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Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive.

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/205-2026/PNSLWX/c88b4b76421e8f7e48bd910a1aa7a19e Didnt see this posted yet

-H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter.

Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.

The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder. Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.

Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.

You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps

Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?

Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO.

I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat 2026 4 0.64 2026 5 0.70 2026 6 0.67 2023 4 0.94 2023 5 1.07 2023 6 1.27 2018 4 0.37 2018 5 0.33 2018 6 0.25 2015 4 0.29 2015 5 0.41 2015 6 0.40 2009 4 0.09 2009 5 0.11 2009 6 0.36 PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 - https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data

73.4 for the high today. Incredible

Yes. Another low in the 50s tonight, nice

vice versa

Shit, I can't compete with that...should have done my homework-

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?

My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:

@Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting .30 within the outcome? @bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality? TIA.

Sioux City ASOS site hit 83 degree dewpoint earlier this evening, and hit 119 for heat index. Tremendous pool of 80+ degree dews from southwest MN down into northeastern KS.

That threat will move 300 miles north or west of us by then. Mark my words. Nobody can convince me otherwise

Possibly. However we know what would happen in the playoffs with him so it wouldn't really matter, lol

I found some of my old research and updated it for the last few years (2021-2025). It looks like the formulas still work for predicting precipitation locally in El Nino / La Nina seasonally, and even month by month. El Nino DJF precip locally can be predicted at very high confidence (90%, within 0.8" of output, 75% odds of within 0.59") using the Sept high, Nov precipitation, and wet days in July-Sept (+1/2 of wet Jun days). Formula is: =(B13*-0.04239*B13)-(0.30999*B13*C13)-(0.018527*B13*D13)+(0.01853*C13*C13)-(0.2244*C13*D13)+(0.00347*D13*D13)+(7.277*B13)+(28.465*C13)+(1.6066*D13)-(311.76) Where B is Sept high, C is Nov precip, D is Wet days. DJF highs in El Ninos locally tend to match DJF ONI, July-Jun annual sunspots, and DJF ONIp, within ~2.3F or so 90% of years. Here is 2023-24 as an example: I never was able to find an El Nino at that solar level / trajectory - 129.6 in the rising part of the cycle. The peak was 149.2 for 2024-25 (Jul-Jun). This is the only El Nino since 1931 one year from rising to the peak. 1957, 1968, 1979 are at the peak, not before. Dec El ONI Sun ONIp DJF Tmax 1939 1.0 125.9 -1.0 49.8 1957 1.8 281.6 -0.2 50.5 1972 1.8 75.4 -0.7 45.2 1982 2.2 129.2 -0.1 47.9 1994 1.0 36.9 0.1 54.4 Blend 1.6 129.8 -0.4 49.6 2023 1.9 129.6 -0.5 51.4 For 2026-27, there is probably no real way to use my method given what is forecast (ONI at +3.0C to +3.5C in DJF). But you can use solar (60-80?) and ONIp as anchors. Dec El ONI Sun ONIp DJF Tmax 1965 1.4 37.1 -0.6 44.4 1972 1.8 75.4 -0.7 45.2 1982 2.2 129.2 -0.1 47.9 1997 2.2 54.9 -0.5 47.1 2015 2.5 55.8 0.6 51.4 2023 1.9 129.6 -0.5 51.4 Blend 2.0 80.3 -0.3 47.9 2026 3.1 75 -0.4 47 Solar was 106.2 sunspots/month from July 2025-June 2026, and declining. Similar initial positions/trends (roughly: 86-126) were 1939-40 (126), 1950-51 (103), 1960-61 (117), 1971-72 (101), 1982-83 (129), 1992-93 (103), 2002-03 (131), 2014-15 (91). The following years imply ~72 sunspots/month for July 2026-Jun 2027. If you use just the solar cycle positioning/tendency, you can see 1950-51 and 2002-03 as a blend is very similar to last year for temps -

Os walk off. Need more of that shit.

These patterns deliver particularly photogenic mcs over the lake