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Thanks for elaborating. I see. But this begs the question: why is the ice sheet getting smaller in the first place? Isn’t that in itself due to GW?

That NAM run also suggests the EML plume (at least somewhat) will be in play.

If it were ever going to happen, this is the year.

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

Thanks, Don! -I agree with you about the lack of dates and other references on his map, which I mentioned to Charlie in my reply to him. That makes me wonder if he’s hiding something. -So, based on your June and July maps, June-July averaged near normal along the Nepal-Tibet border vs a 1991-2020 base, the warmest 30 year base. Taking that as well as the extreme heat of Aug 10-15 into account, it would seemingly have had to have been much colder than normal Aug 1-9 and Aug 16+ to possibly result in a cooler than normal summer. I have my doubts knowing who we’re dealing with here. -He also has nearly all of Tibet in blue colors. But your June/July maps averaged out appear to average warmer than normal over much of Tibet if I’m interpreting them correctly. Thus, August would have had to have been an overall cold month to have a chance to overcome the warmer than avg June-July.

sell, with violence

12z NAM soundings seem to like Wednesday evening into Thursday morning (21z to 06z). What i mean is they suggest some significant severe if everything came together

I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season

That's pretty typical for the mountains during monsoon season. Some years you can set your watch by them, right after lunch. I've been caught in more than one on my bike, grateful for the helmet. One good thing is that the mountains very rarely have severe-size (1") hail.

I'm sorry, is the ice melt actually accelerating because of GW, or does it only seem that way because as the ice sheet has been getting smaller for 1000s of years, the rate of acceleration increased because the smaller the ice, the more heat it absorbs. A larger piece of ice has a massive volume packed behind a smaller proportional surface area. It needs a lot more heat energy to change from solid to liquid, which takes more time. As it gets smaller, that accelerates.

I love how every few days he takes to social media and declares Iran dead, yet the war carries on and prices stay up. I should have went on X yesterday and told everyone that the Sox kicked ass in the Bronx and have clinched the division.

Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet

4.19 up the road at Cumberland farms

The dates are cropped off his map, which is bad practice at a minimum. June was near normal with an area of cool anomalies in the Nepal/Tibet region. July was mainly warmer than normal. Here are the maps for June and July from Copernicus: June: July: The region saw extreme heat during August 10-15, 2026. Kathmandu reached 32.3C (90.1F) on August 11, setting a daily record. Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also reported that the mercury soared to 38.5C (101.3F) at Janakpur on August 13 and 37.5C (99.5F) at Lahan on August 15. Whether or not this round of heat was critical to destabilizing things remains to be seen. Finally, Nepal has been warming dramatically in recent years. Finally, Nepal has been warming somewhat faster than the climate model projections.

PTC 5 initial advisory coming at 11am.

and alot of model busting on placement of rains etc

looks like Southern CA could get a hurricane.. GFS has been leading on that one.. Euro also trending that way now

we are lucky that Springfield has a petroleum pipeline and terminals to help keep our prices lower than other areas in New England

this winter could suck.. or we could get lucky and with added moisture get some big storms

Chevon's share price up 2+% on the day, will be interesting to see who was buying shares of the majors before this latest Congressionally unauthorized military attack in the Middle East grifters gonna grift

cold enough where it wont be shitty to go outside

Yeah the other day we were at $4.29-4:39 but we also seem to have a bit of a tourist markup between Waterbury I-89 and Stowe.

This is going to be a very annoying week I fear. Lots of rain/storm chances but hard to pinpoint timing

Here's a not-so-novel aspect about ice vs water: when water freezes its volume necessarily expands by 12% to make room for the H20 molecules arranging geometrically into their crystalline position/lattice. That lattice then requires more space in order to achieve this hexagonal configuration among the handshaking molecules. etc... What may or may not be more novel is the application of this basic principle as partial triggering mechanism. If the combination of CC and summer sun have been periodically thawing and refreezing the glacial mass over and over again (decadal), the interstitial integrity of glacial body may have cracked. Fracturing over recent years. Basically we're just describing the glacial destabilization near it's front edge and the pooling of near freezing water and seepage that goes on with the retreating. It's a complex system, but at the end of the day, epistemic awareness ... We can either spend 20 years formulating a high degree confidence polynomial mathematical expression that describes a system to within 99% certainty, proving what we already know, or, we just have to accept that expanding and contracting the ice through these processes will weaken it over time. This both increases calving events, in turn increasing the probability for this to have occurred. Increasing glacial melt --> filling glacial lakes and kettle geological features --> upstream calving then careens forth and there we go