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Chris, Who’s to say that the next 9 seasons won’t jump back somewhat given that 2016-7 through 2024-5 was the lightest 9 year avg on record? Consider this: 1948-9 through 1956-7 averaged only 10.9”, which at the time was the lightest 9 season avg on record and was much lower than the 17.6” of the prior 9 season avg: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 1.8 4.4 1.4 1.9 0.0 T T 10.9 1948-1949 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.4 7.4 4.0 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 1949-1950 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 3.1 T 0.0 0.0 3.4 1950-1951 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.8 0.8 3.0 1.0 0.0 T 0.0 10.2 1951-1952 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 4.8 1.6 T 3.8 T 0.0 T 10.2 1952-1953 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.2 3.1 T 0.0 T 8.3 1953-1954 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.7 T 11.3 T T T 0.0 0.0 18.0 1954-1955 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1955-1956 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 4.5 T 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 1956-1957 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 10.1 1.6 2.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2 The subsequent 9 seasons jumped way up to 25.0”, one of their heaviest 9 season stretches: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 5.1 6.8 7.9 4.9 0.0 T 0.0 25.0 1957-1958 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 12.0 0.3 17.2 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.4 1958-1959 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.9 4.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 4.9 1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3 1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4 ————— Then 1968-9 through 1976-7 attained a new 9 season record low of 10.5”: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5 1968-1969 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.2 2.2 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 1969-1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.8 3.6 3.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 5.2 4.8 0.3 1.4 T 0.0 0.0 11.7 1971-1972 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1 0.3 14.4 T 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.8 1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.0 T 0.1 T T 0.0 0.0 0.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.5 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 16.7 1974-1975 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T 0.1 6.6 5.8 0.3 T 0.0 0.0 12.8 1975-1976 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1976-1977 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.6 9.7 0.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 11.1 That new record low had followed the prior 9 season avg of 26.5”: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.2 6.8 8.4 4.2 0.0 T 0.0 26.5 1959-1960 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T T T 7.2 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.3 1960-1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 8.7 13.6 18.0 T T 0.0 0.0 40.3 1961-1962 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.2 2.0 6.5 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 1962-1963 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.2 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.0 T 0.0 21.4 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 6.4 8.9 11.7 6.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 33.6 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 9.1 1.9 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 21.3 6.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 16.1 1.3 19.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.1 1967-1968 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.3 2.8 2.4 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 And the new record low 9 season 1968-9 through 1976-7 avg of 10.5” was followed by an 18.8” 9 season mean for 1977-8 through 1985-6: Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 6.7 8.7 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 18.8 1977-1978 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.3 3.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.7 1978-1979 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 T 4.0 30.6 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.7 1979-1980 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 T 8.6 5.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1 1980-1981 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.2 T T 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 1.7 15.3 5.3 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 22.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 T 21.0 0.0 T 0.0 0.0 27.6 1983-1984 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 T 6.5 T 1.8 T 0.0 0.0 8.6 1984-1985 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 10.0 T T T 0.0 0.0 10.3 1985-1986 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.8 12.9 T T 0.0 0.0 15.4 ————— So, in summary: 1939-40 through 1947-8: 17.6” 1948-9 through 1956-7: 10.9” 1957-8 through 1965-6: 25.0” 1959-60 through 1967-8: 26.5” 1968-9 through 1976-7: 10.5” 1977-8 through 1985-6: 18.8” 2007-8 through 2015-6: 15.9” 2016-7 through 2024-5: 7.8” 2025-6 through 2033-4: ??? Maybe 2025-6 through 2033-4 will jump back up a nice amount. It wouldn’t at all surprise me if it were to jump back up to ~12-15”? And then perhaps it would drop back down. Obviously nobody knows.

I've had a few close calls in the low 50s but never actually below 50. I am not that far from the water either, places that are a few miles south of me more in the central part of the island away from the Sound and the ocean get a little bit cooler than me. Plus my thermometer is like 20 feet up and not the best location unfortunately. All that combines for elevated temps.

I've seen good reports of color, especially above 1500'. I'm hiking the MD section of the Appalachian trail next weekend. Color should be good in higher elevation. It will look green in the valley.

Nah we change things a bit mid month and beyond

64.8 is the monthly normal. 65.5 and +6.4 is just for that particular day.

49 (barely) IMBY this morning.

What about if it’s a 22-23 pattern where there’s never any real chance?

I’m planning to go leaf chasing/hiking to spruce knob wv tomorrow, anyone know how the colors are out there?

39.2, first 30s! For real, 1st 40s? I know our locations differ, but I've had probably 8-10 40s already, and low 40s a few times. That is wild since you aren't really in a city. Tony was 55 lol.

Using 9/30 as an example...If normal for Sept is 64.8, and 9/30 average temp was 65.5, how does that = 6.4 AN? this is data for Hartford if it matters

Eastern one now a pumpkin.

Statistically pretty unlikely since the warm spots like Newark haven’t stayed under 70° from 10-8 to 10-18 which is the end of the GFS run since 2002. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ max temp 10-8 to 10-18 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-10-18 78 0 2023-10-18 74 0 2022-10-18 71 0 2021-10-18 84 0 2020-10-18 77 0 2019-10-18 75 0 2018-10-18 81 0 2017-10-18 83 0 2016-10-18 85 0 2015-10-18 81 0 2014-10-18 79 0 2013-10-18 75 0 2012-10-18 73 0 2011-10-18 88 0 2010-10-18 79 0 2009-10-18 73 0 2008-10-18 79 0 2007-10-18 89 0 2006-10-18 80 0 2005-10-18 75 0 2004-10-18 76 0 2003-10-18 78 0 2002-10-18 65 0

38.1 for the low this morning. Very misty. The temp rose for several hours after midnight, otherwise we would have had our first frost.

Low of 46. Beautiful days.

Looks dry and benign right thru end of month

much different than the Euro which surges more warmth into the east coast 10/10 - beyond with a strong ridge into MS valley. Maybe a middle ground near / above normal is a good compromise at this point.

6Z GFS says the last day over 70 is this Tuesday for the duration of the run.

We are going be close to 15 degrees above normal highs this weekend.

Another over the top warm up this weekend with the record 90° heat forecast for MSP while we stay in the 80s.

Right, I don't either, I consider an inch or more a good dousing. I kind of overstated due to enthusiasm and all the dryness this past summer.

Pretty crazy how closely 2015 matches to this season

Even last night was only 45. By the time I left the house at 5:50 there was already a breeze and temp rising.

Some of our colder valley locations again saw low temperatures this morning in the upper 30's with most other spots remaining in the lower 40's. A beautiful stretch of weather through Tuesday with temperatures near normal for early October today with highs in the upper 60's to near 70 degrees. We warm up to above normal tomorrow through Tuesday. Shower chances arrive on Tuesday night with a cold front which will turn us sharply cooler again by later next week.

Yeah I don’t consider .25” a good dousing. I guess it’s subjective.