All Activity

At this point not good

HRRR is like 55-60 for the Boston Metro, around 55 for Kevin and Hartford metro

May as well get it with bare ground

Even MBY might hit 50 Nice sping day

Random vent moment. I’m getting tired of Mets in Charlotte, Greensboro, and Asheville acting like people here are crazy for wanting or expecting snow. Yes, we’re not Buffalo New York but untl a couple years ago, Charlotte never went a year without seeing at least *some* snow. Even more so when you go west and north of there. It is an expectation. The changing climate is obviously not helping but Mets acting like the public is crazy for expecting it is bothering me.

If ever there was a moment for Snow Squall Warning this was it. Opportunity missed.

A bit more deeper on the Jan 13-14 1992 noreaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1992_nor'easter

They do extremely well in moisture laden classical nor’easters and tropical remnant setups. We typically get a system or two like that in spring/early summer and I highly recommend a rain hike out there. You get to experience entering into the cloud deck and it just dumping rain with all the streams being crystal clear. In some ways I remember it more fondly than my snow hikes in Catoctins, WV and MD.

Pessimist.

could legit be our event of the month

There is a lesson here for dumb guys like me. Models can only do so much. .

I’d go back to December in a heartbeat lol. This pattern sucks

We can't even get rain out here anymore. Forget snow, that ship has sailed.

This is very true. BUT, the Euro ain’t even close to the Euro of old. Hard to dispute that. That old Euro was a rock more times than not. I’d take that old Euro back in a hot second.

Model is broken

one of the better 30-45 minutes burst of snow and wind in a long time.

Super Bowl Sunday…that was a nice event. Snowed moderately to heavy all day..great vibe.

yep. timing + burst of heavier + reduced vis + wind. it should be a slam dunk for one. ARR is gusting to 56MPH.

models have been over-amping -epo’s most of the winter thus far, which happens to have downstream consequences of storms not phasing early and cutting. i would be careful to take the default position of “every trough will come east.” it’s important to understand the upstream model biases in play.

Models haven't gotten worse. We just track stuff much further out than we used to. 144 hours used to be utter clown range but now it’s prob akin to like 108-120 from a decade or 15 years ago. And like 96 hours a couple decade ls ago. There’s a lot of threats back then that didn’t even appear until inside 6 days. The Feb 2013 blizzard didn’t show up until about 132-138 hours on the euro (and it was completely by itself for a few runs too)….Feb 2006 didn’t show up until about 108 hours out. A lot of our SWFEs back in the late 2000s/early 2010s didn’t stop trending hard untie inside 36 hours. Also we had far fewer model runs back then so less data to parse creating a veneer of stability.

and I went down to the MA forum to see how they feel about this challenging period, and if I was off my rocker, and it looks like I'm not alone in my thinking as some feel this period needs to be watched for something to pop in near term. I guess it really is "up in the air" right now. hehe

Maybe we can get lucky like the old days and pull of a Feb 7 2021 weenie band Sunday/Monday https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-7-2021 That storm was forecast to be a massive hit in the mid range, then had the rug pulled in the 48-72 hour range came back last second to still be 6-12"

Yes, For sure. That’s the random/luck factor. Back in the 80’s, it was this set up all the time…get worse as we closed in-you could practically guarantee it. Then that tide turned in the 90’s, and really went the opposite way in 2000’s/2010’s, where almost every system trended better as it closed in. And now we back again(and have been for the last 4 years) to the 80’s crap of trending everything worse. As Ray said, it’s gonna change, it always does, just a matter of when.

perfect rush hour timing on this one too

NW Indiana about to get shellacked .