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RAP is pretty impressive. Even starts cranking the LLJ a bit earlier than some of the other guidance.

Not to sound like Kevin but the Euro is a ripper for CT/LI around 6z.

He would meh 1938 hurricane

Some rumbles down this way

"meh lightning hit the house and blew out the outlets in every room but the bathroom was fine".

Radar is jacked

Thanks. Ulster’s now at 17k out of ~100k customers vs Suffolk being at 10k with >6 times the # of customers! Ulster has almost half the outages in the entire state. https://poweroutage.us/area/county/833

Squalls are dumping alot of rain here-looks tropical with the small drops

Pretty lite wind so far, but I’m sure that will change tonight. Nothing more than a few minutes of rain since 6 AM which has been nice.

Tblizz house could get hit by ltg and he’ll meh it

Nasty out .. driving thru Rehoboth and Dewey, SR1 is closed at the South end of Dewey, every side street flooded to some degree.

Impressive tidal piling now on the GSB as the high tide from earlier today is having trouble draining out. I used to live not far from the tide gauge in Lindenhurst located close to Chateau La Mer. While the model did pretty well with this high tide this morning, it missed how much higher the water level is now than the forecast.

Thunder here...that band moving in means business

If there is a saving grace here so far today it is that winds have been more northerly across the area than anything else. That has kept for the most part water from piling in along the coast (especially NJ) any further than it has already. That may change some overnight as the storm turns left overnight and winds become more onshore.

Formed over my head but basically missed it

Im not far from you in Lyndhurst, and the winds have really picked up over the last 30 mins or so, despite there being no rain.

@vortex95 @jbenedet Would be interested to hear how would you counter Ryan and Tomer Burg's claim that this is merely a warm seclusion with no subtropical characteristics? Personally I think this is well on its way to being subtropical. You don't get a burst of convection like that near the center over 25C waters with thicknesses near 580 from upper-level/synoptic forcing alone like Tomer claims. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2103912607010750893 https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2103917149110653089

That is a legit band that’s gonna rip for whoever gets into it.

Impressive rain in this band causing street flooding. Its very heavy rain. Glad it's out.

Just had some insane wind gusts before. Strongest winds so far.

Crazy to look at how long there's been NE winds. Scroll through the obs https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KISP.html

50 at 5:52am. Currently 81.

This band looks interesting if it makes it here…