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https://papers.jcohler.com/keeling

ensembles rock solid on positive anomalies in our source region and the pac jet about to start doing classic nino things out west

The future is bleak for America.

Thanks, Chris. Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative: 1+2: 0.8 3: 0.7 3.4: 0.9 4: 1.2 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.

The real concern is, Hopefully the stuff replacing them are better.

RIP NAM today is the last day. No more getting NAMD with snow before a big storm.

Looking ahead to early winter - plenty of blocking up north but need the ridge to expand further west into western Canada to allow colder air in - will have an active storm track across country - storm tracks uncertain but blocking favors storms not being able to cut that much

older nam had 80 inch for some storms..

Thanks, Adam. Impressive! What is the second warmest in history for 3.4 absolute ~Nov 1st and what year?

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 28OCT2026 26.7 5.4 29.5 4.4 30.2 3.4 30.1 1.4

BWI: 19.0" DCA: 12.0" IAD: 21.0" RIC: 9.0" SBY: 3.5"

The preliminary global mean surface temperature for October 31 was 14.980C. That would break the daily mark of 14.831C from 2024. October 2026 finished as the warmest October on record. Following the record warm October, 2026 ranks as the second warmest year on record (ERA-5).

And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history… EDIT: @GaWx The 2nd highest absolute temperature ever recorded for region 3.4 was back in November of 2015 at over 29C

Going to miss the 30 inch snowfall maps

November 2 1938: A tornado touches down at Nashwauk in Itasca County. Many livestock killed. 1842: A mild spell occurs at Ft. Snelling, where the temperature rises to 60 degrees. For Monday, November 2, 2026 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 2 Mon Job Action Day 2 Mon International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists 2 Mon Recreation Day 2 Mon All Souls' Day 2 Mon Arrival of Indentured Labourers 2 Mon Be the Impact Day 2 Mon Broadcast Traffic Professionals Day 2 Mon Dynamic Harmlessness Day 2 Mon Look for Circles Day 2 Mon National Deviled Egg Day 2 Mon National Ohio Day

Sad day

With the long range drying out considerably, we now look to come close to the driest year on record at GSO

The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 07OCT2026 4.4 3.4 2.4 0.2 14OCT2026 4.4 3.5 2.4 0.0 21OCT2026 4.4 3.6 2.5 0.0 28OCT2026 4.6 3.7 2.5 0.2 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week. -Nino 1+2’s +4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week. -Nino 3’s +3.7 is a new record high for any week beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s +3.6. -Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015 -Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.

Here’s to the NAM [emoji1634] Rip .

Sad day

Gorgeous

Regardless of the actual +IOD raw numbers, there is very clear +IOD forcing present on the OLR and VP charts. So the atmospheric coupling is there, which is what is important. It would be impossible not to have a +IOD with a Nino this insanely strong, it causes one to develop. It’s not going to make any difference in the strength of this Nino, nor how well it is and has been coupled. We are light years stronger than 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. It’s not even remotely close. This Nino has already secured its place as the strongest event in history and it’s going to increase its strength even more into December

NAMS are being retired today after a long delay

Wild, I’ve had probably 10 mornings in the 20’s.