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It really wasn't anything remarkable in terms of sensible weather for my area....maybe 10% above average snowfall with no huge events. Cold was nothing out of the ordinary, either.

Sundays forecast seems subject to change if Walt is correct with more rain.

it was there yesterday/suggestively when I brought it up

I would agree that 2013-14 was a once in a lifetime pattern. It was one of the most, if not the most anomalous, persistent +TNH patterns on record. Extremely unlikely to see such an anomalous +TNH pattern again, especially within 12 years…..

Had some moderate rain earlier. Now sun appearing with a nice stiff breeze.

Haha yes, the tinfoil hat can be worn by many people

My eyes opened up a bit when I checked the llvl moisture. Don't often see dews into the 60's in this type of setup.

Perhaps, but it looks like it cools back down again after day 10. Either way, nothing that exciting/interesting.

Those don't sound like representative readings. Likely in a sheltered valley or "frost hollow" that would violate WMO siting guidelines.

Yep. Worth keeping an eye on is all.

Take a wild, crazy, absolute out-of-left-field guess about what his response may entail...go ahead-go nuts....

Just looked at the 6z GFS...figured you would have certainly said something. Big change from yesterday with that Sunday shortwave. You have adequate shear with steep mid-level lapse rates driven by a strong cold pool with sfc dews in the 60's. Good recipe for hailers and strong downbursts.

my major question is why the world doesn't just slightly adjust back from those events like the 15-16 super nino? is it just "unable" to?

We may not hit 70 today. Cloudy, drizzly 66 at the moment

Great. I can't wait to see daily pics of Powderfreaks friggin snowstick.

Was quite foggy this morning, Starting to take down the garden, Game Cams are out, Going to be in the woods in a couple weeks, From what i can see, Not as many acorns dropping this year like last year.

Yeah. The dewpoints usually aren’t real high and the longer nights allow it to start cooling down fairly early even if it does get really warm during the afternoon.

Standard deviation is just the average distance of each value in a dataset from the dataset’s mean. In a normal (or near normal) distribution (tied to the central limit theorem), then 1, 2, and 3 standard deviations from the mean cover ~68/95/99.7% of the data. So by nature >= 2-3 standard deviations away from the mean implies >=5% chance of occurrence. And IQR is just the middle 50% of the ordered data. Replacing a dataset’s tails with anomalies will skew the mean and increase the standard deviation, but not affect the IQR (or even median). There’s nuances to all of this, but that’s the gist of it.

Tomorrow and Sunday my forecast is low 80s. Also looks warm in the 7 to 10 day range

As long as it's not an all day rain event like this past Sunday. Garage sale rained out. Would like to try again this Sunday.

ensembles starting to show the tropics waking up a bit soon.. but looks like fish food

Upton's forecasted high for KMGJ tomorrow is 81.

Where do you see low 80s

36° with fog this morning, 34° without fog yesterday.

Inverse to the warming summer effect, the airport location move has had a cooling effect in the winter, especially on mins. I'll do a more detailed post at some point about this.