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models are unreliable in these setups = now casting time using radars and this smoke is still hanging in there making the sky look strange
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It's inside, but I have bad luck of getting recalled for work when I finally get a date day with the wife.
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SPC has moved marginal risk westward into middle TN for 5% wind also did you check out SPC discussion a upgrade to 60% for wind in the already 45% wind in mid Atlantic New England area .
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I'm wondering about that batch of rain moving in from PA as well
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And the funny thing is, remember how I mentioned that yesterday's 12z HRRR nailed our area today around 10 in the morning. That HRRR run yesterday ended up being correct, but future runs lost it. It's such an inconsistent model, but it's certainly useful at times.
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Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
Damage In Tolland replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
What do you think on timing? -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Smoke can create a cool pool and a theory is an interacting front or low can exploit that for energy. -
76 and thunderstorms here. Getting very dark.
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Hrrr doesn't even have this round
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This is the warm front which sets the stage for later. Without it there wouldn’t be much of a severe threat later.
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However we get the rain I’m good with.
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That concert indoors? I know there's another concert at Ravens stadium tonight and that could get interesting with big t-storms. 85/78 here with the blue sky starting to show with southerly winds pushing the smoke out.
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You have to wonder if this early convection is messing up our chances for later, but I don't care -- that was a very nice storm. I got a quick 0.46" from it. Glad the vegetable garden got a good watering.
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Looks like the beginning of at least a seasonably active period with daily chances for strong thunderstorms, including a day five 15% probability for Eastern Virginia, NC, and Northern SC.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No measurable rain fell here this morning. I hope that whatever it takes for severe weather to develop fails. I don't like days like today. And I don't like being in the hatched area for TOR. -
Not as bad but still disgusting. AQIs are still around 200.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
TheDreamTraveler replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Getting really crazy thunder here too. Barely hear it clap like that -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
these storms are tapping something. It usually doesn't thunder like this all morning Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
Lights flickering.....PLEASE NO. Not ready for another round of power outages. Not now and not later today. Just no.
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Invest 91-L now
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Loud booms here in Rockaway
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It was a nice little lightning-fueled cell that dropped a quick .15”. A precursor for later? No wind though. Air is clearing up already.
