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I like 100. Yes, I'm weird.
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Your pad always looks absolutely dialed, very aesthetically pleasing summer scene.
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Tne SPC upgraded Oklahoma for wind to enhanced at 01Z but not where there's an ongoing tornado outbreak lol
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Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Check out how Nino 1+2 being warm (+2.8c) is hitting +correlation in the Rockies in the medium range.. means you might have to give warm Nino 1+2 analogs credence going forward The Rockies in the Summer recently have almost never seen that kind of cold. That's vs the 81-10 average- 195 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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Up and down pattern continues
- 195 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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25 preliminary tornado reports in IN/IL
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think RONI ends up from like 1.7 to 2.0....just my early guess, but I'll have a better idea next month. ONI 2.2 TO 2.5?? -
Back to back confirmed tornadoes on the ground along the I-64 corridor with this outbreak.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Definitely done better with that past few years. -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Warm Nino 1+2 pattern hitting, despite strong decadal seasonal trend for warmth out there -
2026-2027 Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Unfortunately, in this hobby, no bias = no hope! Lol - Today
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Let's go high res! Stupid rain.
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20s and 30s at night that's what everyone was saying. I can't find a link but I'll repeat it all day.
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Seems to be winding down, perfect timing to wipe out an entire summer day.
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Local outflow boundary in June. Thats an easy decision to chase after work. 2% strong!
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Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS- 195 replies
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- we got burned
- rugpull central
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Today's Highs: ACY: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 TEB: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 JFK: 82 NYC: 82
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18z GFS is just a bit different also who said through mid July
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Large tornado in progress just east of KVWX heading for Fort Branch IN.
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Picked up a whopping .01” from the showers that just rolled through
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Blue skies, blue skies.
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and as the 12Z and 18Z NAM shows the difference in different areas - no consistency - thats why Don's forecast of a 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches without saying where is the best way to go.......
- Yesterday
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's pretty easy not to have a bias. Accept that there is a 85% chance that the Winter will be above average wherever you are, but I think the Strong El Nino historical analog set is biased warm compared to that, with probably too much +AO/NAO. -
They keep showing a split with a screw zone in the middle. It's a riot to see 2.5" and 0.2" within 50 miles.
