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^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's

If this is BTV.. SNE should have a solid next 10. Once past Tuesday https://x.com/tylerjankoski/status/2046001622073971018?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I do 2 bags of this every year. Amazing stuff. Bag says its made from waste distillery grains from Portsmouth NH. So most likely from some brewery up there? Its not cheap but I'll spend the extra money so my dogs aren't rolling around in chemicals...

“Interestingly, the 28 Degree Isotherm today is close to where it was around the same time in 1997. The maximum temperature in the basin is higher this year. The west Pacific downwelling wave is stronger this year back to the west, in response to the bigger westerly wind event this year next to New Guinea. The 28 degree isotherm is starting to fold down across the east Pacific.”

Jonathan Green? Thats some high end clover seed. You should try throwing down some of their Black Beauty grass seed. I hear the chickens go wild for it..

Man EPS is ugly.

Our Nino winter dream pattern arriving for May https://twitter.com/scweather_wx/status/2045950481189474580?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

What a day makes. A crazy snap back from yesterday to today. After a high of 82 yesterday my high today was 49 degrees! Current temp of 47 degrees with 30s coming soon.

Since the 2012 Arctic ice melt low, we've had a lot of cold season -AO with +NAO.. historically the two are much more correlated. I've found that Summer SLP 60-90N precedes the Winter AO state, although it's a reverse correlation, and the NAO decadal continues to be positive. Since 2011, 20/20 months with NAO value >1.11 in DJFM have all been positive!

I’ll gladly take a healthy and very normal spring frost/freeze in exchange for the local ecosystem/ wildlife benefits. (Invasive species to be exact that can’t handle the cold) I know late spring cold sucks after such a nice stretch of wx but it’s very healthy for the local ecosystem to get spring freezes and frost.

Perfect for killing the black flies: Freeze Warning URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 218 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 CTZ005>008-NJZ105>108-NYZ067-068-200230- /O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0002.260421T0400Z-260421T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0002.260421T0400Z-260421T1300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam- 218 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures from the mid 20s to lower 30s expected. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, and Northern New London Counties. In New Jersey, Essex, and Union Counties. In New York, Orange and Putnam Counties. * WHEN...From midnight Monday Night to 9 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

It was 37 before the rain stopped, now it's sunny and 43. Looks like I got .2.

Up at UMass for dinner, sun is out

Extended looks primo with a range of 40-70ish on deck.

Imo the cold this winter(as well as some recent ones) was more a function of the EPO/WPO and the location of the TPV, which allowed for cross Polar flow and cold Arctic air to penetrate further south. The NAO was favorable at key times this winter, but overall fleeting. Just a matter of lucking into a storm chance at the right time, which is always a bit complicated for our region in a Nina. The AO state is always important for cold and snow chances at our latitude- Historically the number one indicator for above avg snow in DC is -AO. Some of this may be shifting however.

Snow has stopped here and the skies have brightened. The evergreens are lightly covered with snow as if in a painting by Bob Ross.

It will be very nice to kill off some of the skeeters that might have gotten going though. Late spring frost and freezes play a vital role in making sure disease carrying insects don’t get too bad in the summer up here in the Midwest/north. Sure some crops may suffer but overall late spring frosts/freezes serve a purpose and are a net + for the local ecosystem. Insects/diseases and Invasive species in particular are no laughing matter in the southern states, all creeping north with time…. As person who spends a great deal of time in forest preserves, I am personally very thankful for this frost/freeze.

That back edge is racing east quick. Hopefully you break out into some sun. Cleared out here the last hour and its beautiful out.

Beautiful out right now. Feels like October.

Large discrepancies between WB 18Z RDPS and 3K NAM for Tues am...

Interesting to note that we are still holding the "south-based +NAO" pattern with -AO, that started in 13/14, 14/15 and has continued... NAO was like +0.60/month this Winter, which was interesting because it was below average temps, with -AO dominating that.

What did you graft? I know you were trying plum before That’s a good initial sign, but there’s stored energy in the scions to initially push growth out the buds. You want to see an inch or two of growth before knowing for sure that the graft took.

Take snowcrete and persistent cold from late Nov into March and extreme cold after Snowcrete and 2.5-3.5 weeks of snow cover and the March 85 one afternoon snd snowing next afternoon and I rank this 3rd/4th since 2000

.10” in the bucket today. Getting my popcorn ready for a 2,000 word Drought Guy post