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My area missed the brunt of the Nov 29 storm to the west and was just grazed by the storm that hit the east. But looks and feels like winter. We won't even touch freezing all week. Single digits Thu night. This is not normal early Dec weather. Avg highs in NYC are still upper 40s. Winter is just starting. Everyone wants a big storm but winter has more to offer than that.

getting some steady mood flakes at my office in River North

Is that because they weren't mixed in with any flying cows? That cold high may produce some of the coldest temps of the season so far. Mt. Holly even threw up a little Climo section about that - As a quick obs - I bottomed out at 30 this morning and it's currently mostly sunny and 39 with dp 24.

@The 4 Seasons as a result of the above I'm going with 3.2" total for yesterday. That said, ay insight you can bring to this conversation is appreciated.

I think i got all of them.............. 329 NOUS41 KGYX 031607 PNSGYX MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>015-040407- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Gray ME 1107 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Maine... ...Androscoggin County... Lisbon 0.6 S 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4.0 SE Poland 7.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Greene 1.9 S 7.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 S Greene 7.6 in 0756 AM 12/03 2 E Lewiston 7.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Auburn 7.5 in 0708 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1.8 W Lisbon Falls 7.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP null Durham 7.4 in 0800 AM 12/03 CO-OP Observer Durham 0.8 S 7.1 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 N Lisbon Falls 6.8 in 0845 AM 12/03 Public 1 W Mechanic Falls 6.1 in 0230 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 2 SE Lisbon Falls 6.0 in 0822 AM 12/03 3 SSW Livermore Falls 5.6 in 0614 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 2 NNW Lewiston 5.5 in 0640 PM 12/02 Public ...Cumberland County... 4 WSW New Gloucester 7.7 in 0240 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 5 S Bridgton 7.5 in 0426 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 SE New Gloucester 7.3 in 0721 AM 12/03 3 NW Naples 7.3 in 0830 AM 12/03 Public Cumberland Center 4.4 NW 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS North Pownal 0.9 W 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Sebago 2.4 ESE 7.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 ESE Raymond 6.6 in 0530 AM 12/03 Freeport 3.0 ENE 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 NW Falmouth 6.2 in 0712 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 NE Gorham 6.2 in 0720 AM 12/03 4 SSE Gorham 6.0 in 0900 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 N Cumberland 5.9 in 0534 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 3 SE Buxton 5.8 in 0115 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Brunswick 5.8 in 0557 AM 12/03 1 NW Freeport 5.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 2 WSW Falmouth 5.5 in 0100 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 2 S Cumberland 5.5 in 0625 AM 12/03 3 W Pownal 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 Official NWS Obs Gray, ME 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 HADS Portland 5.4 NW 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS North Windham 1.4 S 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Gorham 0.5 SSE 5.5 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Gorham 5.5 in 0801 AM 12/03 2 S Falmouth 5.2 in 0430 AM 12/03 Public Falmouth 1.0 SSW 5.2 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 SSE North Windham 5.0 in 1051 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NE Portland Jetport 5.0 in 0730 AM 12/03 1 NE Falmouth 5.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Portland 4.3 W 4.9 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 N Portland Jetport 4.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 ESE Westbrook 4.8 in 0726 AM 12/03 null Portland Jetport 4.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 ASOS South Portland 1.7 S 4.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 NNW Cape Elizabeth 4.5 in 0740 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter South Portland 4.5 in 0745 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 4 NW Portland 4.4 in 1201 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Harpswell 3.1 WSW 4.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...Franklin County... 6 WNW Madrid 11.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1.0 W Kingfield 9.0 in 0730 AM 12/03 COOP 6 SSE Rangeley 7.5 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter New Sharon 2.0 NW 6.9 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4 NNW Temple 6.5 in 0500 PM 12/02 2.1 NW Rangeley 6.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COOP Dallas 5.6 in 0945 AM 12/03 Public Rangeley 4.2 in 0600 AM 12/03 COOP ...Kennebec County... 2 NE South China 9.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 NW Farmingdale 8.4 in 0539 AM 12/03 1 SW Gardiner 8.1 in 0755 AM 12/03 3 SW South China 8.0 in 0140 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Augusta 1.5 WSW 8.0 in 0645 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 NNW Augusta 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Public 2 W Litchfield 8.0 in 0811 AM 12/03 Oakland 8.0 in 0830 AM 12/03 Public 2 W Whitefield 7.3 in 0751 AM 12/03 1 ESE Augusta 7.0 in 0516 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Manchester 0.5 NE 7.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Winslow 1.2 SSE 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 W Gardiner 7.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 2.0 SW Waterville 7.0 in 0900 AM 12/03 COOP Wayne 3.2 SSE 6.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 SE Winslow 6.1 in 0620 AM 12/03 2 W Vienna 6.0 in 0640 AM 12/03 Winthrop 0.8 S 6.0 in 0730 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 WNW Palermo 5.7 in 0954 PM 12/02 Public Readfield 2.0 NNE 5.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...Knox County... Washington 6.5 in 0900 AM 12/03 Public 1 SE Appleton 6.1 in 0746 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Union 3.0 NW 6.