All Activity

Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months: 30.21: Nov. ‘23 30.19: Jun ‘26 30.13: Nov ‘15 30.04: Dec ‘23 30.00: May ‘26 With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have in parts of May/June of ‘15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noa

Mm... to be fair, not sure how much of a "bust" this is... It rained spot 8" totals ivo of slow moving convection around the mid and upper M/A - which by nature of what that is, yeah, it's very localized ... granted. But doing so in a general 2-4" coverage from Delware to SE NH is reasonable. What busts in my mind is the amplitude in the models - to some degree, that was the case this time, just like we've seen so many times in the past since these models got updated, circa 2015, and have been consistently biased about ever since. 96 to 200+ hour range tends to "end the world" far more frequently than the pedestrian aspect that actually takes place. Some normalization is all but dependable. Again.. a filtration that still ... fails to modulate impressions of guidance by humans. This is what leads to the 2nd form of bust... (these are two concurrent busts moving past one another). Humans than exaggerating... exaggeration is not ever likely to end well for verification. Removing the wanton human goober factor, and accounting for the known model amp bias... it rained within reason. Some else mentioned something that I liked the other day... Maybe it was Scott or Vortex95 ? but raining 6" is impressive no matter what, but it's different animal entirely when that occurs in 2 hours rather than 2 days.

the last one trended east and this one has started edging

Ryan was concerned that some areas were in for flooding too…so what can you do? Modeling was throwing those ideas around.

Finally, getting good rains.

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?). One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming

3.41”

1.1"

Stein dead and buried, and cremated here. When all is said and done..we’ll be upper 3’s to near 4” from this. Yes, no flooding, which was good, but a soaking soaker for sure.

It doesn't seem like you will ever win the lottery, don't waste your money playing.

It's like the Orioles hitting ability, it's always an hour late.

We tried to tell him yesterday afternoon…he refused the good advice. Ya hate to see it. CT was always positioned to do well in this. Still raining here as we speak.

Falmouth is officially over 5 inches.

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

Just finalized reservations for flights, lodging and an SUV rental for a week in the Northern Rockies the first week of August. Planning to hike Glacier National Park, Yellowstone and Grand Teton with my son. Looks like some of the trails we plan to hit have been closed recently due to heavy rain and snow melt. Others due to heightened bear activity ! Hoping the forecast for that ridge to set up out west the next few weeks verifies. Will rely on bear spray for the rest.

It did rain here. W

Analog 850 inflow is very wet for you. Some knew

Snow rooms: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/style/snow-rooms-home-technoalpin.html?unlocked_article_code=1.v1A.xAsJ.i6M32dlKAMai&smid=url-share

An additional .06 overnight brings the total here to 3.81" for the event. No standing water shows how dry it has been and that the ground soaked up every drop.

Incredible

The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these: 1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997) 3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6) The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982). ———————— Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.

Anyway I hope you get this man Hit me back, just to chat Truly yours, your biggest fan This is Stein

I know the QBO will be positive...just looking for monthly numbers.

This is the latest RAOB update, the +QBO is still descending, now down to 40mb In other news, the +IOD gets going soon And the ++PMM continues @Gawx Has there ever been an El Niño event that saw the 30C isotherm end up east of the dateline? I know 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 didn’t do it….

Soaking rains in and around Taunton