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Blerg. I thought I cross pollinated this in the winter thread.

Moving this discussion here. If this is the general longwave pattern we see for winter.. sold.

Was a pleasant day today. Had a low of 36 before a breeze set in and the temp rose. Had a high today of 65 and a current temp of 57. Been a beeezy day today so the winds going to have to subside before we can really drop.

Lots of potential but extreme uncertainty. Crazy run to run differences. 18z GFS with a strong low

GEFS well west at hr78

Euro FTW Jamaica is screwed

Still a lot for models to sort out. Anything is on the table

18z GFS came west a bit still ots but big changes.. GEFS further west so far by a good bit

The one feature you like to see on the LR ens guidance and the extended products is the advertised persistent Aleutian trough and downstream PNA ridge. Not Nina-like. We shall see how it plays out going forward. eta- Continuing this in the winter thread. More appropriate there.

Ravens sign Carl Lawson. Eh, mid. Not likely gonna move the needle much on pressuring the QB.

Jamaica will disrupt the core if it moves directly over it. 20 miles south or north and it may actually help consolidate the core and intensify faster. Also the eastern part has the highest terrain.

Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn: 1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.

First frost/freeze/hard freeze here this morning with 27. Probably end up 24-25 tonight.

=== ::: [] <<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Oct 2025 >>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __TOTALS ___ Consensus ______647 _692 _724_ 2063__612 _686 _682_1980 _4043__709_742_812_2263 __6306 Tom __________________ 675 _708 _764 __2147 __606 _612 _680__1898 _4045 __770 _736 _754__2260___6305 hudsonvalley21 _______613 _690 _752 __2055 __558 _636 _683 __1877 _3932 __738 _696 _814__2248___6180 so_whats_happening __683 _726 _700 __2109 __620 _688 _617__1925__4034 __694 _662 _774__2130___6164 Scotty Lightning ______668 _ 746 _718 __ 2132__507 _586 _684__1777 _3909 __677 _772 _768__2217___6126 RJay _________________ 580 _681 _709 __ 1970 __678 _718 _678__2074 _4044 __629 _651 _711 __ 1991___6035 (edit in progress below, Oct scores not yet added in) DonSutherland1 ______ 529 _578 _624 __1731 __560 _596 _582__ 1738 _3469 __645 _616 _690__1951___5420 DonSutherland1 ________ 50 _ 58 _ 70 _178 _ 92 _ 64 _ 34 _ 190 _368 _76 _ 48 _ 76 _200 __ 568 wxallannj _____________ 515 _554 _592 __1661 __514 _554 _618__ 1686 _ 3347 __634 _654 _679 __1967___5314 wxallannj _______________54 _ 62 _ 70 _186 _ 40 _ 66 _ 46 _ 152 _338_ 80 _ 86 _ 72 _238 __ 576 RodneyS _____________ 552 _560 _628 __1740 __394 _472 _576__1442 _3182 __561 _592 _822 __1975___ 5157 RodneyS _______________ 98 _ 76 _ 88 _262 _ 76 _ 42 _ 60 _ 178 _ 440 _ 92 _ 88 _ 62 _ 242 __ 682 wxdude64 ____________496 _542 _560 __1598 __430_ 542 _580__1552 _3150__ 653 _646 _684__1983__ 5133 wxdude64 ______________88 _ 96 _ 86 _270 _ 00 _ 46 _ 10 _ 056 _326 _ 52 _ 96 _ 66 _ 214 __ 540 Roger Smith __________498 _584 _594 __1676 __562 _570 _588__1720 _3396 __448 _604 _673__ 1725___5121 Roger Smith ___________ 30 _ 30 _ 34 _094 _ 96 _100_70_266 _360_100 _ 60 _ 56 _216 __ 576 StormchaserChuck ___559 _582 _600 __1741 __414 _614 _ 521__1549 _ 3290 __ 605 _612 _597 __ 1814___5104 StormchaserChuck1 ___ 36 _ 40 _ 50 _126 _ 86 _ 88 _ 50 _224 _350_ 70 _ 96 _ 80 _246 __ 596 ___ Normal ____________528 _576 _586 __1690 __458 _386 _405__1249__2939__648 _546 _666__1860__4799 ___ Normal _____________100 _ 90 _ 80 _270 _ 00 _ 30 _ 00 _ 030 _ 300 _60 _100 _80 _240 __ 540 BKViking (7/9) _______ 366 _403 _439 __1208 __378 _486 _424__1288 _2496 __476 _480 _497__1453__3949 BKViking _______________ 68 _ 76 _ 86 _230 _ 34 _ 60 _ 24 _ 118 _348 _ 80 _ 80 _ 64 _224 __ 572 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5078 Yoda _(2/9) ____________094 _110 _110 __ 314 __ 124 _ 110 _ 188 __ 422 ___ 736 __168 _148 _168 ___ 484 ___1220 yoda ___________________ 64 _ 82 _ 94 _240 _ 50 _ 64 _ 36 _ 150 _390 _ 86 _ 62 _ 74 _222 __ 612 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __5490 maxim (2/9) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5000 Ephesians2 _ (1/10) ____ 14 _ 34 _ 50 __ 098 ___ 92 _ 90 _ 72 _ 252 ___ 350 _ 80 _ 74 _ 90 ___ 244 _____ 594 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __5940 Persistence ___________320 _430 _560 __1310 ___286 _344 _566 _1196 _2506__470 _462 _636 __1568 ___4074 ___ Persistence __(Sep) _ 96 _ 82 _ 98 _ 276 _ 60 _ 80 _ 24 _164 _440 _58 _ 80 _ 50 _188 __ 628 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ (not yet updated for Oct) ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score ____________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS ___ Consensus ______2*__0 __ 0 ___0 ___0 __0 __ 1 __0 __0 ___1 ___1 ___1 ___0 ___0 Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___2^ __2^___1 ___1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___2^___2 ___2 __ Mar,Jun hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___2 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__1^__ 1^___0 ___ 0 __1^__ 3 ___ 0 __0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___1 ____1 _Sep(t) RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 2^__1^__ 2^^__3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^___0 ___ 0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*__ 0 ___ 0 __1 ___0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 wxallannj _______________1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__0 ___0 ____0 RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___1 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 ____2 _ May,Aug wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___2 ___ 0 __0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___0 __0___ 0 ____1 _ Jan Roger Smith ____________1^ __3^^__2^ __2 ___3 ___3^^__2^^__ 1 ___2 ___0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____3 _ Feb,Jul,Sep(t) StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____0 _Apr BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____1 ___ 1*__0 ___0 ___0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __0 ___1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ============================== (tie for Consensus or Normal is not a tie for forecaster(s)) Extreme forecasts _ not yet updated for Oct So far, 46 of 81 ... 23 for warmest and 23 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1, Aug 1-6 and Sep 5-1. Forecaster ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ______________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 _1-0 __11-2 ___10.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith ___________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0_4^-0__12-2___8.0 - 2.0 ___ Normal _____________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 _1-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _______ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 _3^-0 __8-1 ____ 6.5 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 _________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-1 ___3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim __________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ____________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0_1*-0 __ 4-0 ___ 3.0 - 0.0 wxdude64 ______________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 _0-1 __ 3-1 ____2.33-1.0 RJay ____________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0_1*-0 _ 4-0 ___ 2.0-0.0 so_whats_happening ___ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 _0-0__3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland _________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _______________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0_0-0__1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 ^ (note: For Sep wins, Roger Smith and Scotty Lightning tied three, not shown by * symbols but calculated into adjusted scores) =========================================================

I didn’t question that piece from the op-ed. It might be useful also to look at how things are projected to change as warming continues.

Relentless, UFO-level cloud deck nearby today. If you love winter, you gotta love the upcoming forecast.

That track would be quite disastrous for Jamaica as it rakes most of the island with the front right quadrant. Not to mention the huge amount of moisture that will be lifted and squeezed out by the mountains.

What about this: Similarly, while we incessantly — and correctly — hear about increasing heat deaths from rising temperatures, we rarely hear that deaths from exposure to cold are much more deadly and decline with rising temperatures. A comprehensive global model, published by The Lancet, shows that the temperature increase this century has reduced cold deaths much more than it has increased heat deaths, meaning that each year, more than 150,000 people each year don’t die from temperature-related mortality.

Close up of Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Going through a box from attic this weekend I got hit by a blast from the past. This amazing, expensive map from 1991 was my weather tracking bible. I used to record weather channel on VHS so that I could pause weather radar to outline on paper and estimate on my close up map Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Been a pretty boring month. Hopefully next one is better.

I forecast @cyclone77 and MLI to get more snow than they received last winter.

I would take the entire historic season again!

Not pro, but some ridiculous crazy things were going on around college basketball in the 1970s - 1980s especially Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk