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12z HRRR

Feel like I’m too far east.

Bridgewater, NH feels like the play today. Always the lake sunapee region in NH.

81/74

Thankfully not downtown, just inside the beltway.

Man it’s warm out. Drenched. Love it.

GFS has you covered

Yeah that’s a little strange. Maybe they have it on clear air mode?

76/68 she comin’…probably a 2-5pm window for here.

Clearing sort of peeling north through most of SNH.

Yeah, our key time, a few miles south of Philly is 4-5 pm when the outdoor ceremony was planned (after that it's all indoors) and while the HRRR is showing precip holding off down here (and for 95 up through CNJ) until about 6 pm, the 12Z NAM and RGEM, so far, are showing at least 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm (presumably mostly closer to 5 pm), which would be a mess for an outdoor wedding that ends at 5 pm. Tough call, but we've already decided to move the ceremony indoors, which has the bonus of getting a bunch of people over 55 out of the heat and humidity. Thanks, as always, for your expertise.

Soupy 18 holes this morning. Any chance we clear out before initiation?

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin. ACE season to date is now below normal. We're at 39 and normal is 47. Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122. It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off. MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen. Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done. I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast. Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons. Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

Oh so close to the first 30s low of the season. 40.5 degrees.

October will have some sultry days/nights.

womp womp

Said this yesterday. The plug has been pulled.

We haven’t turned ours on yet, the house has been staying around 65-67 with the windows closed and lows in the mid 40s down here. Natural gas fireplace has been flipped on though.

39 here this morning again.

ECM is now incapable of seeing below normal temps. It blowtorches everything >30 days out by default now. Garbage warm biased model

We moved to Fort Kent on Jan 1, 1976 and moved back south (Gardiner) on Oct 25, 1985, so I missed the big Novie dump, though we waded thru it a week later on Public Land (Scraggly Lake) just NE from Baxter Park. The day we moved to FK was relatively mild, low 20s. Then Jan 9-13 had minima -33/-36/-24/-41/-37. 1976 was probably the most weather-eventful year of my lifetime, though the 12 months March 1960-Feb 1961 was close.

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

Mother Nature "F.U. and your garage sale preparations." What happened to this forecast? "Today Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 10 to 14 mph."

It still got the pattern wrong, though...which is why it was too warm. I wouldn't consider it a win for those that forecasted a big winter for the mid atlantic during the 2015-2016 season, despite the fact that snowfall worked out. I'm not arguing your point about storm track, but the EURO seasonal was still a tremendously flawed forecast. I am willing to bet if we had less of a neg NAO last season, the northeast would have done better via more overrunning and SWFE snowfall, kind of like what we saw in February. I understand your point about increased reliance on Benchmark tracks in the NE, but some of that is due to SE Canada being warmer relative to other areas independent of CC. We saw that shift some last year and if se Canada is appreciably cold again, which I suspect that it will be, I would bet on more snowfall.

Wow this is winter levels of falling off a cliff…