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2” overnight but still 5 at the stake

We need to develop a clean technology that can scale up quickly enough and at a low enough cost to actually lead to declining emissions over time. So far solar and wind are just able to supplement fossil fuels and not replace them. The renewables are being used for energy addition rather than transition. The one piece of good news in this new IEA report is that oil demand would probably increase much more than only 13% without the deployment of renewables between now and 2050. it’s quite possible that the specific energy source and method which will completely replace fossil fuels still hasn’t been developed yet in a scalable form.

Thanks, @John1122. Great stuff. And JP Estrella looked good last night!

All three 0z global ensembles show the transition to an EPO and/or PNA ridge by very late this month. Operationals don't have it at 0z, but that could easily change. Ensembles are the choice for now. Hopefully, we see further runs over the next 2-3 days which sporadically show major cold out breaks at least heading SE out of Canada along with big highs.

extended looking wet and cutter heavy given the stickiness of patterns and storm tracks over the past few years, i'm gonna take this as a good sign with snow climo about to rapidly improve here over the coming weeks

I was extremely saddened to hear of his passing. I have fond memories of Christmas parties with him and Nancy Aborn when I was a kid. Nice guy.

Wxrisk.com deropnsSto1cacu20hlg60ug8ummhmc981638m4itu004tffi0f5h54auucc · Shared with Public ** BULLSHIT ALERT *** Even though a professional meteorologist issued this …. it is 100% bullshit.. Indeed the very next run of that model used to make this map showed something vastly different with a arctic cold air not advancing nearly that for deep on the East Coast. Like I said in the three week newsletter ....the Thanksgiving long holiday weekend was consists of four days will be it. of transition. conditions are going to turn colder and things are going to start shaping up for what could be a very Act of December. BUT... this sort of massive Arctic outbreak in late November is not supported by the data nor is it supportive of other things such as the MJO

I have been using RONI for La Ninas since they are being defined more these days by how warm the WPAC is vs how cold Niña 3.4 is. So by this newer definition December 2024 was a moderate La Niña.. Plus early snowfall indicator being under or over 4” also works for LGA and EWR. It has worked for 14 out of the last 15 La Ninas events as defined by RONI since 1995-1996. My guess is that this relationship has become so prominent in the last 30 years due to the more frequent repeating weather patterns as the climate has warmed. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt DJF 2025 -1.12 moderate La Nina RONI

Our forecast for the next 5 weeks keeps with the cold in the Commonwealth. We see a majority of the next 35 days featuring high temperatures below average. We also think there's a potential for our final 6 cities in the Snowflake Contest to fall.

Now that's a slant stick. Zonties!

Hey man Happy Birthday hope all is well.

The core of the cold in these smaller geographic footprint Arctic outbreaks are more frequently missing the Northeast.

The 1989 blocking was started by a combination of an early SSWE and a very strong MJO wave that went 7-8-1-2, which lead to the Thanksgiving snowstorm up I-95 and the record cold December….

Is the wind ever going to stop?

The news is comical right now. The bad, false info about SSWEs they are putting out is astonishing. A real disservice honestly. They don’t even talk about the lag effect and are hyping an ice age coming up the end of this month

Thank you for bringing me on topic!

A tornado during nighttime adds another dimension of terror.

lol. It unloaded last night and is still dumping on the hill. Nothing really in the backyard and a few miles away getting smoked.

The EPIC 2009-2010 winter was so good because I got to go with Dad to Charles Town that entire winter. They got a hell of a LOT more snow than Dale City did. I saw drifts so high it was unbelievable, especially the ones along Rt 9!!!!! All I could say was wow wow wow wow the entire way. Just MASSIVE jebwalks in Charles Town, the snow was so damn DEEP it was utterly beyond belief! I had NEVER, EVER personally experienced snow THAT deep! I was beside myself with joy! Some of the drifts were so high, and even the snow depths on a level, as far as I could tell, were downright intimidating! I kept records over there in W. Va., and to this day they bring back incredible memories! How that incredibly deep snow affected me! How fun it was to try and walk in it! How fun it was to watch some of it come down in real time!

You WILL get lucky!!

While the possibility existed, no grand finale of aurora tonight. Ingredients just did not coexist simultaneously to produce a notable show. There were some eye visible periods of reds. But compared to last night, well, it didn’t compare. Still riding the high of the past week. Quite a treat to get slammed by terrestrial and space weather in short succession. Now to settle back into a slumber and wait. Can’t get too greedy.

I don't foresee anything very different from the above, would just add that there may be potential for some heavy lake effect snowfall events and large temperature variations in the Midwest that could include a few episodes of near-record cold there. This makes me wonder if the snowfall anomaly will be highly positive in the upper Midwest trailing southwest and with a secondary maximum over the central Rockies. I think the east coast will be lucky to see one major coastal storm but could have a half dozen moderate snowfall events from redeveloping lows.

Boston, MA _____ 47" NewYork, NY(Central Park) ____ 24" Philadelphia, PA ___ 23" Baltimore, MD ____ 17" Washington, DC __ 13" Albany ___ 62" Hartford, CT __ 50" Providence, RI ___ 38" Worcester, MA ___ 77" Hyannis, MA ____ 28" Burlington, VT __ 87" Portland, ME ____ 70" Concord, NH ____ 67" Above normal snowfall will be mostly confined to some snow belts of Great Lakes, and parts of the upper Midwest, parts of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Storm track will often be across the Ohio valley into northern New England, and infrequently near the east coast, but it won't be as mild a winter as some of the past few. Snow will be generally around 80% of long-term normals for most of the northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

I wonder if the Stratosphere warming forecast is going to stay so strong going into the last week of November, with models tonight taking away the -NAO in the long range. Here's the 1989/2005-analog pattern with weak-negative ENSO and strong -QBO. This is for Nov 28, based on tonights 0z GEFS

Good news and bad news The bad news is, models took away the prolonged/sustained west-based -NAO that it had been showing, the last few runs. The good news is, around the turn of the month they are developing a strong -WPO pattern with +PNA underneath of it -- a Pacific based cold pattern that should put much of the CONUS below average to start off December 0z GEFS mean hr384