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State salt trucks are filled and sitting along rt. 23 in Sussex county. Guess they're expecting some lake effect snow showers this afternoon. They learned their lesson a couple weeks ago. Lol

someone tell me why i'm supposed to care about ski resorts

MLI will exceed its 2024-25 total in 2025-26 before December. Thinking 4-6" here. Hoping the dryslot/potential end as rain in sunday morning isn't too bad.

Interesting signal on the HRRR for some lake enh in far SE WI and Lake County IL. A limiting factor of that would be 1:6-1:8 ratios with the warmer air.

Any updates on Sunday and Tuesday...supposed to start a new job with a steep and shady driveway between Miller's Creek and West Jefferson. 24 here at our place in Jefferson with slight winds and partly cloudy. Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving!

C-1" ---> rain. Good for the ski resorts in NY and southern VT though! They need snow.

If only we can get the AO and NAO Negative. A weak South displaced PV ala 2015 might still work for Northern Area's. If you want great Odds for SE Snowstorms you want a Negative AO and NAO. Very rarely we see all these line up anymore.

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).

maybe we have a shot for some flurries in the afternoon

Icon isn't great, but it has creeped further south making it a lot closer than 0z and 6z.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

#neverforget IMG_7041.mov

2009-10 was a strong El Niño. 2010-11 was a strong La Niña.

I think it would if it wasn’t so marginal in like 100+ millibar layer. I suppose that at the height it could flip to a 33F paste if it’s really really pounding. I just go back in saying bring me those runs from yesterday.

Absolutely correct.

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

I am hoping for heavy rates to wash out minor 850 925 plus .2s

34° -SN Getting heavier

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec?

No, I definitely didn’t do that. I was looking at the 6z euro and that was my interpretation. It was mild in the boundary layer.

That’s the real killer here because if there was more sea ice, then it definitely would’ve been colder and northern Canada, which bleeds down to the rest of Canada and is the source region for the Northeast’s cold air. With such a low arctic sea ice, it limits the amount of cold air that can be tapped into in the northeast and that ends up screwing over locations along the coast until climatology becomes cold enough later in December and January. That’s just one of the many reasons why Tuesday’s storm will likely be rain from most south of I 84 because they’re simply isn’t enough cold air around.

Or whiff. Goalposts set tomorrow, I think it’s most likely a moderate snowstorm for the interior. I’ll be watching the high to the North and if the models start leaning stronger or weaker system. Euro AI had me slightly spooked but we’ll see.

2009-2010 strong la nina *

Jerry is in Chicago

I get it totally. Just trying to pull out of you why you tossed the 6z Euro and Ens in favor of the GFS