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I snatched it off someone on X

Approaching the 0z window. So nice to be back on the tracking winter weather hunt.

It would seriously take an epic system failure from nearly every single piece of guidance (outside of actually cherry picking individual ens members). That won't happen, this isnt 2001.

This would be an overrunning event, as of now there doesn’t appear to be any redevelopment off the coast. Most Miller B storms are from clippers that redeveloped off the Carolinas. The concern is the cold air mass will keep the moisture flow south. Storms follow the path of least resistance. I do believe the cold is overdone and the models are keeping most of the precip south of us

Can you provide link to source url? Thanks! Sent from my SM-S928U using Tapatalk

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org go to single station “seasonal time series”, choose “average temp” and then choose “other” for the period and it will let you manually enter the start and end dates for whatever period you want to measure.

The GFS is picking up on something similar roughly 2 days later. It’s really amped up too soon and cuts up the apps.

Snow hole for Philly as usual. between 0" and 100"

Could see some decent squalls Wednesday evening. We will nickel and dime our way to 44 inches.

It’s still 5-6 days out in a La Niña lol.

I'm going to move this to Banter but I've seen this scenario slide south of my yard plenty of times during the last 5 years or so. Ji is a little further south than me but I'm much more worried about suppression for Northern MD than being to amped. I don't think we're out of the woods yet. Now DC south should be feeling pretty confident. Here's to hoping we all get shallacked with 1' to 2' with temps in the teens.

BZ goes negative, KP will rise. .

“We all we got. We all we need.”

Lol . Thought you were saying I had the time incorrect. So I was like ok, maybe I’m all wrong on how that worked?

I am so very sorry to hear this. While this post was a while ago, he was certainly worthy of continued recognition. His messages here frequented my screen for 10+ years. Wishing you the best.

Smoking cirrus. I always set expectations low. Ground whitening is a win in my book.

The way this happens is if the s/w doesn’t eject out of the SW. if you see that, we can perhaps get shutout in the dc/balt region. If the wave comes out anything like how the euro did at 18z or the ggem, uk, etc., that just about takes a total whiff off the table and there’s way more upside than downside.

@MAG5035 please correct me if I'm mistaken. I could totally be off on a wrong track and have no idea. I'd rather be wrong and learn than keep spouting crap. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

So correct me if I’m wrong, there isn’t arctic air intrusion with this correct? If not what would cause suppression? Strong high pressure to the north right, this would be a miller B setup don’t they usually trend North?

If that happens then the schools here will be closed for two weeks.

@ORH_wxman @dendrite if I wanted to find out how cold this start to winter is compared to other winters on the same date, where would I go?

Kp is through the roof…over 8 Bz has been north though, but it’s been trending toward negative. So we’ll see. Skies are mostly clear here, but I don’t see anything even with a 3s exposure.

Well I do need my neck redone and a shoulder done so there is that bit of news lol .

Difference between what we have beginning to unfold and what occurred in 2013-2014 is the amount of snow we had on the ground. 2013-14 started in early January with 15" otg. Also occurring 3 weeks later, which would argue for better results with climo.

What is a "miss" in your book?