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98/78 for feels like of 115. Yikes!

Just to clarify to insure appropriate context: -There’s no doubt that currently Nino 3.4 is very warm for so early in the year. But keep in mind that Eliot’s chart showing the current warmth is from a combination of GW and El Nino. On that basis, it’s clear that Nino 3.4 is by a good margin the warmest on record. -But the best way to compare to past years as far as just El Niño component, itself, is to look at the relative anomalies for the same point in the year. Currently, relative 3.4 is ~+1.0. I’ll now compare to other weeklies, which go back to 1982: 09JUN1982 1.0 11JUN1997 0.8 10JUN2015 0.6 14JUN2023 0.4 So, going back to 1982, 2026 is currently near the warmest on record about tied with 1982, which is itself obviously quite notable. To go back further, I need to look at relative monthlies. So, these won’t give as precise a comparison, but they’re still worth mentioning. Currently, the CFS is projecting June of 2026 to be ~+0.95. I’ll now compare to some past June relatives: 1957 6 1.13 1965 6 1.09 1972 6 0.98 So, 2026 is projected to be slightly cooler than 1957/1965 and ~same as 1972. So, the current El Niño strength is by no means out on its own and is instead in the general vicinity of 1982, 1972, 1965, and 1957.

New record for my PWS, 103.3! Still an hour before we peaked yesterday so that could go higher but currently sitting at a “cool” 102.4

Briefly hit 105 IMBY!

Outside this forum, but Raleigh, NC is having a terrible year. They just set their (drought-assisted) 14th record high of the year down there, and their record period goes back to 1887. Ugh.

el dependent? KBTV GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 6/12/2026 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SAT 13| SUN 14| MON 15| TUE 16| WED 17| THU 18| FRI 19|SAT CLIMO N/X 64 86| 63 85| 58 75| 55 75| 55 83| 63 77| 60 75| 56 55 76 TMP 71 79| 71 77| 62 69| 61 69| 63 76| 68 71| 64 69| 61 DPT 56 52| 57 60| 51 46| 48 46| 51 53| 58 57| 54 50| 51 CLD CL PC| PC OV| OV OV| PC PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV PC| PC WND 10 10| 11 13| 10 8| 9 10| 9 18| 19 19| 18 13| 10 P12 13 6| 20 74| 55 9| 25 20| 23 25| 39 61| 44 31| 24 32 31 P24 13| 85| 57| 30| 37| 78| 51| 48 Q12 0 0| 0 3| 1 0| 0 0| 0 0| 1 5| | Q24 0| 3| 1| 0| 0| 4| | T12 2 6| 12 37| 19 3| 7 8| 7 9| 17 19| 17 14| 10 T24 | 12 | 44 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 16

These were great storms. Found clear evidence of a microburst during my walk today. Multiple oaks snapped off about 30' up and all the low level, chest high brush had their leaves flipped inside out and pointing in similar directions. Probably a 1/2 mile square area of coverage.

Looking at Newark and using the expanded records [back to 1843], we see the current record is 86.5F from 2008 & 1984 [excepting the 3 higher years - all of which are based on only a single date's worth of data]. This brings the EWR average up to 86.6F by Monday - incredibly impressive.

Incredible @bluewave! Was it supposed to be this hot? Just an incredible start to summer for the summer lovers. This shows the projected ranks for average high temperatures for the first half of June [using observed values for 1-11 and forecast highs 12-15]. Top 5 heat all over, record heat at Newark, NJ and Concord, NH. It has certainly been a very solid start to the summer season.

The stratosphere has high ozone concentrations. My understanding is that in spring and early summer, intrusions are fairly common in mountain areas due to altitude. It also lowers RH substantially. Maybe a met can chime in with more details and some insight on the mechanics which I would love to understand.

All of next week looks sublime. Near 70 and lots of sun!

Partly cloudy down here in Buda with rain showers around, pleasant 87 degrees BUT with a dewpoint of 79 degrees. UGH! Dewpoints here are beginning to average in the upper 70s most days.

Gulp - (from Elliott at MU) After a mainly clear and mild Saturday night, winds will turn southerly Sunday morning and bring more humid air back into the region. Another cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, interact with the very warm and unstable air mass in place, and spark widespread showers and thunderstorms. The upper-level energy supporting Sunday's front will also be much more vigorous and organized than this afternoon's and on a southwest-to-northeast trajectory across the region. Meanwhile, winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere will generally be westerly, so there will be sufficient, deep-layer directional and speed wind shear for tornado formation. I don't expect a tornado outbreak or major, long-track tornadoes, but a few to several twisters are a real possibility in northern MD, southeastern PA, and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. In addition, the most intense storms will likely contain damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph, quarter-sized hail, frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding. The atmosphere will be sufficiently moist and unstable with temperatures and dewpoints in the 80s and mid-to-upper 60s, respectively, for rapid thunderstorm development and growth. As such, rainfall rates may easily reach 2" per hour in many of the storms, but rainfall amounts will vary greatly from neighborhood-to-neighborhood and county-to-county. They may "average" around 0.50" for the region, but some "jackpot" locations may receive up to 2.0-2.5". Regardless, I expect widespread incidents of downed trees and power lines, roof and vehicle damage, and perhaps worse on Sunday. The drive to-and-from Sunday morning church services should be fine, but the weather will turn downright volatile and dangerous Sunday afternoon between ~2-10 PM. If possible, stay inside during that time and seek shelter in an interior room or basement if a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued. In terms of severe weather, Sunday has the potential to be the worst day of the year up to this point.

We thank you in advance for your sacrifice.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html

98F so far at DCA. Damn.

Yup. Lucked out with that one. Looked like the line was mostly collapsing (with occasional localized pulses), but strengthened just to my west and dropped an unexpected 0.44". Luck of the draw.

Watch coming soon per MCD sounds like Mesoscale Discussion 1107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Areas affected...much of Virginia...parts of West Virginia...Maryland...northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 121757Z - 121900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are expected to develop through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening across MD/VA/NC with strong heating resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates. Modest northwest flow aloft exists into the area, which may aid in steering storms in a southeastward direction. Visible imagery shows a moist air mass across the entire area and extending west across the higher terrain as well, suggesting minimal drying/downslope effects. In the next couple hours, storms may form in the agitated CU area currently seen over northern into northwest VA. Several models depict a possible cluster of storms moving southeastward later today, with a corridor of damaging winds possible. Other storms are likely to develop over WV and southward across the Appalachians. Given the weak northwest winds aloft, any such activity may move into the lower terrain late in the day. Several models suggest any such convection and/or outflows may instigate new development during the later afternoon into much of central VA and perhaps northern NC. ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702 38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880 36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

89/70

40 % Chance of Severe Watch Being Issued SWO from KWNS

Is next week actually going to be BN, or just N?

Shop Davis 90F/73

The drought is about to cross the line into disaster for local farmers with this weekends debacle. I am around 1.80" for the last month after yesterdays trace and one tenth the one before that. If Sunday's chance fails it's over.

92 here currently. Dew Point 70 F Humidity 54 %