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nammy

Further research reveals that the last time California had neither drought nor abnormally dry conditions was more than 25 years ago -- December 2000. However, in that month many other states were similary situated, with drought a relatively minor problem in the US. So today's situtation may be unique in US history; see Map Archive | U.S. Drought Monitor

Every year I follow this crew, and every year I watch you all still living and dying off single model runs. I wouldn't have it any other way. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

It was great luck for the Gulf coast, S GA, and the E Carolinas! I owe getting my record sleetstorm to Sir Brick.

I thought I was done. I was sunny for a good while but got really dark again and started ripping again even though radar didn't look that great.. Didn't last long. Some bigger blobs out to the west. But more breaks until they get here.

Is Kev on bath salts? There’s no front here yet. It’s 47 and sunny outside lol.

will this be the wild NAM run?

You really love saying that, don't you? Over and over...

This is starting to remind me of the Dec 14th storm. Where models had everything breaking up over the mountains but ending up doing good in the east

Did you mean November to March every year?

looks like nam is taking a whole different approach on getting us some snow fall. hopefully it can make it over the mountains.

43.4 in Muttontown & 43.8 in Syosset, about 3.5 miles apart.

Agreed on this

Did you mean January 2016?

39 here. We can asterisk your temps now that they are confirmed as 1 degree too low...

Never got above 41 here today and is currently 30. The torch, thaw, respite from the cold December or whatever you want to call it is over. If the EURO is on the right track and I suspect it is (although over doing the cold) it will take the positive temperature departures for the first half of the month to the woodshed. Only way we get even close to the 12Z depiction of the coming cold is if we can get a decent snow cover down and that is questionable at this time. I'd like to see forum wide depth of at least 6" to maximize the coming cold.

Euro

That’s what it shows. What do you think verbatim means? Simsbury wins again.

Keep trying lol

Where I agree is that meteorologists can use local knowledge combined with model output to occasionally outforecast a global model locally, in the short range, and for limited parameters like surface temperature. But forecasters who think they can outforecast a global weather model at the synoptic scale or in the mid-range are deluding themselves. They are susceptible to all sorts of biases that convince them that their gut feelings are superior (confirmation bias, availability heuristic, confidence bias etc).

Everything I’ve read about AI suggests deep learning which SHOULD make it improve with time. I’ve been involved in AI models for screening major disease and the performance is NOT worse than human. Humans have to determine the relevance of the results in terms of management but I’m seeing some evidence of a “head in the sand” approach to anything AI. I think that logic is inherently flawed.

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

Luck you, dropped from 44 this morning to 37 this afternoon.

The record low max for Boston is 2. For the airport it's 6 (1943, 1968). 10 days below 10 since 1936, three of which occurred in 2004. So yeah, I'm skeptical this verifies.

Verbatim a nice WoR deal into the monads.