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  2. SnoSki14
    If you have a strong closed low with PWATs above 2" in late July then someone's gonna see a ton of rain. Given the rains we've had this month I see a flood risk upgrade to moderate for Tuesday
  3. frd
    WPC's afternoon update below has increased totals again for the Mid Atlantic region. Here is a snippet from the AFD Mount Holly - PWats will rise to near 2" by the end of the day. Some models suggest we could have a stalled or slow moving frontal boundary across the central or northern portion of the forecast area, which could act as a focusing mechanism for heavy rainfall. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding could end up being a bigger concern and greater impact than the severe thunderstorm threat.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think it was January 2019: 2019-01-12 37 30 33.5 -3.8 31 0 0.13 1.9 0 2019-01-13 32 29 30.5 -6.7 34 0 0.71 8.3 4 2019-01-14 37 27 32.0 -5.2 33 0 T 0.1 10
  5. KakashiHatake2000
    Oh awesome seems like last time I believe but gotcha .
  6. dendrite
    Imagine moving to MT and thinking you're getting away from the heat
  7. dendrite
    Gettin' there
  8. TheDreamTraveler
    Forecast high for today is 82 and it's already 84 degrees at 2 PM. Genuinely what is going on. This has been multiple days in a row now the temp forecast has been off by multiple degrees. If it's 84 now it'll probably get to 85 or 86 by 5 PM.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not talking about early on...forget that. December is going to be warm. Case closed. But some guidance like the JMA and EURO are trying to pull it back far enough west to salvage January....that is what I am skeptical of. I think that guidance is overdone.
  10. kdxken
    I don't get the Freedom Models. Not sure they're included in the blend.
  11. dendrite
    TKGW 49° in Durham in July is NBD.
  12. Damage In Tolland
    If you’d look at them for once you’d see the trend
  13. kdxken
    Which models are these?
  14. snowman19
  15. WxUSAF
    Yeah they are a good sign
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exciting stuff....there is a unicorn scenario in there which it pulls everything just far enough to act like a Modoki, but I would only bet on that for small periods right now.
  17. jaxjagman
    Most seemingly is by a MCS into the night and early morning,the low level shear and lapse rates get better leading into later today,as to where this MCS goes which seems to be middle TN or east TN is still the question,Plenty of instability.HRR shows the KI-index of 44,would be quite a light show around Nashville,probably will back down later runs on that
  18. snowman19
    We aren’t going to know how the atmosphere is going to react (forcing) to having the 30C isotherm east of the dateline until this fall. Even 1997 never saw the 30C warm pool come this far east. The models continue to show it getting all the way to 140W, which is definitely believable now given all the record WWBs and there is also no precedent for it since that has never happened before
  19. JTA66
    Halloween candy on sale at CVS
  20. 87storms
    About as classic of a summer day as you'll get. Partly cloudy, warm (but not too hot) and humid with isolated, afternoon popup storms.
  21. Today
  22. marsman
    Low of 67 at 6:23am. At 8.44" for the month.
  23. SnowenOutThere
    You know more than me of course, but I have to think we’re seeing the pattern shift happening. We’ve now had a string of strong lows move by to our north, which if it wasn’t mid summer and the thermal boundary wasn’t up in Canada they would be our synoptic rainfalls instead of convection along the cold front. Now this week looks to have a cutoff low over the northeast that dumps rain too. We still might have some dry periods but it seems, to me at least, the real drought period is over.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't even do maps..I do a snowfall table and give ranges.
  26. Damage In Tolland
    This threat seems like heaviest axis will be Upstste NY up into NNE. Everything slowly moving that direction
  27. stormy
    Historically, there are wet Nino summers and historically there are dry Nino summers. Strong Nino's (greater than =1.0) almost always create a cold season robust subtropical jet which usually favors a wet cold season (mid October through February.) Richmond has a higher probability of a wet winter than Staunton or Winchester, 80/60. D.C. comes in at about 70%.
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