All Activity

Icon trended west with the northern stream but Didnt phase and cut off and slid OTS. Kinda weird look at 500mb though. I thought it looked good about hour 50 and then just Didnt phase.

Made a thread to go over the storm

00z ICON is OTS. Clear skies and cold.

YYZ has blown past the snowiest January there (1999). This was also tops for downtown in a longer period of record as shown in this table of top ten monthly snowfalls. TOP TEN COUNTDOWNS for each month (in cm) TORONTO CITY 1843 to 2025 Rank __ JAN _______ FEB ____ MAR _____ APR _____ MAY _____ OCT _____ NOV ______ DEC _ 10 ___ 1994_75.4__ 1950_70.9__1923_52.1 __ 1943_20.3 __ 1851_ 1.3 ___ 1868_ 5.1 __ 1997_29.0 __ 1970_67.8 _ 09 ___ 1914_76.7__ 1893_73.2__1936_52.8 __ 1885_21.8 __ 1861_ 1.3 ___ 1869_ 5.8 __ 1879_29.5 __ 1864_68.8 _ 08 ___ 1884_79.8__ 2008_74.4__1852_53.6 __ 1932_22.1 __ 1885_ 1.3 ___ 1843_ 6.4 __ 1874_29.7 __ 1951_71.1 _ 07 ___ 1875_82.0__ 1896_75.2__1883_58.7 __ 1901_22.4 __ 1966_ 1.3 ___ 1880_ 6.9 __ 1995_31.2 __ 1850_74.9 _ 06 ___ 1852_85.9__ 1861_75.4__1873_64.0 __ 1852_23.9 __ 1963_ 1.8 ___ 1906_ 7.1 __ 1951_34.0 __ 1855_74.9 _ 05 ___ 1895_90.9__ 1900_77.9__1843_65.3 __ 1975_24.4 __ 1909_ 2.0 ___ 1875_ 9.7 __ 1933_37.3 __ 2000_76.2 _ 04 ___ 1873_99.6__ 1924_82.3__1875_76.2 __ 1966_24.6 __ 1855_ 2.3 ___ 1925_10.7__ 1898_39.6 __ 1944_92.5 _ 03 ___1867_106.7__1868_83.8__1867_84.8 __ 1874_27.9 ___ 1923_ 3.8 ___ 1865_11.4__ 1940_42.2 __ 1876_92.7 _ 02 ___1871_110.7_ 1869_100.8_1876_112.0 __ 1857_32.8 ___ 1907_ 4.1 ___ 1969_12.2__ 1873_49.8 ___ 1859_95.0 _ 01 ___1999_118.4_ 1846_117.1_1870_158.5 __ 1979_37.6 ___ 1875_ 7.9 ___ 1844_30.5__ 1950_57.2 ___ 1872_96.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... Fe 2025 was 13th at 66.9 ...

I guess this means KBOS has an outside shot at 24” if they got into the same rates

Hi all, I think an important part of big east coast snowstorms for us weather nerds is to do a post storm analysis of what we both individually and communally can do differently next time to create a better experience for both ourselves and each other. Additionally, this isn't supposed to be a strictly what went right or what went wrong thread; I think we all know the rough details of how our setup shifted due to interactions with the NS, PV, and 50/50 low. Though, that type of analysis is also more than welcome. Personally, this storm taught me a lot both from analyzing our atmosphere and how mailable it can be alongside allowing myself to set better expectations of storms in the future. Additionally, it reinforced to me that storms, the atmosphere, etc, does not owe us anything, instead it simply just is what it is. My dad compared it to sports; you can analyze it, predict it, watch it happen, but ultimately all of that is independent from what will occur. It's pointless to spend hours trying to will a storm north/south/east/west in a vain attempt to change an outcome that we simply cannot know. In the future I think its just not enjoyable personally to spend so much time tracking a storm like last weeks, at least from so far in the future, maybe within 2-3 days before the event its worthwhile but even then this previous storm showed how things can keep adjusting till the final day. In some ways it did remind me of our legendary Feb 20th bust of last year but less complete; though now between those two events it clear to see it simply is what it is and that is okay. So, in the future to keep both myself and this forum a happier place I'll prob aim to make less frequent, though hopefully higher quality, contributions. Finally, while I spent the last paragraph more or less acting like this storm broke my spirit that's not the case! I thoroughly enjoyed this storm! If anything, it was me trying to express how I can best a storm in the future as I generally find storms to be awesome when they catch me off guard to some extent. For example, last week I got a mini snowstorm that no model had and it will be a highlight of this winter! So I think for me that's what I want to replicate. Of course, I also like just being out in the snow/sleet and taking pictures, watching people deal with it, and seeing a different world. This storm gets points for all three of those as it was really quite neat, though just partially hurt (for me) due to expectations I shouldn't have had. Anyways, here are my favorite pictures from the storm!

I would be happy with half an inch.....but not getting my hopes up.

+4" this afternoon and evening. 21" total. 22-23" depth

This is probably it. The snow is pure air.

Like the 18z GFS looked improved early on and then crapped the bed for no reason, lol

Well there are two main pieces. First one is the northern stream wave currently over baffin bay, this one is supposed to retrograde to the hudson bay (thanks to the GL block) and do a loop-a-loop there before it swings down into the conus. The southern piece is now in the midst of a fast pac jet just west of the aleutians. It’ll become a new GOA low, but a piece of it will break off, enter the conus tomorrow or Wednesday, and become the southern stream s/w that eventually phases with the northern piece. Clear as mud?

ICON is terrible btw

Icon is a complete whiff.

It forgot everything it learned earlier

ICON is horrific

It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart.

ICON is laughably terrible btw

One thing to note is the DGZ is going to be very close to the surface. The difference in solutions run to run is dependent upon where the 850 vort passes when dropping south out of Canada. If the winds veer at 850 from the NW instead of N, NNE then the lift mechanism needed would be the mountains/plateau. Moisture is in place, just need something to lift the parcels.

That's... unfortunate

Icon is following the NAM (I know), west, with our northern stream. Keep playing around with that look, you’ll drop the wave somewhere around Arkansas and instead of your late bloomer, you get a gulf low

Fixed

it's really going to be something to see how a warm nose works its way into this one, but i won't sell mother nature short in the carolinas

He's a famous musician who has to go and perform

I am very happy you are okay. You'll get the windshield fixed, but the most important thing is you are okay.