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Union 3.0 W 5.5 in 0656 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Hope 5.0 in 0531 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Union 2.1 NNE 5.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Thomaston 0.3 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter ...Lincoln County... Wiscasset 1.8 NNW 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Waldoboro 1.5 NNE 4.9 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Trevett 0.3 NE 4.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...Oxford County... 3 N Porter 11.0 in 0536 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Oxford 5.3 SW 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Bethel 6 SSE 7.5 in 0712 AM 12/03 COOP 3 WNW Brownfield 7.5 in 0900 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Lovell 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 1 WNW Otisfield 6.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Fryeburg 6.7 in 0758 AM 12/03 ...Sagadahoc County... 2.3 NW Bath 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Bath 1.1 WSW 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Topsham 0.8 WSW 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 NW Woolwich 7.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 Topsham 6.5 in 0730 AM 12/03 Public 2 ENE Topsham 6.3 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Bath 6.0 in 0959 AM 12/03 ...Somerset County... 4 N Anson 12.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Public North New Portland 0.3 WSW 9.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Cornville 8.0 in 0225 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Anson 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Brighton Plantation 2.1 N 7.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Palmyra 3.5 NW 7.2 in 0645 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Harmony 3.0 SSE 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 SE Skowhegan 6.5 in 0905 AM 12/03 3.6 W Rockwood 3.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Rockwood 7 SSE 3.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP ...Waldo County... Prospect 2.6 W 8.0 in 0730 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Belfast 3.9 NNE 7.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 WNW Searsport 7.6 in 0832 AM 12/03 Searsmont 3.5 WNW 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4 NNE Monroe 6.0 in 0652 AM 12/03 Liberty 5.0 in 0800 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Winterport 2.9 N 4.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Northport 4.0 in 0800 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Belfast 4.0 in 0800 PM 12/02 Public Northport 0.7 NE 2.8 in 0830 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...York County... 2.6 SW Ogunquit 9.3 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP 2 SSW East Baldwin 8.4 in 0411 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Cornish 5.6 ESE 8.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS South Berwick 1.3 E 7.0 in 0830 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4 ESE Limerick 6.8 in 0828 AM 12/03 5.0 NW Hollis 6.7 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Hollis Center 5.4 NW 6.7 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS North Berwick 5.3 W 6.6 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Biddeford 1.5 NNE 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS North Waterboro 1.2 NE 6.5 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 SW Old Orchard Beach 6.2 in 0700 AM 12/03 NWS Employee 3 NNW Hollis 6.0 in 1055 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Saco 6.0 in 1230 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Kittery 6.0 in 0643 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1.0 E Springvale 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP 2 ESE Biddeford 5.8 in 0601 AM 12/03 1 NNE Saco 5.5 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 NE Goodwins Mills 5.0 in 0915 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 NW Kennebunk 4.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Kittery Point 4.4 in 0850 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 SW Kennebunkport 3.7 in 0840 AM 12/03 ...New Hampshire... ...Belknap County... 4 WNW Laconia 10.0 in 0836 AM 12/03 Tilton Northfield 3.3 NE 9.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Belmont 1.7 SW 9.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Meredith 3.3 NNE 9.5 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 WSW Meredith 9.3 in 1240 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1.5 N Laconia 9.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP New Hampton 4.1 N 9.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Laconia 9.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Meredith 8.5 in 0617 PM 12/02 2 SSE Belmont 8.5 in 1110 PM 12/02 Meredith 2.9 SSW 8.5 in 0630 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 SW Laconia 8.5 in 0730 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 3 ENE Gilford 7.5 in 0600 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Tilton-Northfield 7.0 in 0822 PM 12/02 2 SSW Gilford 6.0 in 0454 PM 12/02 ...Carroll County... 2 NNE Freedom 12.6 in 0525 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 6 W Bridgewater 11.1 in 0725 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Center Sandwich 4.9 E 9.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COCORAHS East Sandwich 9.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COOP Eaton Center 1.6 SSE 9.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 ESE Moultonborough 8.8 in 0730 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 3 SE Albany 8.5 in 1040 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Tamworth 0.4 NNW 8.3 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Tamworth 8.3 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Wolfeboro 1.5 SE 8.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Wolfeboro 7.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 UCOOP North Conway 7.4 in 0800 AM 12/03 COOP 1 E Eaton 7.0 in 0503 PM 12/02 2 WSW South Tamworth 7.0 in 0503 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Center Sandwich 7.0 in 0759 AM 12/03 1 NE Wolfeboro 7.