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P&C is up to ~2” here for whatever that’s worth. Expectations low for anything that meaningful given source. But pretty good shot at first snowfall/measurable snowfall, which is exciting itself.

Just landed in Wilmington this afternoon and it felt absolutely incredible the rest of the day. It hit 72 and I immediately threw off my sweatshirt and pants and went right back to late summer mode. Wouldn’t mind staying a couple solid weeks in this weather but I’m just paying a quick visit to some extended family atm. Apparently there’s a big frog infestation in the area I’m in which is hard to fathom after days of struggling to make it out of the 40s back home lol.

The angle of the moderate rain around DC I want to see in a month when it’s 25.

The old penalty structure was probably too harsh and would tend to inhibit people from posting relatively not-so-late forecasts, but having absolutely no late penalties is not that good either long-term, I will give it some thought for 2026 if we keep going, and have late penalties that make sense. Other contests that I am involved with have much more routine late penalties that are applied automatically (whether by me or some other person running a contest). The turnout for those is larger, which tends to mean that the contest organizer(s) are not as wary of annoying people with late penalties. I think as a scientific question, there is usually no more skill shown on 2nd or 3rd than there is on 1st or day before that. The late penalty concept for a monthly forecast contest is mostly to encourage on-time entries so everyone feels equally likely to do well and also so the organizer can get the table of forecasts done and move on to their normal routines. Sooner or later somebody is going to crush that 810 barrier, this could be the month, never know.

Hopefully the Canadian will be right. 3k looks rather paltry.

Any terrain has gotten plastered over the past week. Anything above 1500ft is very white. The river valleys are not white. It’s that time of year.

Glad you guys are okay!

Same! Greatest game I’ve ever been to. I might still be recovering

46/43. Solidly in the warm-sector after one of the coldest mornings. Life comes at you fast, all the sudden dew points in the 40s are noteworthy. It’s been awhile.

Someone had a premonition when they wrote the title of this thread...yikes. Coldest morning of the season today...got to 27.6. Looking forward to some wintery vibes but don't expect anything notable until 12/15 or later. The early model fantasies never seem to pan out.

Similar to yesterday meaning Wednesday’s run (mean dipped to only +7) remains the weakest: Wed. run:

30-day is the highest since December 2022! It had actually gone 31 straight months without passing +10, now it's up to +15. Between that, the Oct-Nov N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern, and now a -3c pocket developing in the ENSO subsurface.. you can make a case for a La Nina presence this Winter. I'm curious to see how it goes with the fact that 21 of the last 29 months have been +PNA (CPC), and what happens there going forward.

What did the EPS SPV forecast look like today?

I don’t think this is true. Now if they had a cold bias, that would be true.

I of course don’t post every day’s runs. But because I posted yesterday’s significantly colder week 4, I felt obligated to post today’s significantly warmer week 4 so as to not appear one-sided. Chuck’s guess that that was a top 15 percentile jump is as reasonable an educated guess as any. So, it was a “pretty big jump” as he said though nothing at all extreme, especially considering that’s still out at week 4. Consider how much colder it got for early next week on all models since that was during only week 2! So, considering all of this and the inherent unpredictability out a month, sig. jumps that far out on any long range ensemble are pretty common and shouldn’t ever be surprising.

Nice little rainstorm out there....

SOI....climbing

Currently 45 with a very loud thunderstorm and rain/graupel in Wolf. The 0z high res Canadian and 3km nam are looking good along the border for Sunday night and Monday. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

NMME page is pure ugly if you like winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

GSP . If the closed low sags far enough south that it cross the area on Monday, don`t be surprised to see a few snow flurries break containment east of the mountains, with flurries possible across the foothills and Piedmont Monday evening. The chance is low, but definitely nonzero.

These long range peeks make me very glad our recent renovations included new French doors and others plus the gas logs. Our formerly super drafty home is much better but still two doors to go. The new smart thermostat and room sensors too, woo boy bring on the cold. My old self would love some 76/77 77/78 style winters for my kids to see lol. .

sorry, I could pee more than this rain. I am more exited about seeing the possibility of white rain in the next few days. I will sleep just fine tonight. At least the wind has stopped. Tired of seeing down ash trees.

Strong vort coming over Sun/Mon,be interesting if some flurries can break out over the piedmont.

The negative PNA makes it like winning a 65 mustang but with an electric engine

The 12z GFS folded almost completely for how shallow it originally showed the trough. Might be good to keep in mind for later this winter.