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look at the GEFS and EPS and Euro AI - strictly going by OPS 5 days out before the next storm even develops and passes is not a good idea

Ensembles are though. We know the ops have been terrible beyond 3-4 days. Even though I do expect this to miss to the north. Nothing is set in stone

Good thing it’s the icon and worth about 1 cent

Icon looks gross for most of SNE. Cold rain until you get north and west or Worcester

Thanks for the clarification. I just saw those maps as well and was a little surprised at those numbers.

Nice to finally have a reason to watch December models. Been awhile.

12z Icon went bad on us. Nothing. Big shift north.

Maybe, but there is pretty much 0 operational support for an OTS solution.

GFS was around 1.3" + for some areas.

Absolutely.

Over 1.5” liquid in the interior. Good luck with that.

Ricky what are you thoughts?

That will crush the interior.

I would say Saturday is thread time. That’s getting well within a goal post window.

Pretty good hit for N WI folks.

The top end range on the "official NWS forecast" graphic is the 75th percentile of the NBM distribution and the low end is the 25th percentile. Point and click is still quite high and possibly/likely overdone and our (LOT CWA) overnight forecaster did some work to rein it in a bit even. Looks like DVN made less adjustments to the initialized data so they have a large area of 12"+. I can say, speaking for my office, that we all strongly dislike the probabilistic winter page but unfortunately we don't have control over what's displayed on it.

So far this month, IAD and DCA have had 0.83 and 0.84 inches of rain - while Tucson got 1.15 and Phoenix 0.79!

Same here verbatim, Its a fast mover as well but it would be some high rates.

Foot plus here we pray

987mb over the cape.

12z ICON not backing down atleast

it's too far to know this storm could whiff to the south

Going to be hard to get all snow south of rt 2 and 84 with the latest trends the past 18 hours. Verbatim that 6z euro wouldn’t be as good south of 84. 2-4” then ice and rain as the mid levels are torched by then . Let’s get that high to start trending to stick around for longer!

Getting some flurries now with a temp of 28 degrees! Just blowing around but nice to see.

You guys made me look at the Gem. Dang, that's a dream.