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If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker.

Its going be a weak La Nina....not prohibitive to east coast winter, but nor do I expect a primary storm track over the benchmark. Going to me a blend of messy storms and redevelopers IMO.

ENSO should be a bit weaker than last year, but I don't think it will make much of a diff. As for analogs, take a look at my new blog post with respect to the higher latitudes. I haven't done the Pacific yet....probably towards the end of the month.

My yard runs moist, but it’s even starting to get dire here

It’s a small contingent fortunately.

Chrome, PF knew how to fix it

Shot an 86 today. Putted well, 29 putts. If I could hit an ‘effin iron, I think I could consistently play in the mid-80s. It’s so frustrating.

Very interesting and impressive stat. Going to get worse before it gets better it seems.

I should also mention that our understanding of CO2's radiative force, though not perfect, is actually pretty good. Remember that the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) and others like it are an essential component of most global and regional circulation models (like GFS, ECMWF, etc.) that we all rely on for weather forecasts and is used to design space based observational radiometers like those onboard the GOES-R satellites. Radiative transfer through the atmosphere plays a huge role not only in forecasting weather but also in the real time observation of it. Even the minor active bands of CO2 like that around 13.3 um (and which is several orders of magnitude less than its bending vibrational mode around 15 um) have to be modeled precisely otherwise the GOES-R channel 16 data would be useless. Note that the RRTM says the radiative force of 2xCO2 is about 4 W.m-2 or about 0.3 W.m-2 higher than the often cited [Myhre et al. 1998] estimate of 3.7 W.m-2 using the older and less precise LBL, NBM, and BBM radiative transfer models. 2xCO2 is the equivalent of about 200 million years of solar brightening [Gough 1981] or 10x (and likely higher) the magnitude of change from a grand solar minimum (like the Maunder Minimum) to maximum (like the Modern Maximum around 1950). Basically what I'm saying is that we know with very high confidence that the change in CO2 is significantly more influential in the radiative balance of Earth than that of the Sun.

This was almost over the airport

Is that a par 3 or from tee to fairway?

91 earlier, now down to 82

Car said 93 in Camp Hill

Since September 1st to today, have received around 30" of rain...that's around 15" below normal for that period. That's the driest I've ever seen for almost a twelve month period.

Wow. Only got to 86 here ever so briefly. Already down to 83.

What an incredibly beautiful weekend. #perfection

Briefly touched 90° today after a 59° low.

Normal/below normal temps from the 20th to the end of the run. That puts us a few days from Sept. I'm sure we will get our typical second summer heat, but if August plays out like this given the nice period we just experienced, hard to complain.

Temp skyrocketed today. It’s 92 at 5.

That front Thursday keeps looking more meh each run. Numbers ticking up Friday into weekend . Wonder if just straight 90 right thru next weekend . Today was day 9 with no rain. Add on another 10. Stein sittin back, smilin

147 slope but come on.

Come to papa

That look would be enjoyable. Also, would keep Atlantic hurricanes away.