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With DC having recorded its first measurable snowfall(s) in december since 2017? I have a hard time being too disappointed by how this winter has started out.

Lol ya that too! I was thinking last Sunday storm

True.

Yes, just said that a bit ago…waffling up to the day before it seems.

That’s really the only unknown . Models are in agreement overall . Unless one was using the gfs

The cutter? Slam dunk on a 6 ft rim.

When I’m thinking wind.

No need to overthink honestly. Only variable left is if any inverted trough comes more into play and where that ends up impacting.

Ahhh! The infamous bowling ball with transient HP setup. Big dog potential or 40 degree rain with exact same LP track. That’s a go big or go home type setup. With nothing else foreseeable and one of the worst overall patterns in years establishing, I’m here for it…

This looks like it has for days . 1-5” SE to NW.. most in hills especially Berks . Nothing has really changed

I know we’re all beaten down by the last few years and not getting as much snow as we’d like during the frigid pattern, but this relaxation is exactly the time where a shortwave could produce a solid overrunning event. With the trends we’ve seen I almost think we have to produce otherwise we might be in trouble heading into January.

When aren’t you thinking ice ….

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overrunning precip on Monday night and Tuesday will be mainly snow overnight, but could turn to rain in the Laurels and central mtns before morning. As that change would occur, there is a strong possibility that some ZR will occur. We will continue to mention ZR in the wx grids and show a small patch of ice accum in the central mtns late Mon night and early Tues AM. We have 3 more periods to become more confident in the forecast, but may eventually need a wint wx advy for that time frame. Since there is expected to be SN at first and temps hovering in the 30-32F range for much of the CWA late Mon night and early Tues, the changeover to RA could occur without creating dangerous ZR. The highest threat of ice accumulations appears to be around AOO and UNV before sunrise. QPF will be almost nothing on the MD border, but a widespread 0.20" in the nrn half of the CWA. Most of that would be falling when it would be SN. SLRs are very low (<10:1), and accums will be a max of 1-2" with the highest accums in Tioga & Sullivan Cos. A coating (<1") is expected for much of the area before the SN turns to RA. The precip should lift off to the NE and be over around noon Tues. Temps max out in the upper 30s NE and near 50F between AOO and HGR. Gusts will increase Tuesday evening to the teens and 20s, but drop off through the day on Wed as high pressure moves in.

Yes, although last storm I feel like was the easiest forecast ever..

And then 18z, followed by 00z, rinse and repeat.

She takes Xyzal(levocetirizine) and Zepbound(glp-1)

Here is CTP for Monday night/early Tuesday for the Harrisburg area. Monday Night Snow likely before 4am, then rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

the trend west with the ridge axis around the 30th is nice to see... hopefully that continues

sun rose at : 7:16 AM Sun set : 4:32 PM (1632) / 9:15:16 length

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range.

I guess we wait for 12z lol.

