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Still about 4 days out from depicted start of snow. That's an eternity when you have to deal with a northern stream feature interacting with a sw feature and a pv. Really need that sw to phase in better with the ns dropping down, and we know how that always seems to go. Did notice that HP was weaker and further north as the system rolled east on the euro. That's really what 'saved' us, and offset the weaker phasing and allowed the precip to still come further north. No feeling in my gut on this one. I can absolutely see the phasing falling apart leading to a 12zgfs-esque solution. All it takes would be the ns to speed up and the sw to hang back....that seems to be a common scenario over the last several winters, (failed phasing with a quicker ns). Still, the option for something bigger is definitely on the table too, especially with the temps during the snowfall leading to high ratios. I think one fail option we can take off the table...wtod Either way, this type of system is fun to track on the modeling.

Next window of opportunity?

Yea ice storms are garbage. Zero interest in them. I can go ice skating if I desire ice lol.

Perhaps it's time to ask a couple of folks to help you out during big events?

Hold? Dude that's better!

I might be wrong, but you strike me as someone who would complain about winning the lottery because of all the taxes you would have to pay on the winnings.

Saw this elsewhere but looks like sounding flights are planned

At least 9 states will have major distribution problems and possibly generation/transmission issues due to loss of load. Your looking at the possibility of over a million customers off-line for an extended period in frigid conditions.

And basically that has to do with how that Baja low rejects, right? (Nervous about that part, lol)

Median outcome pretty sexy. Essentially a hold from 06z.

The totals for metro Atlanta are absolutely bonkers. They gotta pray this is overdone at this point

Don’t think it’ll be Noon Saturday unless you’re outside this area

I'm sure it would. The problem is would they bother to measure it?

Aka the most important signal for us northern tier folks.

Getting my hopes up way too soon starting….NOW

This is the point and click for Westminster. 80% at day 5 is wild Sunday Snow. High near 19. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

I've been telling my non-weather friends 6-10 in your honor but I've also added some "+++" to the end just to keep the hype alive.

KGSP AFD. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Boys and girls...remember these next several days. You will be talking about them and posting maps long after I have gone on...

@The 4 Seasons 31.1” ytd 3 miles W of Middletown NY

Indeed I just don’t have the time to babysit someone who knows better. I work 50 hrs a week and drive to Columbia a lot to take care of my Mom who just started hospice. Not to mention that I’m the only green tagger here now I only want to enjoy this with everyone

Looking at the individual EPS members (nice WxBell maps incoming) it's pretty clear the only reasonable cause for concern is suppression. Northern stream running out too far ahead of the southern stream (ULL slowing down) would be my specific concern with what we're seeing but hopefully we've got some room.

And central park close to a foot ytd

Am I looking at this right that the northern energy and baja energy are moving closer together and therefore phasing sooner leading to a more amplified solution? What makes the GFS different in this regard?

Yep plus the ratios. Nice run despite a little sloppy.

Happy to have ya! We’re a fairly level headed crew most days