All Activity

It's been active. Just active in the Atlantic.

It is finally over. Residual fog this AM but the birds are back chirping away.

Next frame is even better i would take that

6z gfs

Globalism can refer to cultural, political or economic exchange. Our over-reliance on Asia has imported a large number of invasive species.

When both the Euro and Gfs have something.. we watch.. so far out though

That looks alot like Sandy

Yes, data adjustment is needed and successful. Here is a map of Coatesville 1SW COOP station locations from NCDC, illustrating the large range in station local site conditions for this one COOP station. The COOP data was collected by volunteers whose lives changed with time, resulting in station changes. Also attached a satellite views showing the complexity of local land use. Coatesville is a steel town. The link below provides information on the steel mill, the oldest in the US and the largest at the end of World War II. The Coatesville 1SW COOP station was active from 1894 to 1982. The stations are numbered starting with site #1, the most recent which was active from 1948 to 1982. Site #6 is the oldest. Pictures of sites 1 and 2 are shown a couple of posts above. You aren't going to get an accurate picture of Chester County's climate if you assume that all of these stations are exactly the same. Fortunately we have thousands of weather stations in the US. Which makes it easy to separate weather and station moves using well established procedures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lukens_Steel_Company

Low of 50. Some nice crisp fall nights ahead.

Euro looks solid

GFS and the Euro now have something late month

We don't have any Chesco stations that haven't had major changes. But one station, Phoenixville, provides consistent data for 1890-1926 vs present. Phoenixville has had moves and station changes, but has remained on the local water property site since 1893. This site, with a small reservoir, has not seen any significant development during the period of station operation. There have been major station changes at Phoenixville however, which we have documented previously on this site. The station ran spuriously warm between 1927 and 1949, particularly on summer afternoons; and, ran cool in the 1990s. There is also a fair bit of missing data Charts below: 1) Phoenixville and NOAA Chesco showing good agreement on the roughly 4F Chesco temperature rise between the 1890s and present. 2) Adjusted and unadjusted temperatures for Phoenixville showing the roughly 4F warming in both the adjusted and unadjusted data, but with large adjustments for 1927-49 and the 1990s as discussed above, and 3) Annual 90F days for Phoenixville and other stations showing a large spurious spike at Phoenixville in the 1927-48 period, illustrating the station warmth during this period. We've been going over the Chester County data in detail for over a year. Well documented in the Chester County thread. I would be glad to answer any questions if you are interested. The raw data in Chester County paints a very consistent picture of warming that is captured accurately by NOAA. The fact that Paul (Chescowx) can't find warming tells us more about himself than Chester County's weather.

Uh oh. raindance's post got the most likes in this thread. Be on alert for the opposite to happen.

Looks like Halloween is going to be cool/cold this year. In the 2000s, we've had some very warm Halloweens

Are there not any long term, reliable stations in the area that haven't moved or seen major changes around them?

A warm pool around the Aleutians makes sense. All the seasonal models are unanimously showing an Aleutian ridge this winter. It fits a normal canonical La Niña Aleutian ridge regime. They are also all maintaining a -PDO, strength TBD

Ended up with about a third of an inch. Any rain is good rain right now

Picked up 0.50 storm total peak wind gusts around 40 mph a few weak trees came down here and there. Keep an eye out for one last gasp of the tropics months end.

Looks like 0.76" for the event. Went from 90 and sun in CA a week ago to low 50s and sheet rain. Nice to have the pattern change.

All jokes aside that would be an absolute disaster!!!

Tony Pann posted something… interesting “No Hurricanes have made landfall in the US so far this season. And only one Tropical Storm (Chantal). Over the last 20 years, there have been 5 years with no Hurricanes making landfall: 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2015. The average winter snowfall for Baltimore in the following winter: 35" Obviously this could be correlation and not causation but it’s an interesting factoid.

What an insane storm.