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Blockbuster??

13.6

16 already. Tonight should be in the single digits here.

So it's a garbage storm for us, got it.

Yes, and no dry dong look for the CTRV... so it's probably wrong

The soundings are quite unstable in the lower to midlevels. If you can localize a little extra lift in that type of sounding, then you can get some surprises that happen quickly.

Nam pretty aggressive in parts of RVA for tomorrow. 1 1/2" of snow in spots?

Agreed. The model signal is there for a localized area to get lit up. A widespread 1-3” but some town gets 6-8”, or more. 00z NAM likes Essex County.

There’s no indication that the Euro native site is using 1981-2010 for its climo base. Is it possible you’re mixing up Tropical Tidbits with the Euro native base? TT does use 1981-2010 as that’s what’s shown on many of their maps. Regarding the Euro native site itself, it refers to the last 20 years for its climo base. So, that means a base of 2006-2025 for the in-house Euro maps. Compared to the 1991-2020 base of WxBell, that means the climo base for the native Euro maps is actually warmer than rather than colder than WB. So, if the only difference between WB and native Euro were the climo base and WB didn’t have algorithm issues, then the WB anomaly maps would actually be a little warmer rather than colder than the native Euro maps. So, that means that the WB cold bias is actually even worse rather than better when considering climo base differences! So, there really is a big problem with WB Euro maps. Thus, if anything, WB Euro Weekly NYC 2m anomalies on that map are >3F too cold…perhaps closer to 4F too cold! And don’t forget that out west, that WB map is 5-10F too cold before considering climo base differences based on what I just showed!@donsutherland1

It's Paddy because in Irish Patrick is spelled Padraig. There are way worse "ethnic slurs" used by the Brits and their collaborators.

Coating to 2”

What about the rest of us?

I still have my American Flyer from childhood. One of these days I’ll get around to refurbishing it—sand down the runners and repaint them, refinish the wood. But for now it remains one of dozens of “I’ll-get-around-to-it-someday” projects on my list.

Think the plastic sled will glide well over the ice topping. WU going with 1-3 tomorrow night. Hoping for a inch...anything more, overachiever. "Occasional snow showers. Low 16F. WSW winds at less than 5 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected."

Happy to dig deeper into this. I always thought actual 2m temps were universal vs. the differing anomaly datasets.

In case you missed the post I made in western subforum, highs in 70s today in coastal Oregon and in chinook zones of Montana, and near 60F in Vancouver and Seattle. The clipper coming southeast tomorrow will not pull any of that in but right now it is above freezing in southern Manitoba so you may get a brief spike in temps Friday afternoon or evening before the arctic cold front arrives. It quickly falls to -30 F (-34 C) as that front passes through northern Manitoba. The source of the cold air is transpolar but more from Greenland than Alaska or Siberia.

All of New England. Much of NH and Maine have been in a bit of a snow drought.

Too much absolutes on social media. Pattern can still go either way after the cold shot. No spiking the ball yet.

I think I found the slant stick ruler to use for this storm?

Nams gone wild, different spots though. 12k gets eastern ct with 4”+ then 3k gets NEmass with 4-8”

Said b4 - this place has gr8 entertainment value. Almost better if there's no real wx happening

Who said there was going to be a torch in Feb? Seems like a straw man.

Lol, thanks for the pro tip! Don't have a toboggan but we have a longer plastic sled I'm gonna try. Also have a couple of the old American Flyers with the metal runners I could sand down and wax up, but I don't think I'd get too far with those. I'm 6'4 and 220 lbs, lol.