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Yah, I know you hate the snow maps, but they stink for the upcoming work week. No support for a big storm yet....

Yeah bark is worse than bite here.

They are stoked for the Cape storm, not the one on the 15th fwiw

As I mentioned earlier with a complex set up like this one ens will take some time to catch up if the op is onto the right idea. Maybe by tomorrow night or Monday. We seen ensembles show 6”+ for a day 5 storm before and it resulted in nothing. Last year prime example.

LOL

18z EURO and GFS one in the same it appears. Both are decent

Decent 18z Euro run for the 15th chance.

by tuesday we should have consensus!

They're pretty optimistic in the Southern forum.

Just don't let whatever happens stall south......that would just suck.

Still not much to be excited about at the surface on the 18z Eps. Need to see some improvement over the next few model cycles. GEFS too.

Also didn’t break 50 today. Yesterday was 53. Was supposed to be the warmest days in the 60s in this January thaw.

Nice. Thats the one Virgin Island I have not been to. I like Tortola.

That's quite a mickey mouse pattern depicted on the models...

Heaviest rain seems to have moved out already

Yeah, you better get the disappointment out now so you're not disappointed later.

I'm in the WWA and sitting at 33.6, down from 47.

APATT

The yellows and oranges are all brightbanding. Maybe some paws made it down to the sfc.

FWIW, the 18z GEFS looks good!

You can say that again. This close!

18Z Euro is real close. Been incrementally moving in the right direction at h5. Compare this run to 0z.

And over 4.5 of that is just from midnight to around 2 when it started to clear. Lots of flash flooding.

Looked like a clear improvement to me. Several runs in a row now. But the GFS-AI went the opposite direction. With the ICON also worse, it's kind of a wash. Theoretical high end potential but so many failure modes.

positive vibes are not allowed? Nor negative? lol