm Sunday evening or Sunday night. Afterward, lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s during the height of the early-season chill. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +29.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.721 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.5° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

K98D - Onida SD KAGZ - Wagner SD KO61 - Cameron Park CA KVES - Versailles OH TJRV - Ceiba PR

Wright Weather before it.

This probably sums up most of it… I still think the whole issue isn’t about people believing the earth is warming or not (again, not talking causality). I don’t think it’s as much not believing science either. Hysteria, doom, and trying to change people’s behaviors are when the plot was lost. I bet most of the US would be in agreement if it weren’t for those few factors added to the discourse.

And the Clean Air and Water Act amendment of 1970 did a lot to fix it. Why not keep going though? It’s sad, but there is no way that Act passes in the United States today.

If you want blood… we got it!!’

Can we finally get back to what this thread is about? Anything coming down the pipeline in the next few weeks as far as some snow chances?

Because every scientist doesn't agree with all of the climate disaster group think? Many many very well educated scientists have don't agree with current media driven group think.

Maybe but all the condescending bullshit added. You have been doomsdayer for the 20 years I have known you. You are an extremely likeable person in person but you don't post like you speak. By the way an amazing stat.The world has had an incredible reduction in climate caused deaths. The agricultural boom is allowing more people to thrive, more Co2 more agriculture. There are positives and we as humans adapt quickly. I have zero sympathy for people who bult on swamps barrier beaches. The world isn't ending we are evolving with it.

Fight fight fight !!! LFG!

https://kidsanswers.org/why-does-wind-blow/