All Activity

Very good point Mark.

Gonna get a 30 deg diurnal today somewhere.

I am waiting to post something positive.....

So reminiscent of the 80’s BS. Most times it was just that…find every way not to snow. And succeed more often than not. 40 years later here we are again.

The 25th on all models(since overnight) looks pretty ripe. Long gradient w/ multiple high pressures and no slp in the Great Lakes!

How about a couple more months of todays and we call it a winter?

for the weekend: Canadian indeed pushes more chips onto the table. Setting up for disappointment in southeast Tenn. It's like after a blown save (good GFS a few days ago) you get a couple baserunners, but it's two outs so I'm not hopeful.

Here's how New York City has fared when it has had less than 8" of seasonal snowfall through January 12th (n=88 cases). The 2025-2026 figure through January 12th is 7.7".

Come in here this morning and had to read several pages of grab ass. A couple is acceptable, even a few, but this is excessive...

You know there’s nothing happening when gfs is rollin and this place is dead.

But as you know, the next 7 to 9 days haven’t played out yet

What the most interesting out of the entire synoptic landscape over the next 7-9 days is that we see this mean trough in an almost ideal spot over the eastern third of the CONUS with multiple shortwaves that dive into that mean trough and we fail to get a single decent QPF event out of it. It’s almost the anti-2015….surgical precision of somehow not producing.

Gfs, classic run summing up the last 4 years....cold, cold, cold only to warm up and rain.

RAP had a little something less than 48 hours out.

I don't think the pattern is like 22-23, the Strong Nino in 23-24 changed it up, as did the Solar Max starting in May 2024. I can tell that we want to go El Nino.. Not surprising that we might transition pretty fast. The US 500mb composite for this Winter so far is exactly like what it is before El Nino the next year. Here is February March

If they are serious about improving from last year and beefing up the offense they really have no choice but to do so. I'm sure Breslow is refining his code to find out which trades he should seek

The 12z GEM deterministic looks even better IMHO. I think the GFS just looks suspiciously dry for the weekend and yes....the PAC connection. I am gonna have to see it to believe it. That said, there should be little disturbances moving along the polar jet. If we can get some interaction w/ the STJ, we would be in business. It won't take much. No idea if the 12z GEM is right, but you can see how quickly things can escalate if the front taps the Gulf.

GFS is clueless outside 7 days. Then it waits for what the Euro shows and steps in line with it like the Euro is its daddy.

I know, It’s crazy..but it’s 100% true. Why was there zero wording? You don’t have to write paragraphs of stuff, but a little explanation would have been appropriate. He did it hoping it would fail. That’s how that guy rolls. Sad but it’s true.

GFS teasing us again with that eastern Pac connection around hour 160

Absolutely!

IDK...I could see them making a few moves, maybe even several.

Don't think I need to touch your's....how prescient of you with regard to your name selection.

There is a better chance I have another very close encounter with a gustnado than the Red Sox doing anything major on the offensive addition front

Wasn't something like this happening at this point 3 years ago? How does this compare to winter 2022-23?