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Good discussion with DT and others.

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

GFS doesn’t have the second storm bc it drops off the energy in the SW and it becomes completely cutoff. I have questions for the model…

Nice little storm

US National Weather Service State College Unseasonably mild with occasional rain today Rain ends late tonight; returns to start the weekend Windy and colder with snow showers on Sunday Slight warmup with no precipitation early next week

GFS with a nice run this morning. looks pretty decent

At least you don't have much to lose.

Cad + east coast pattern, rough

I’ll cash out the 6z GFS for next Thursday! 2-4” for the northern half of central NC and cold

I’ll lose my mind if this is a miller b and nyc gets a foot

GFS is really really really trying for next week….

6z Gfs hasn't given up on 15th/17th. Not huge but snow.

Would be nice for I95, but still to far out, we have a current rain storm coming in this weekend. Than a short live cold spell with snow shower before temps rise into the 40s. This according ti the 10 day weather forecast for Felton Delaware

6z GFS next Thursday

Large increase in 0-2000m ocean heat content last year. NOAA data through mid-year also shows a large increase.

Big uns on guidance last night. We pray.

6z GFS phases late to give light snow to NC/VA next Thursday

End of 6z ICON looks like it could be close to phasing.

Both 0z Euro and GFS liked the period around the 19th

For the mountains. Both Euro and GEFS snowfall means ticked up for most in Carolina’s with the overnight suite. Both systems have potential here and we’re seeing solid miller A potential from both. GFS evolution was wonky to me, digging energy into the SW and holding it back. Would be great for overrunning but everything seems to trend more progressive with time. Euro is amped and a legit miller A with the second storm. First storm is soooo close across guidance just not quite there on anything

Same here. And there was about a hundred or so pecking at the grass on a baseball field at a local high school.

What an interesting pattern the 00z GFS showed up to 240hrs @ 10mb The 500mb maps were also very interesting, of course one run but don't think I have seen tropo/strato connection in this way with multiple 500mb lobes developing especially one still sitting in the Beaufort Sea/ CAA before. This would probably be considered a minor wave 2 event but not a whole lot of warming taking place which is something that is lacking in completely taking down the SPV.

Euro AI likes the 18th. Big 'un

Euro was a beaut.

A week of warm weather but winter is back on next week.