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There’s something wrong with a lot of their 1981-2010 2m climo during the winter months around the Great Lakes. Almost like they’re using Lake Superior water temps in the grids so that there’s always a large, permanent negative 2m anomaly there.

Grok based on the ECMWF seasonal

It’s amazing, everyone getting fun and damaging weather except New England. Another big SVR day from NYC to DE last evening. Unreal.

Why can’t we get that?

SMQ approached their all-time highest September dewpoint yesterday at 77°. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Newark/Liberty TSTM 77 72 84 E5 29.93R Teterboro TSTM 76 73 91 E7 29.94R Caldwell TSTM 76 75 97 NW9 29.96R FOG Somerville LGT RAIN 79 77 94 N3 29.91R FOG Linden CLOUDY 78 72 80 SE8 29.94R Perth Amboy N/A 75 N/A N/A E6G13 N/A Sussex NOT AVBL Andover N/A 79 73 82 E3 29.96R Trenton MOCLDY 84 75 74 CALM 29.92S HX 92 Millville N/A 84 76 76 CALM 29.93F HX 93 Atlantic City PTCLDY 88 75 65 SW9 29.94S HX 97 Wrightstown MOCLDY 84 75 74 S3 29.92R THUNDER HX 92 Toms River PTCLDY 81 75 82 S3 29.94S

Highs: EWR: 105 (1953) NYC: 102 (1953) LGA: 102 (1953) JFK: 93 (1973) Lows: EWR: 49 (2017) NYC: 51 (1886) LGA: 56 (2017) JFK: 53 (1949) Historical: 1775: The Independence Hurricane This savage hurricane raged from North Carolina to Newfoundland. Heavy rains began to fall across the colony on the 29th of August and slowly increased with time. The coast was ravaged from Currituck to Chincoteague. Wharves and storehouses on the waterfront of Norfolk were devastated. Bridges were carried away by the raging waters. At Williamsburg, mill dams broke and corn stalks were blown flat. Winds blew furiously until 10:00 p.m. Many ships were damaged as they were thrown ashore at Norfolk, Hampton, and York. Around twenty-five vessels were run ashore, or "irrecoverable gone." The gun ship H.M.S. Mercury was driven hard aground on Portsmouth Point at 5:00 p.m. on the 2nd. It was stranded in two feet of water for eight days (Shomette). The Liberty became "hopelessly stranded" in Back River, near Hampton. A number of locals boarded her, captured the crew, secured her goods, and set the ship afire in the first outright act of war. A full blockade of Hampton Roads thereafter brought shipping to a halt for three months. At least twenty-five died due to shipwreck.(Ref. The Independence Hurricane) 1882: Possibly the first photograph of a lightning strike was taken on this day by William Jennings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 1887: The U.S. Army Signal Service station in Greenville, SC reported a minimum temperature of 50°F. This observation at Greenville still stands as the record low for the day. Additional stations across the state recorded low temps in the low 50's. 1935 - Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum) 1950 - The temperature at Mecca, CA, soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1950: The temperature at Mecca, CA soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel) (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1953: Boston, Massachusetts had 100 °F for the second time ever in September. Chicago, IL hit 101° for the second day in a row and the tenth of 11 consecutive days with a high temperature at 90° or higher. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1961: Denver, CO picked up 4.2 inches of snow, the earliest measurable snow for the Mile High City. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1982: A wind gust of 121 mph was reported at the Chautauqua County Airport near Jamestown, NY causing an estimated half million dollars in damages to the terminal building, planes, cars and landing instruments. Rainfall totals exceeded two inches in places. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985 1985 - After teasing residents along the Gulf of Mexico for two days, Hurricane Elena finally came ashore at Biloxi MS. The hurricane, packing winds of 127 mph, caused more than a billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Late evening thunderstorms in the Northern Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jordan MT, and a ""hot flash"" at Redig SD. The temperature at Redig rose from 66 degrees at 10 PM to 86 degrees at 11 PM as thunderstorm winds gusted to 36 mph. Nine cities in the Upper Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Olympia WA, 98 degrees at Seattle WA, 105 degrees at Portland OR, and 110 degrees at Medford OR, established records for the month of September. Quillayute WA equalled their September record with an afternoon high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Eight cities in the Gulf Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. Houston TX and Port Arthur TX hit 99 degrees. Late evening thunderstorms, developing ahead of a cold front, produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Dickinson ND, and golf ball size hail in North Dakota and Nebraska. Winds along the cold front itself gusted to 62 mph at Buffalo SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: After teasing the entire Atlantic coast with winds as high as 140 mph, Hurricane Edouard skirted New England without making landfall. Hurricane force winds were recorded on Nantucket and Cape Cod, but wind damage was relatively minor. 1996: Large swells from Hurricane Fran knocked five people out of an 18-foot fishing boat in Jupiter Inlet, FL. The Coast Guard rescued all five people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: An F3 tornado roared into downtown Ladysmith, WI at mid-afternoon, heavily damaging 64 blocks of the business district. Fortunately, it was Labor Day, and most of the stores were closed for the holiday or the toll would have been much worse. The National Weather Service came under fire for not issuing a tornado warning before the storm struck. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Indianapolis, IN was drenched with 7.20 inches of rain on this date for its greatest single day rainfall on record. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2006: Tropical Storm Ernesto dumped 8.93 inches of rain on Norfolk, VA for the city's greatest single day rainfall on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Sep. 1st-2nd) Heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto fell on SE PA. In Schwenksville, a man jumped into an overflowing retention basin to try to rescue his dog. The dog was sucked into and through the outflow pipe and survived; his master drowned. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2008: Northeastern Illinois: In Chicago the thermometer at O'Hare IAP hits 94°F (34.4°C), and Midway tops out at 95°F (35°C), the first such high there in 761 days, and the warmest day of the year Kankakee, New Lennox, Plainfield and Palatine (my home town hit 97°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2002: An F3 tornado destroyed much of the downtown area of Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Overall damage was estimated at $20 million, but there were no fatalities.

