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I thought the 12z GFS was close with two storms on Jan 7 and Jan 11. Sure enough, the 12z CMC which doesn’t have a progressive bias…brought it. Good look. Big storm.

We just can’t know yet! I think the current monster storm in the Great Lakes needs to unwind before we understand where the pieces will fall. official: Patience required, but I think it’s coming! “Folks”

I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

The '98 ice storm was incredible. I remember driving up from Manchester to visit my parents in the Wolfeboro area on that Saturday. It was the first day it would get above freezing and from their back deck all you heard many trees cracking as the ice softened. The Ice acted like a support structure, until it didn't.

Some morning fog as the warm, moist air as moved over snow-covered landscape.

Big dog at 240 on the cmc

I have been bouncing between 32.5 and 32.9 since i got up 4 hours ago.

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8 dates but its not focusing. It's a bit early yet, yup. For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span. There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing. But that's just the operational GFS Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those. Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA... in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ... The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week. The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm. May need more time.

Gonna be some gnashing of teeth the next week or so I’m afraid. It’s going to be interesting to see this block develop but as the pacific gets squared away, I think we’re going to be working through some table setters. I’m bullish on our odds once we get the PNA to pop though.

Yeah, everything amplifies except for us lol.

This storm sucked for us, but was a big dog for a good part of the country. Miss the days when we were included in the fun.

Winds are absolutely howling

Not sleeping on it. It’s just the cmc at 240.

Another day in the 40s with rain....hope I'm not spoiled enough to have forgotten all about this day in 2048.

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown

Just a little gusty at around 80mph

Look away Kevin, I’m hideous?

Big dog on the cmc. Eps is hinting at this timeframe.

People reporting 6-7” nearby. Hard to know exactly with all the blowing and drifting. Didn’t quite live up to the hype but still a decent storm. .

0z EPS has a very nice look for Jan 9 and lo and behold the GFS just misses a big phasing coastal at that time and the GGEM is about to go full Jan 2016 on our asses at the same time.

Though light, snow kept falling Saturday, even though the main system was already offshore...

Yep as I suggested. First it was the 7th, now 14th, next up 21 then Guaranteed Rockin Feb. Thats simply how it works now.

Good day to watch the barometric pressure - currently way down there at 29.34" and falling slowly. No wind, 49.7 degrees.

Up to 37 with rain and snow eating fog.