All Activity

0Z UKMET shifted a bit E with recurve at 69.6W (vs 71.9W on 12Z) meaning passing by closer to Bermuda: TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 51.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.08.2025 0 17.1N 51.9W 1004 34 1200UTC 15.08.2025 12 18.0N 55.1W 1003 37 0000UTC 16.08.2025 24 19.5N 58.1W 1001 39 1200UTC 16.08.2025 36 20.3N 61.6W 999 41 0000UTC 17.08.2025 48 20.8N 64.4W 996 40 1200UTC 17.08.2025 60 21.4N 66.5W 992 46 0000UTC 18.08.2025 72 22.5N 67.7W 989 48 1200UTC 18.08.2025 84 24.1N 68.7W 987 50 0000UTC 19.08.2025 96 25.9N 69.2W 985 52 1200UTC 19.08.2025 108 27.5N 69.4W 983 57 0000UTC 20.08.2025 120 29.4N 69.6W 979 60 1200UTC 20.08.2025 132 31.7N 68.7W 971 64 0000UTC 21.08.2025 144 33.8N 67.2W 964 70 1200UTC 21.08.2025 156 35.8N 64.0W 960 73 0000UTC 22.08.2025 168 37.6N 59.0W 954 75

We need to talk about the snow....that 10 years were in insane! I am taking minimum 6 inches...max 12 inches. It was the entire decade!!

I’ve already had the equivalent of a very wet TC with 12” of rain so far this month even without a TC! The last thing this area needs is more heavy rain as well as trees being easily toppled due to a high water table. After strong effects in ‘24 from the combo of Debby (10.9” of rain) and Helene (115 hour power outage/loss of food that took only high end TS winds/gusts to ~75 mph), I’d especially love a break. (By the way, FEMA never paid me for the food losses it promised even though I applied on the phone. ) Of course what I got pales in comparison to what others got from Helene to my W and NW and from Milton in FL. They’re the ones that especially need a break! Among other problems, the homeowner’s insurance situation is already ugly in much of the SE. I obviously like to follow and discuss these monsters and enjoy the challenge of forecasting what they’ll do. They’re also pretty to look at on satellite pics and are absolutely fascinating, but I want no part of them! Because of that, a boring quiet rest of the season wouldn’t bother me. However, I won’t let that desire bias my posts away from objectivity.

always so cool you can see 1-minute high resolution updates if the GOES-EAST is doing the mesoscale sector like this

This guy..... Lolol. He makes everything about 1,000 more intense than it ever is. He likes using words like " Massive " or " HUGE".

Man I haven’t seen that style loop in ages

Saw the radar, you're on a streak again. As usual since June I'm just getting the crumbs but I'm still well over 4" for the month.

That’s awesome

That's great. I'm just saying you'll never see me weep when one of these SOBs turns fish. I was in Hugo, Floyd and Florence. No thank you to any more.

I moved here in 2008. I missed the big boxing day snow in 2010 as I was visiting my wife's family for Christmas. We did have a white Christmas there though, so I can't complain too much.

Looks like we might be in for another round of hyrdologic issues at some point this coming weekend. 0Z 3K NAM is suggesting Saturday night for the most widespread/long duration convection but that is still pretty far out in its range. @madwx

How long have u lived in Wilson? Do u remember the snow we got there between 2001-2014? It was insane! It was insane snow!

11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 14 Location: 17.1°N 52.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 998 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

The airport ended up with 0.79", all coming in less than an hour. They had a nice cell, not much larger than the airport itself, pass right overhead. I only ended up with a few hundredths of an inch.

I’d thought we missed the rain today but I was wrong. It’s pouring. Made it up to 86.7 but with dewpoints in the upper 70’s it felt like it was almost 100

That’s a great story. I always wondered if fishers island was surfable. Takes a serious swell to make it through block island sound. On the hurricane teddy swell a few years ago I could hear the boulders moving under the waves in Montauk. A very cool clunking sound. Surfed some 15’ waves at ditch plains that day.

DT's thoughts fwiw

Frigid cold Texas sweet tea and lemonade, amid visions of a ice locked entire eastern section of America this winter, alongside frigid vodka cold northerly winds and deep drifting snow.

I don't remember that one. But .. Yore

If any of you would like to, you can watch his service here: https://view.oneroomstreaming.com/index.php?data=MTc1NDMyODYyNzM3NDQ4MSZvbmVyb29tLWFkbWluJmNvcHlfbGluaw== The young lady who speaks first is my daughter. Clearly, I've done well.

Thought I was going to make it through the day without rain for the first time in a while but a late shower ended that. Only .21 but it's insult to injury at this point.

87.7 in Muttontown & 87.2 in Syosset today.

Gorgeous backlit CB on expressway tonight heading north. Expressway was flooded so we had to detour through Quincy. Man hole covers popping off by Furnace Brook Parkway. Biggun storm.

No rain, 87 for a high. Didn’t hit 90 like I thought I would. Can’t tell you how much I’m over his summer. The humidity has been Houston level for months. This new climate sucks.

Yeah I remember that. Had big hail in Duxbury. @amarshall We had quite a few back then. Probably don’t remember the Scituate/Marshfield super cell that brought baseballs to Scituate on 7/3/04