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That’s where I’m at too. Good post. I’m definitely curious how they perform in high leverage situations…like Sunday night lol.

That's a fair point. I didn't want to get technical, but I'll restate it as, "the ceiling for AI should be that of current NWP + bias correction." I've mentioned in the past that AI should be used to bias-correct ic/bcs, so I don't disagree. On top of bias-correction, I imagine the analysis datasets already incorporate 'nudging.' This is only done for the ic/bcs prior to initialization though, so you'd still need to do gridded bias correction post-simulation.

please do!

I think someone in the area will get a little snow band get maybe 1-2” won’t really know where till game time.

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy

Well, he was right with the Jan 21-22 storm last year. GFS was the only one showing the snow over central and eastern NC, and then the Euro went NW finally.

Machinery that enhances snow? You mean snow making machines for the slopes?

Precisely, developed to model exactly what's possible in the atmosphere, a skilled forecaster will use fundamental knowledge of meteorology, principles, and historical knowledge to make an educated forecast on how likely "possible" is

So GSP stated in their afternoon disco that snow totals have increased today for NE Georgia and the SW Mountains for tomorrow night into Saturday. That headline sounds familiar from the past couple days before last night. We'll see how it plays out. Currently light snow on Hemphill Bald and Cataloochee.

My window was 23rd-25th. Anything after that I toss to someone else. I might be tilting too much today to be deserving of a storm anyway.

Just reading that makes me feel like I need second hand therapy

From what I've gathered, verification stats have had Euro AI ensemble and EPS as pretty much neck and neck...sometimes the AI has had a slight edge but definitely not the magic bullet that some people imply. The AI has done better with individual storms, especially this hurricane season, but it also got its clock cleaned in others. Just like with every other model. My two cents is there is promise, but the jury is still out on when they are most useful and to what extent. There will always be limitations when the models are mostly data-driven instead of physics based.

I can take it he was completely insufferable in February 2016?

Thanks, I appreciate your response and perspective on this. Going to be interesting to see how it ultimately evolves and plays out over time.

this is worse than it being 80 and raining all winter

While we are waiting on the next epic NAM run, the temp. forecast for today really busted in my area. Was forecast to reach the low 40's at 1PM. Never made it past 35 and is 34 now with winds gusting to 21MPH. Brutal outside today.

I remember this I’ll have to find his 10 rules of southern winters for you

No chance that the park gets under 10 degrees!

Webb is sticking to his guns on a last second northwest move. I guess we’ll see.

Euro

I don't agree with this at all. I think it leads many people off a cliff. People think their intuition regarding loosely defined concepts like "pattern" is superior to supercomputers developed specifically to model exactly what's possible in the atmosphere. It's pure ego.

this post title from after that winter sums up Ji's entire persona quite well

Yeah that would probably be a big ask given the Nina state. I guess what we could hope for is a big storm as that pattern developed and then something else as it reverted back...then take our chances with the gradient.

Nice…that’s even a little more impressive than the clown range Euro prog. I would’ve thought 2023 was a smaller area but it wasn’t (unless it modified a bit before verification). It just moved in and out at lightning speed, lol. Feb 2016 had decent -30 area at 925 but I don’t recall a monster area. It was kind of localized south of Canadian border once it moved in.

Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter"