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That stuff in Virginia and Maryland might clip us after watching a long radar loop on College of Dupage. It's going to be a close call.

We have picked up another 0.14" since midnight bringing our 3-day rain total here in East Nantmeal to 0.77" of much needed rain. Looking downstream more rain is on the way later this morning. The NWS has a forecast potential of another 0.50" to 1.00" by later tonight. We get a break tomorrow before rain chances increase again by Saturday night. Temperatures look to remain above normal levels for the end of September, but we start to cool down by early next week and we will see highs by Wednesday in the 60's with 40's returning for morning lows by the middle of next week as we start Red October! Go Phillies!!

We have picked up another 0.14" since midnight bringing our 3-day rain total here in East Nantmeal to 0.77" of much needed rain. Looking downstream more rain is on the way later this morning. The NWS has a forecast potential of another 0.50" to 1.00" by later tonight. We get a break tomorrow before rain chances increase again by Saturday night. Temperatures look to remain above normal levels for the end of September, but we start to cool down by early next week and we will see highs by Wednesday in the 60's with 40's returning for morning lows by the middle of next week as we start Red October! Go Phillies!!

Really thinking the odds of this affecting the SE coast are increasing. A weaker Humberto/further separation increases risk further. If Humberto wasn’t there this is going into coast. Still a lot on the table and until a center forms there isn’t a clear solution but the trend on ensembles is clear and we’re seeing ops follow suite. Everyone from northern Florida to the OBX needs to be alert

Pouring in norton

Torrential here for last 45 minutes…

The new RRFS A has been maintaining that trajectory for days now with the heaviest focused to our NW. It’s still considered an experimental forecast so doesn’t really get included in the mix during forecast discussions. It could be that the warmer conditions with the record 70° lows resulted in the front stalling a little more to the NW of the very wet models like the Canadian suite focusing the max right through our area. So the stalled front would up further north than the wetter models.

It can snow plenty here in a warm overall winter. We don’t need end to end frigid conditions. We just need the Pacific pattern to cooperate in windows of a few weeks to allow for good storm tracks while there’s half decent cold to work with. We don’t benefit from the storm track types that can still dump plenty for I-90 or even I-84.

Well……it rained a little bit.

Days and days

Up to a whopping 0.14 here after this last batch of scattered rain showers moved through.

Exciting times ahead.

The trajectory of the precip to our west and southwest looks like it will take it northwest of our area. I hope something else blossoms that could give everyone a nice soaking as opposed to this ultra scrattered popcorn crap.

Comes up where?? The CTRV?

This is why I reference my forecasts....if you are going to make blanket statements about my perceptions that are inconsistent with what I am forecasting, then perhaps you should read them. I am favoring +WPO, dude...and explicitly mentioned that this caps seasonal snowfall potential. The hope is that it's a more subdued +WPO as it was in 2017-2018, which is manageable and not prohibitive to heavier snows for at least the northeast.

I'm not claiming that you specifically have a question about my forecasts per se, but when you feel compelled to explain to me how difficult it has been to sustain "wall to wall DJF -EPO -WPO patterns since 2018-2019", the tacit inference is that you feel as though I am under the impression that this will happen in 2025-2026.

Tis the perfect day for the English tradition perfected by William the Orange at the start of the 18th century of a tumbler of gin Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Low of 68, .09” of rain, and a lush looking lawn.

With the persistent onshore/easterly wind I had a few tenths of “below the radar” precip from evening through early morning hours yesterday before the main precip moved in. Fog/mist turned to mist/light rain for an all day wet vibe. This was the first solid consecutive wet days in a while.

Why do you think I am talking about your forecasts? If I had a question for you then I would ask you directly. The negative modes of those indices weren’t strong enough last winter to prevent the storm tracks on the wettest .20+ precipitation days from Philly to Boston from cutting through the Eastern Great Lakes. Your perception of those modes were from a colder era when they were more effective at driving colder storm tracks to our south when the Pacific Jet was weaker. For the general pattern since 18-19 to change we would need to see the Pacific Jet relax and stop producing the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Hard to believe our last effective wide scale relaxation of this pattern was in January 2022 with the great MJO 8 pattern.

Have maybe 0.1” here. This may get the total up to 0.5”.

It won't develop until it gets into the Bahamas

We picked up .47 since midnight. Grass is already starting to green up a little. Picked up 1.06” for the week so far.

They're getting smoked. Acushnet area too

Moderate to heavy rain in Marysville currently with .22 since midnight. Total since yesterday is .32 so far.