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I don't even want that.

The woodyard is in Sherborn. Which although is just as bad or worse I am regulated by the state as a farm.

I am surprised they let you cut so much wood in the peoples republic of Southboro. Do you have people protesting you at the end of your driveway?

Cloudy and dreary is the theme today (so far). Not seeing much clearing potential on visible sat either. But we'll see if we can get robust convection later with dewpoints being high.

83F / 77 dew. Feels like 92, even with the cloudy skies. The sun is starting to poke out more, which is just gonna make it worse.

Stein asserting dominance again

Up at Schroon Lake for the week; 48 this morning. Beautiful day on tap.

Some showers are around this morning and will likely increase in coverage later in the day into this evening. We should see some sun returning tomorrow but still a chance of additional showers. Total rain amounts look to be from 0.50" to 1.00" with the higher amounts likely over Western Chester County and into Lancaster County. Tuesday and Wednesday look like great weather with sunny skies and low humidity with temperatures slightly below normal for the middle of August.

Some showers are around this morning and will likely increase in coverage later in the day into this evening. We should see some sun returning tomorrow but still a chance of additional showers. Total rain amounts look to be from 0.50" to 1.00" with the higher amounts likely over Western Chester County and into Lancaster County. Tuesday and Wednesday look like great weather with sunny skies and low humidity with temperatures slightly below normal for the middle of August.

Couple things to watch for is the source region as the STJ will almost be a given. If canadian temp anomalies are more than +20 (with Minneapolis +15 or Syracuse +10) it won’t be good for us. But if the temp anomalies are more moderate, we’ll still be in good shape for some opportunities.

I love a good summer storm (as long as it doesn't knock down trees lol). But in winter I couldn't care less about rain. Id rather miss an entire storm than get rain. The previous 2 winters had hardly any rain (especially in Jan/Feb). I suspect this winter sees more rain and wet snow than the last 2 combined. The last two years were almost all powder. Which i love, I just like to switch it up a bit.

I’m similar. While i enjoy snow the most, I do like a good great lakes cutter bomb with high winds. I also enjoy severe storms in the summer.

Lots of warming to go on the Cfs2 850 anomalies, but it looks like the beginning of the end come early November.

.49” this morning so far. Up to 5.3” for month of August. .

Thank you for the kind words.

Don, That first picture is stunning! Well done!

The ominous flooding rains that were modelled for here didn't pan out, but still added up to 3.67 for August.

He's in south Texas and has been real dry lately. Different perspective from his former residence in N Virginia.

I'll add on a bit here and say that the Arctic is much warmer now than in these events (especially post-2007). Quality of source region air is not going to be the same. If 1877-78 and the Great Nino of 1788-93 had trouble getting it to work, I'm not sure the baseline expectation here should be much different. The sample size here for these extreme Ninos is tiny ofc, so it is unlikely we have sampled the extent of the distribution but if these events (and the 1600s Nino) are any indication, we should probably not discount how fat the right (warm) tail is here.

All's clear for now

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1944) NYC: 95 (2015) LGA: 94 (1944) JFK: 94 (1978) Lows: EWR: 57 (1945) NYC: 56 (1979) LGA: 58 (1979) JFK: 56 (1979) Historical: 1777 - The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum) 1909 - A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel) 1916 - Altapass, NC, was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1946: St. Louis, MO set its 24 hour rainfall record with a deluge of 8.78 inches on this date through the 16th. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1969: During the early evening, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane investigating Hurricane Camille in the Gulf of Mexico found an unbelievably low central pressure of 905 millibars or 26.72 inches of mercury. This information allowed forecasters to warn residents along the coast that Camille would cause damage of unprecedented proportions. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1974: De Pere, WI -- Lightning struck and killed a youth as he was driving a tractor on a family farm three miles west of De Pere. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1978: One foot of snow fell at Yellowstone National Park in northwestern Wyoming. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1980: DCA, first minimum temperature below 70 °F since July 14th a record consecutive number of hot nights. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1980: Massive flooding was reported in Texas along the Cueces and Frio Rivers. Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Allen pushed rivers to levels to as much as 10 feet above flood stage. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981: On this date through the 19th, the center of Tropical Storm Dennis moved slowly through the Florida Straits and onto the lower southwest coast the next morning. Dennis then moved northeastward through southern Florida, emerging into the Atlantic between Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach early on the 18th, taking nearly three days to cross the state. Highest winds occurred mostly in squalls well east of the center. The highest wind gusts reported with Dennis were 55 to 60 mph along the lower southeast coast on the 17th. Two tornadoes were reported in Plantation Key and Haulover Beach as Dennis moved through the Keys and Florida Bay, but no injuries or significant damage resulted. 10 to 20 inches of rain fell south and east of Lake Okeechobee, with amounts of 5 to 10 inches reported along the southeast and east-central coast. West Kendall measured 20.37 inches and amounts of 19 to 20 inches were common through the Homestead/Florida City area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986: Thunderstorms containing devastating winds ripped across sections of eastern South Dakota. Winds gusting to 100 mph uprooted trees and damaged buildings across northern Hanson County. Several farms had all of their barns, silos, garages, and small buildings wiped out from the extreme winds. A powerful thunderstorm rolled across extreme northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa. Winds were estimated at 70 mph across portions of Dixon and Dakota Counties uprooting numerous trees and damaging homes and power lines. Across the Missouri River in Woodbury County, Sioux City received 60 mph winds causing some power outages and scattered damage across town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons. Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI. Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD. Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60 inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992 - One of the most destructive United States hurricanes of record started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16, which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day. 1994: A male tourist drowned in a rip current at Miramar Beach near Destin, FL while saving his daughter. The rip current was caused by swells and strong onshore winds in the wake of Tropical Storm Beryl. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Strong thunderstorm wind gusts of 80 to 100 mph moved through the community of Golden Shores, NV causing one million dollars in damage. Two mobile homes were destroyed and 17 other mobile homes and frame houses were unlivable. Another 117 homes received minor damage. In addition, numerous pontoon boats were either flipped over or destroyed and several windows were broken on homes and cars. The storm snapped several power lines which cut power, in turn cutting the town’s water supply. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)