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Upton knew it was coming Something else to note which has been consistent in the EPS Ensemble is that through the last 3 runs (18z 2/18 - 06z 2/19) there has been a pretty large cluster of member lows that are lying just northwest of the mean low location. This gives some confidence to an eventual continued northwest trend even though the ECMWF has consistently been one of the farther/drier solutions. The latest 12z run however has actually had a slight tick to the northwest. This is a trend worth monitoring.

Based on the 12z GFS so grain of salt but CIPS analogs are compelling. A few biggies mixed in with some northeast hits. Also lol at #1

I think so. I haven't been in the islands in so many years like when I was a kid lol

Well, 1) I think you would see banding west of that QPF depiction 2) We still have 4 days to go....another 50 miles a big ask? There is a westward lean there...but we do not need to make sure this isn't an 18z artifact.

Yes, you were level-headed. I recall.....if this trend continues through 12z tomorrow, I'll capitulate.

What am I missing here with the latest Euro? Still at best a SENE storm? 6 inches for boston, 8 to 12 for the cape? Everyone riding the trend?

Yall have a back up pbp person ready. Going to the Mexican restaurant around the corner. They have buy 1 get 1 free pitchers of margaritas. I SHOULD be ok, but I'm just sayin...

I’ll be heat miser and say, if it does snow, let it be the last one for the season, I beg! I fell on the ice twice, and have had terrible joint paint from the deep cold this winter. I’m actually over it! .

We’re getting a lot more recon data in models to hopefully the trend keeps Going

God I hate the fact the fucking Nammer is the first model at the plate at this range to compare H5 progression... Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

Longtime lurker. Usually lurking for reasons gratefully worded. The models don't care what anyone feels about them.

i don't stay up.....but men of a certain age do not sleep all night; so when i have my 3 am wake up i check and usually see it has either fallen apart or looks good....then by morning it will be the opposite. happens every time and people here live and die by runs that mean nothing until a day or so before.

Not to steal his thunder but I made the money post about this this morning I did a very discrete comparison of the Euro and the GFS recent runs and isolated the difference between the two. The euro is now finding the short wave that the GFS has been tracking all along and suddenly this happens. As far as I’m concerned that’s the money post. I don’t care who makes the post. I’m just sayn’ for the sake of content question is do they both now en masse collapse out the sea ha ha ha ha wouldn’t that be funny just for shits and giggles I also described a phenomenon and modeling known as “data shadowing” , yesterday. I’m wondering if the euro fell victim to that.

Yes! I think that was the one. I was still in tuckahoe and it quickly went to sleet then plain rain. Then I knew we had a massive bust.

Hey now, well that's encouraging mad guy stuff. Very promising...they mean it. The 0z stuff is where I start to take a side. If things go south, I'm tossing my 12" B&W TV and assorted cassettes out the window.Maybe a couple 8 tracks if I'm really mad...vinyl no way. Still time .. 38F

It's winter , sign me up for the 4-6" of snow/ sleet rather than 50's and sun...

Very fragile setup like others are saying with a ton of pieces to work out. Could easily go a couple hundred miles back east. But there’s a way for the pieces to come together for a big hit-a phase in the right place, the confluence easing a little and enough ridging ahead of it to allow for a tucked in track. And enough wave spacing to have our storm with enough room to consolidate into a major nor’easter.

If 18z trends hold on with the 0z suite I'd say the odds for warning level snows increase significantly for NYC. Still, I'm cautious. We've had the rug pulled out beneath us before.

My Daughters name is Nora Lynn

Just got back and saw the 18z suite... I'm willing to give up all my clean water to run the GFS data center for a year if it pulls this off. Also guess I'm staying up till 12:45 tonight

I dont stay up anymore I just look at how many pages there are since I went to bed-lots I know it's good...

This was before 18z his post

Guess I’m going to work on 4 hours sleep tomorrow

Off topic.. is that old camp still out there with a bunch of white shacks and buildings on it? I lived out there for like 5 months working on them old buildings and shacks many moons ago! Lol