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So, so excited for this one. I think we’ll do quite well at home too, but I’ve seen this type of storm unfold far too many times back in my NY days to not chase up this way. Looking like ground zero for QPF

Accuweather had me at 6-10 all day while also linking to the official 20-24 inch Blizzard warning. Bit of a disparity.

Dont sweat the qpf trims from east tics.

NYC mayor said they are looking for snow shovelers. I used to make a killing when I was young doing that in the neighborhood :)

Dab+

It is going to be pushed west... when the coastal low tucks more and rakes baltimore

It sucks-no lie. I was in Boston last weekend and I definitely thought that one would edge north at the end because I wasn’t home.

Likely the SREFs, but the NBM consists of 80+ different, individual ensemble members. I'm going off memory here, but it includes 10 SREF, 30 GEFS, 50 EPS, 3kmNAM, GFS, RAP, the high-res ARW models, and maybe 1 or two different (experimental) diagnostic models. The models incorporated into the NBM are lagged by a couple cycles too so it's not ingesting the most recent simulations. Honestly, I get why people get so confused with it.

@RitualOfTheTroutNew Ken looks to be in some good squalls.

they been saying that all day accuweather on the radio side has gone downhill last few years that why i miss wcbs am radio sad they were closed. down..

Down to 33 in fallston

Alright here’s my one and only map for this storm. Tried my best for a blend of things. My concerns from my post earlier are still valid and noted here.

Why not?

How far east can the norlun go?

Yeah that was painful to view. I'm just completely lost at this point, can't imagine how professional Mets are feeling haha. I just got off a long call with a buddy who is a big weather guy and we have no idea how things are going to play out. Hope we aren't stuck in the middle of the two features.

32/28ºF with the initial precip on the doorstep here.

I'm looking at any daytime accumulation as a bonus - the heavier snow looks to be moving in late afternoon, and about every model has the 2M temps at or below freezing by 6 or 7 pm for most of us. This is a late pm and overnight storm as far as I can tell. Enjoy!

It’s okay guys, I’ll take this one for the team.

Really not trying to make light of it, but WTF is a "state of preparedness"? Lol why not just do a state of emergency? @Eskimo Joe are you able to shed any light on this?

Only in 2026! I think we should declare a state of confusion!

32.2/31.9 really dropping tonight

Could certainly end up that way, just have to let the chips fall at this point.

I'm not too worried about the GFS.

You just admitted it would be brutal, lol You know, that doesn't bother me as much as the whole setup between norlun and coastal. Unless that norlun keeps trending east of course

36/31, ticking down