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Holy christ enough

15 day warm up is not a thaw. A thaw is like 3-5 days. 15 days is half the month!

Exactly. Its early. I said the same thing and posted some graphics to illustrate. I guess the snow maps provide more support, but they will be constantly posted going forward now, and when they don't look so good...

The two emboldened trends are the essence of why winters continue to suck in the east, and will continue to suck, regardless of how cold or warm it is. We need to get rid of this cool ENSO Pacific regime.

0.01 %

What is happening to this place? The winter melts are starting already?

On the 12z GFS, Western Maine, Vt and NNH looks to cash a bit with the weak SLP going overhead on the 16th, But the BL is torched east of those areas so it looks to be a few 10'ths of QPF there verbatim.

Icon was a nice step in the direction we want for system 2

He can take that part to the banter thread.

All it took was the thread to be unpinned...

I don't have much of a rooting interest - so the close games are good for me lol. But yeah, the Pats definitely didn't look all that strong.

Always has been, even in the more "favorable" scenarios...which is why I never felt it warranted the excitement it elicited from some.

Late January IMO is a simpler setup. All we need is a wave to tap into the cold air and boom. It's also reassuring to see the AN precip anomalies over us and the TN valley; signals that the STJ should be more active.

Yep, nooner GFS looks like a glorified frontal passage w/ little pop. Enough still coming at us that something can sneak up on us. Nickels n dimes though. Better than 60 and sunny.

Man... What a crowd. Things do look pretty crappy for a while, but why people want to just dig in how crappy it looks and how hard it is to get snow over and over and over again. It's like beating a dead horse with a stick. Talk about insanity. Time to take a break. See you guys when there's a real threat!

This. He is more grounded, for example, on his Facebook page. He lets his tortured snow weenie soul vent here. I think maybe it’s therapy for him. I don’t mind it. Easy enough to ignore when it becomes too much. But I get why some get annoyed.

what are the chances this comes back? Percentage wise?

we should call this the panic room

GFS has some digital blue!

That’s been my favorite “window” for a while but was trying not to deb on the threats before. Besides it’s too far out to say anything other than I like the general pattern.

That is how I am rolling as well. Time of day does not help us with the first system.

Plenty to like. Starting with the 500 mb pattern. Confluence to the north and height lines oriented SW to NE, with a flattened SE ridge. Great look for the MA and folks in the SE should pay attention too. Add the +Precip anomalies from mid south-Tennesse Valley into into the MA, and colder than avg temps. I didn't even look at snow maps(no need to) when I made my earlier post about this period. Potential is there, we just need an event or 2 to actually materialize.

Schtick.

We’re a superstitious bunch.