Yeah just surpassed 1991 with the largest discrepency between EWR / PHL with PHL having 14 more. EWR does have the 6 89 degree days PHL only 2.

69 / 67 clouds NE flow. Ugly day sun about an hour to 90 min drive in PA and SNJ otherwise socked in the marine layer and some drizzle at times. Flow comes around Thu/Fri and could see some overperforming high Thursday warm / hot spots touch 90 inland otheriwse mid-upper 80s. Clouds and showers Friday keep it into the 80s for most. Onshore flow keeps the long labor day weekend neaer normal and hopefully dry - a california-ish feel. Beyond there warms up a bit and back and forth progressing towards and overall warm / above normal by the mid month period where trough into the WC could push ec ridge.

We were in Ocean City mid August-it was great outside of the lack of waves due to no storms in the Atlantic.

Got multiple tornado warnings and severe warnings but no watch up there.

Landphoon

It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.

.65” overnight.

The record finished very close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast at the top of the range near +1.64°.

UAH warmed in August. Expect similar jumps in other August metrics.

Last night was pretty intense but not as bad as NJ. Lost internet and power restored after an hour or so. Glad I could run the AC until lost power again early this morning and no info on when it will be back on. Pretty sure an outlet blew. Heard it pop. Thought at first TV got fired but plugged it into another outlet and it's fine. I'm done with this stuff.

Optimally, id like to see it develop more west as the morning goes on. That way it increases the chances of a wider hit for us all this evening.

Output looks okay on satelitewx.

the 2AM SPC outlook pulled the 2% TOR risk down into much of our area, and the 30% wind prob into much of the northern parts of our area. CSU-MLP charts keep most of the TOR north of us but does agree with the 30+% wind area in our northern areas for today and keeps that going with even more of our area covered into tomorrow. Let's see if this holds when the 9AM SPC outlook for today comes out. Still many variables to sort out but should be an interesting next 36 hours or so to track!

Disgusting... Can't beg, borrow, or steal a good storm, but we sure can get an ugly, foggy, dreary, misty morning.

@stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?

This post caused an eagle to gain it's wings. It should be a fin day of radar watching. I could really go for some severe. I might cut out of work around 2 and do a lightning chase this afternoon.

That doesn't change the fact that it's initialization of the Pacific is off, so I would still adjust warmer....but that does make a little more sense. Yea, H5 for August at one month lead was good, but that doesn't mean that is always the case every month.

I ended up with .67 of rain last night.