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Personally, I look at both the HRRR and NAM Nest as my go-to CAMs. The 3 Hi-Res Windows are lower on my list. The HRRR and NAM Nest both have their strengths and weaknesses. The HRRR has a big advantage in running hourly, and there are things it does to create a more accurate starting point (a sophisticated assimilation of radar data, heavy usage of surface jobs....) The NAM Nest hasn't been updated in 8 years. The HRRR hasn't had a recent update but was last updated 4 years ago. In terms of biases with rainfall, NAM Nest tends to run wet, but the HRRR sometimes runs dry - might be microphysics, but tough to confirm. And the HRRR is very sensitive to the hourly updates, so its solutions bounce around a lot. The NAM Nest tends to be too cool with sfc temps, but it handles low-level inversions way better than the HRRR due to a better PBL scheme. And as noted earlier, the NAM Nest tends to overdo orographic precip due to a very sharp topography field that was put in to enhance winds over terrain. That's just a few things off of the top of my head.

You'd have to be pretty young to have experienced and recollect nothing good. I'd say the last true winter blast of a season was 2014-2015. I guess if there are 15 year olds posting they'd be too young to remember.

I live in NYC, it's the opposite of charmed. Charmed living starts north of 287, although traffic is getting worse there I hear We can barely muster up any excitement for tomorrow's system since rain wise it looks to have a shaft zone right through the tristate. Not much to talk about!

Looking very quiet through mid November.

all your poor kids will never see a winter like we had growing up. sad

My kid don't want to get up at any time of the day

If youv'e had bad luck buying one sled get two and see how it goes...........

Ah.....the good old days when interesting weather happened to us......when a storm like tomorrow is just a nothing-burger instead of the only hope for something a bit more interesting than the absolutely boring string of wearher Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

Because it's harder to wake up when it's dark for most people I'd imagine, for me at least, and I think most people would rather see some light when leaving for work in the morning.

Well then you lead a charmed life. Enjoy it and for the love of god, move on from the constant whining about the freaking sunset already.

Thank God for that. Leaving the house at 6:30 to darkness is not fun.

One hell of a blow up going on

I’ll take bids from others as well. I can corner the beer market on this board

I’ll buy ya a half barrel if you hold off on that sled dammit…

melissa started to get her act together on infrared..

Winter is still on. I didn’t buy a new sled yet. And if I don’t, you guys owe me a beer cuz big winters happen when I’m sledless.

Currently 37 with fog/drizzle and a lot of wind in Wolf. I've had a few gusts to 30 in the past hour. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Of course not…he always sees things that really aren’t there…he’s afflicted and tormented with visions, and congers up prognostications that the Vatican calls…well, “Unholy.”

I have two in fact I am the boss, you get up when I tell you lol Or at least my wife does. I can't think of a more depressing thing than leaving work and it's already nighttime.

if you had kids, you would understand. what you’re really mad at is shorter days… it’s like yelling at a cloud. Move south

Reading his posts tell me that it took him at least 7 times to accomplish that.

I don’t see a torch next week.

been doing this all day

In December near the coast especially, you want snow cover and a cold air source in Canada for any storm to tap into. In Jan and Feb it isn’t as important, but the warm waters nearby make it very easy to ruin any setup with any wind coming off them. Mild Pacific garbage won’t do it for I-95 south of Boston and even there it’s tough.