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Still thinking gfs/gefs may be overdoing the cold dome, its a known bias a week out.

Sadly no haha I’ll go for a walk though

I will be interested in the 18z AIGFS....its 12z version gave the deterministic very little support.

Same here. Snowing lightly. An inch more, at best...

Meh...Gefs always follow the leader operational. At least more often than not.

The 18z GEFS is a tick south, and very wintry.

The WxBell Euro AI ensemble snow maps have to be using faulty algos. Here’s proof: From today’s 12Z Euro AI, this is member #38’s 6 hour snow map for hours 270-276 showing a blob of a foot of snow in the Gulf 300 miles from the N Gulf coast meaning an avg of 2”/hour over 6 hours lmao: That right there is proof enough that the snow algos are screwed up bigtime. But fwiw, I’ll also show the temp anomalies for hours 270 and 276 for that member: Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 270: Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 276: Those temp maps show that the coldest it is during hours 270-6 where it has that snow blob is only ~8 BN. The SST there now is ~77F. That means that the air temp during the supposed snow is likely no colder than ~65F. There’s no way it could snow a foot way out in the Gulf while air temps are 65F+.Conclusion: There is a major algo issue with these Euro AI ensemble snow maps. Thus, I’d be very wary about using these snow maps.

Loving it. Two days in a row!! Light but blowing snow down here. Cleaned the walk and car earlier. Both covered again.

A definite shift south from 12z GEFS. Too much cold!

If you flip your phone horizontally you can

Watching the Deep South get the late week storm would really suck…. Hopefully it comes north and isn’t ice.

Yeah, I can see them on the iPad too but not the phone.

Lol, do they have a snow light?

Considering how well the AI models did with the weekend storm systems and in general (their verification scores are much better than their physics based versions), it makes sense to rely on them for the upcoming period. At the synoptic level, it's the best we have. All of that to say, the 18z AIGFS looks great for next weekend. The Euro AIFS was even better at 12z. Long ways to go

I'd imagine we'd wanna keep them higher...

Actually shifted south on both surface and 500mb. I fear we can no longer discount the suppressed scenario if EPS does the same.

31.5, light snow about 0.25", paved surface are quite slick

31.5 light snow, about 0.25"

The AIGFS manages to kick out the feature which tells me the GFS is out to lunch. How the 18z GFS manages to get to the same solution (at the surface) as the 12z Euro is pretty wild. Like two ships passing in the night...they get to the same point but their origins and destinations are not the same! I think this hp situation may take another 36 hours to get handled. Trends for me(regarding the aifs) are what I will be watching.

This explains a lot but raises a new set of questions.

Oh that's right, good point. I didn't take that into account

Moderate snow. 27.7F

18z GEFS trended colder with the heights a little bit lower. We will see what that does to the snowfall projections.

I'm terribly sorry for your loss. Hopefully, you've been able find comfort and heal through found memories of them.

Hilarious - right at the 1 year anniversary of SE NC getting 1-2'+ drifts