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Big miller a coastal at 10-11 days out. Borderline rainer verbatim, but it’s something. Very promising

Well... We've been waiting for a possible upcoming pattern to produce, that would be interesting. Obviously details are a long way off

Looks like the first time in a while that a 6z run looks promising.

6z gfs is the wettest run for this weekend yet. Just about doubles the totals of earlier runs across the metros.

Haven't looked yet... but you must be feeling better

6z GFS

Great day to ski in Maine

35⁰ rain looks like Hubbardston wins the ice ring for the day

None of those seasons had accumulating December snowfall in the metros.

Would still be enough to mothball the futility thread for the season.

Yeah, those should definitely be in winter hibernation. Founding queen of Vespula germanica (German yellowjacket).

I wish it wasn't happening. I'd give anything to see winter flounder return to the numbers we had in the late 70s and 80s. As someone who has salt water fished the past 40 plus years so much points to warming waters. If we had consistently colder winters the codfish would have a better chance of producing conditions which would aid in maximizing spawning recruitment which at least might combat some of the overfishing problems and maybe it wouldn't have had to be closed.

West winds did it again! Sheltered locations remain in the low to mid 30s but about an hour ago we received wnw winds that shot temps up. 55 degrees currently

Still spitting some flakes. 1.7”/0.14”

Agreed. MJO phase and strength matters, but ePac anomaly placements, polar strat evolution, arctic blocking…they all have a say too. Right now, my concern is not in winter feeling like winter rest of the month…but rather if we'll get future troughs to dig deep and sync with the STJ. The emergence of fantasy “big dogs” gives me some hope.

There is some incredibly dense fog outside right now. I can barely see across the street. Visibility can’t be much more than 1/10 mile with this.

The timeframe around the 15th or so has fairly consistently looked like it could be the best attempt at amplification we’ve seen so far this winter, which is definitely not saying much. Whether or not we can get some better phasing of features there remains to be seen, and probably will for a good while yet considering the range and model performance lately. There’s some potential there though, and during a period next week which should be at least seasonably cold. But in the meantime while we’re warmer and occasionally raining the next few days, 30 year anniversary of the Blizzard of 96 highlights might have to fill the void. Regarding the lack of bigger coastal snowstorms as of late in our neck of the woods, the Northeastern US apparently hasn’t had a RSI (NESIS) rated event since March 12-16th, 2023 (I had to do digging just to remember what that one did). There’s a slight chance the event right after Christmas might’ve snowed enough over more populated areas (NYC) to be a minimally rated one and hasn’t been added yet, but the point still stands. The last major rated NE storm was the Jan 31-Feb 2, 2021 storm.

Euro AI had storm with lighter amounts near coast. Euro is a hit.

But 15 seconds left with a timeout to spare.. the offense is moving the ball so well... you really are going to make a rookie kicker, who's longest FG all year is 52yds, on the road in Pittsburgh, so loud, kick a 40+ yd FG when he leads the league in erratic kickoffs, going out of bounds? You shouldn't say put it all on one play, but that call definitely costed Harbaugh his job.

Warmth over the next few days will prob take out our very minor snowpack here (probably 2” of slush left). Guess I’m watching Saturdays system but it’s not looking like anything huge.

The stats say go for it though, and that 99.9% of NFL coaches are too conservative in that regard. It's just frustrating when I see the numbers so clear, to have these big guys with tens of millions watching make the wrong call over and over. The one variable where coaches are too aggressive on is the 2-point attempt. It only works 31% of the time. So anything less than 50% is no unless it's a really special circumstance.

Happy anniversary

Yeah, that's probably more important. The SOI was positive 17 months in a row until Dec 2025 ended that streak, but for the first 15 months it was weak.. 0 to +10.. then we had 2 >+10 at the end, then it petered out. My ENSO subsurface monthly index is going to come in positive for Jan though.. not many Nina's that had warm subsurface in January. I'll have to see which ones had that. I know that testing all years gives more of a +PNA signal when the central-ENSO subsurface is warm.

Have faith young man we have recovered from worse even later.