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Every single IOD event (negative or positive) in history has weakened in December. It peaks in October/November then weakens in December. This is perfectly normal climo, no matter how strong the event peaks, every one of them has done this

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 WVZ522-523-526-101315- /O.CON.KRLX.BZ.W.0001.251210T1500Z-251211T1500Z/ Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Harman and Snowshoe 1205 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches with locally higher amounts likely. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas, Southeast Randolph, and Southeast Webster Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. Strong winds could cause tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An initial band of snow will move in late this morning into the early afternoon, creating blizzard conditions. There could be a break from blizzard conditions in the afternoon, before blizzard conditions set back in during the late afternoon or early evening hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages. &&

So the 00z euro was weaker (a little more open) with the SPV and further south with it than other runs. To my eyes, it tries to squash the shortwave and it ends up more of an elongated, sheared mess as it reaches the northeast. The better runs have kept the SPV a hair further north with a few closed contours and that shortwave dives under more intact, they do a little fuji, and then we get the good punch of dPVA curling near SNE as the SPV merges in behind it. As Ray said, this is all happening at high speed. But there’s a lot going on in the arctic with these pieces over the next 24hrs before they start to separate themselves and become more clean cut. People get pissed at the models, but it doesn’t take much of a change upstream 96hrs out to throw things out of whack.

Yeah looking very grinchy this year.

Wish I could believe it

lol are we really just tossing the most skilled guidance right now in favor of the GFS and CMC? if the euro showed rain and the GFS showed snow i'm sure that wouldn't happen

We just have to be grateful for any snow we can get when the Pacific Jet is this extreme.

6z Eps

JB agrees with Roundy about a brief break in the cold.

The question for me is would it be worthwhile to come up very early Thursday morning for this upslope event? The one drawback is the strong wind gusts.

JB agress with Paul Roundy in regards to a milder break ahead . He does say right back to cold after that .

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

I love seeing the resorts get crushed early. Played hooky last Thursday to hit Timberline opening day and the conditions were immaculate. Deep winter with flurries all day and great powder. Would love to be up there today in the Blizzard warning (I think).

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs.

we're due for our annual mid winter severe event

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

JB this morning: While the MJO is shown in the charts to be in the null phase. The current way we get there is has a strong vv pulse coming through the Indian Ocean that is associated with phases 3/4. and those are very warm in December. And this looks correct to me. But its coming and going fast and that cold is building in Canada. It collapses and in the 10-15 we are back to a phase 8/1 look. So I would expect a rapid response back the other way after that So I think Paul Roundy has a good idea here and after I got a chance to look, I agree with his assessment

Had 2.8" at home and it had switched to rain, side streets were a mess but the freeway was fine.

Euro was ruined with the latest update a few years ago. The model use to nail storms days out.

I could see a low-end warning if everything broke right.

Did AI do well with the last event or fail miserably? I don’t recall

Peoria looking like the better spot to be for the first wave. Northern IL is trending towards a dog turd duster on the globals.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.