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I am but due north of Baltimore so I usually flip, while those west of me don’t

06z op Euro looks pretty nice

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GFS and EURO very similar. NW burbs 15-20, locally more; DC mixing but near a foot.

Do you guys see the pattern? The 6z and 18Z always take steps back. Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.

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Zoomed in qpf

I’m mostly curious what info the normies are getting. Family friend that visited last night was lamenting the rapid Apple weather app snow total changes…

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Euro looks a few degrees warmer at the surface than other models.

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day. Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line. Hope that trend holds today.

Pretty wild the warm nose makes it to your neck of the woods. From what I remember you’re northernmost portion of the forum.

It’s crazy, yea it played in La La land too in the 5-7 day range but euro sniffed something out 4 days out, made that dramatic jump and here we are, everything has slowly worked into the euro camp. Once again, the GFS is just a terrible model. The Euro under 5 days is just a beacon of despair around here. If it’s bad, it ain’t going back the other way

You’re gonna have helluva pack

Cut back up north.

Getting that coastal more involved seems a trend this morning. If true not crazy to think someone pulling a two footer out of this

It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in.

Totals WB 6Z EURO

We are at 12-13 inches with all this to the west for the NAM

I’m terrible at analysis but it’s a region wide hold, def sleety in the afternoon Sunday for 95 east

WV panhandle looks to be the spot on the euro...im holding on for dear life at 4pm

4” of fluff total .

I’m he ICON is the worst model, so not worried whatever it shows. Euro & GFS & Euro AI along with their ensembles all show us getting buried. If the southern tier mixes at the end, it would likely be after a foot is on the ground.

Reeks of a CF. Soundings to pinpoint ratios. Start at a good foot att adjust accordingly.

About an inch qpf IMBY before any flip