Records: Highs: EWR: 64 (2013) NYC: 65 (2013) LGA: 62 (2018) JFK: 59 (2011) Lows: EWR: 0 (1942) NYC: -2 (1871) LGA: -1 (1942) JFK: 12 (2004) Historical: 1892 - Portland, OR, was buried under a record 27.5 inches of snow. (21st-24th) (The Weather Channel) 1929 - An exceptional storm produced snow from the Middle Rio Grande Valley of Texas to southern Arkansas. The storm produced 26 inches of snow at Hillsboro TX, 18 inches at El Dorado AR, and 14 inches at Bossier LA. (21st-22nd) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1942: Richmond Virginia had its earliest 0 °F day or lower minimum temperature in the winter on this date when the minimum was -1 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) 1964 - A great warm surge from the Pacific Ocean across Oregon and northern California brought torrential rains on a deep snow cover resulting in record floods. (David Ludlum) 1967: Four tornadoes swept across Grant, Blackford, Wells, and Adams counties in Indiana, reaching F3 intensity in Grant and Blackford Counties. A tornado causing F4 damage killed 3 people and injured 52 others in Iron County, Missouri.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) An F2 tornado skipped along a 35-mi. path from Lithium, MO, to near Pinckneyville, IL. $5+ million damage at MO’s Perry County Airport where, amazingly, only 1 of 150 workers badly hurt. Near Percy, IL, a woman and baby were carried approx. 400 yards and survived.(Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1968: A record breaking snowstorm pounded portions of South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa through the 22nd. Heavy snows were accompanied by winds gusting over 50 mph producing widespread blowing snow. Drifts up to 10 feet deep across the area stopped traffic. Amounts piled up to 18 inches in southeast South Dakota, over 12 inches in southwest Minnesota, and 6 to 15 inches in northwest Iowa. The 24-hour total from this date through the 22nd of 16.6 inches at Sioux Falls, SD set the December one day snow total record. December snow total records were set at over 40 locations in Minnesota, thanks in part to this storm.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1983: An extremely bitter cold arctic air mass prevailed from the Midwest to the West Coast bringing numerous record low temperatures for the date including: Butte, MT: -43 °F, White Sulphur Springs, MT: -40 °F, Casper, WY: -37 °F, Livingston, MT: -33 °F, Valentine, NE: -32 °F, Boulder, MT: -31 °F, Townsend, MT: -31 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1987 - High winds continued along the eastern slopes of the Rockies. During the morning hours winds gusted to 64 mph at Cheyenne WY, and reached 97 mph near Boulder CO. Gale force winds prevailed across the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Seven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Charleston SC with a reading of 78 degrees. A storm in the northwestern U.S. produced 22 inches of snow at Idaho City ID in two days, and up to two feet of snow at Happy Camp CA. Ski resorts in Idaho reported three to six feet of snow on the ground. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Forty cities in the north central U.S., including thirteen in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Havre and Jordan, MT, tied for honors as the cold spot in the nation with morning lows of 43 degrees below zero, and the temperature remained close to 40 degrees below zero through the daylight hours. Dickinson ND reported a morning low of 33 degrees below zero and a wind chill reading of 86 degrees below zero. The high for the date of 16 degrees below zero at Sioux Falls SD was December record for that location. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Behind the front, a deep upper level low and trough brought brutally cold arctic air from the Rockies to the West Coast. Casper, WY set their all-time record low for December with -41 °F. Locations reporting daily record lows for the date included: Wisdom, MT: -49 °F, West Yellowstone, MT: -46 °F, Lincoln Ranger Station, MT: -42 °F, Stanford, MT: -40 °F, Ahead of the front several locations from the Ohio Valley and East Coast reported record high temperatures for the date including: Tampa, FL: 85 °F, Tallahassee, FL: 80 °F-Tied, Charleston, WV: 74 °F, Cape Hatteras, NC: 73 °F-Tied, Huntington, WV: 72 °F-Tied, Jackson, KY: 71 °F, Elkins, WV: 69 °F-Tied, Boston, MA: 62 °F, Islip, NY: 55 °F and Binghamton, NY: 52 °F-Tied.(Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) Des Moines, IA, reported freezing drizzle with a temperature of -2. McAlester, Oklahoma, reported a thunderstorm with sleet and 1/2 inch hail while at 13. All the result of a shallow, bitterly cold air mass overrun by warm air.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: 60 inches of snow fell in 24 hours at Truckee and Echo Summit, CA as a strong western storm came onshore. These totals were very close to the 24 hour snowfall record for the state of California, which was 67 inches set at Echo Summit on 1/4-5/1982. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1998 - Cold air spread into the southern San Joaquin Valley of California. For the next four nights, temperatures in the agricultural portions of Fresno, Tulare, and Kern counties dropped below 28 degrees for several hours at a time. In some locations, temperatures dipped into the teens. The California citrus industry suffered more than $600 million in damages due to the extreme cold.

6z GFS still supports the idea of a little Tuesday am Christmas Eve Eve snow with showing around 1 inch in the LSV & near 3 near Williamsport.

Definitely some good trends since mid week last week. Each run a little more sw with the boundary . Just too much cold air in SE Canada to get it warm NE of about Philly . I’ve been thinking ice in SNE at least south of 90 with snow CNE

GFS and EURO are worlds apart.. Euro now colder than GFS, GFS torches us on Wednesday 40-45.. Pretty frustrating differences. .GFS mostly misses with the main band, then swings the trough through later Tuesday into Wednesday but it's pretty warm by then..