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter ...Cheshire County... Rindge 3.2 ESE 7.2 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1.6 W Keene 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Keene 1.3 SW 6.7 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 NW Hinsdale 6.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Keene 2.5 NNW 6.5 in 0600 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Keene 2.0 SE 6.5 in 0630 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Roxbury 6.5 in 0740 AM 12/03 Public West Chesterfield 0.3 WNW 6.2 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 NW Troy 6.2 in 0749 AM 12/03 1 NNW Westmoreland 6.0 in 0845 PM 12/02 2.0 NW Roxbury 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP 1 ENE Spofford 5.8 in 0728 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Coos County... Jefferson 1 W 8.3 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP Lancaster 0.5 N 8.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Pinkham Notch 7.0 in 0515 AM 12/03 COOP Whitefield 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 4 NNW Whitefield 7.0 in 0710 AM 12/03 Northumberland 6.0 in 0705 AM 12/03 COOP 2 ESE Jefferson 5.0 in 1159 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1.0 S Berlin 4.0 in 0722 AM 12/03 COOP ...Grafton County... Lyman 1.7 NNW 9.2 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Littleton 7.3 W 7.8 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Bristol 0.4 SSE 7.3 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Ashland 2.4 NNW 6.0 in 0457 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4 ENE Thornton 6.0 in 0637 AM 12/03 5 WSW Littleton 5.8 in 0752 AM 12/03 4 SSE Piermont 5.0 in 0807 PM 12/02 1 SW Sugar Hill 5.0 in 0637 AM 12/03 5 SSW Lyme 5.0 in 0639 AM 12/03 Hanover 4.8 NE 5.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Hanover 5.2 NE 4.9 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Wentworth 4.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 CO-OP Observer ...Hillsborough County... 1 WSW Peterborough 9.5 in 0614 AM 12/03 Mont Vernon 1.3 SSW 8.5 in 0630 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Peterborough 8.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP null Manchester Airport 8.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 ASOS 3 NNW Francestown 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 SW Brookline 8.0 in 0719 AM 12/03 2 S New Ipswich 8.0 in 0757 AM 12/03 2 WSW South Hooksett 8.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 1 W Bennington 7.6 in 0658 AM 12/03 2 WNW Windsor 7.5 in 0637 AM 12/03 2 SW Brookline 7.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 Brookline 2.3 SW 7.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Antrim 4.1 NW 7.4 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 ENE Milford 7.3 in 1202 AM 12/03 Public Brookline 7.2 in 0541 AM 12/03 1 WNW Hillsborough 7.0 in 0840 PM 12/02 Hollis 7.0 in 0100 AM 12/03 Broadcast Media 1 WSW Bedford 7.0 in 0530 AM 12/03 Public 2 W South Hooksett 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 Broadcast Media 2 N New Boston 6.8 in 0644 AM 12/03 1 SSE Nashua 6.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 Official NWS Obs Milford 1 ESE 6.5 in 0830 AM 12/03 COOP 3 NNE Hollis 6.4 in 0705 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 W Temple 6.0 in 0640 PM 12/02 3 WSW Merrimack 6.0 in 1109 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 4 SSE Hudson 5.6 in 0732 AM 12/03 2 SSW Hollis 5.3 in 0735 PM 12/02 Weare 5.0 in 0500 PM 12/02 ...Merrimack County... Danbury 2.2 ESE 10.1 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 SSE Dunbarton 9.0 in 0801 AM 12/03 Contoocook 9.1 NNW 8.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS South Sutton 1.3 SE 8.3 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 SW Salisbury 8.2 in 0758 AM 12/03 1 NNW Bradford 8.1 in 0607 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Bow 1.6 NW 8.1 in 0745 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3.3 SW Contoocook 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP 1 NE Henniker 7.7 in 0730 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 SSE Henniker 7.5 in 0622 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Contoocook 0.6 NNW 7.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS South Hooksett 7.1 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 1 S South Hooksett 7.1 in 0833 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 ESE Bow 7.0 in 0200 AM 12/03 Sutton Mills 0.1 ENE 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Concord 2.4 E 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Dunbarton 1.0 S 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 NNW Warner 7.0 in 0845 AM 12/03 New London 0.8 S 6.8 in 0528 AM 12/03 COCORAHS null Concord Municipal Airp 6.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 ASOS Concord 3.8 SSE 6.2 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 E Canterbury 6.0 in 0619 AM 12/03 Epsom 4.2 SW 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...Rockingham County... 2 NNW Sandown 9.3 in 0932 AM 12/03 Hampstead 3 NW 9.2 in 0630 AM 12/03 COOP Nottingham 1.2 S 8.5 in 0830 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 2 NNW Chester 8.0 in 0253 AM 12/03 Public Derry 5.7 N 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Derry 8.0 in 0928 AM 12/03 Londonderry 7.5 in 0606 AM 12/03 Stratham 1.9 ESE 7.4 in 0500 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 0.5 W Epping 7.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COOP 2 ENE Stratham 6.8 in 0630 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter Northwood 2.9 WSW 6.5 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 4 ESE Epsom 6.5 in 0900 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 N Deerfield 6.0 in 0926 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter N Portsmouth Airport 4.6 in 0700 AM 12/03 AWOS Rye 1.0 S 3.8 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS ...Strafford County... 6 ENE Middleton 8.0 in 0430 AM 12/03 Public Rochester 3.4 ENE 8.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 SE Dover 7.0 in 0600 AM 12/03 2 ESE Rochester 7.0 in 0900 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 3 NNE Northwood 6.3 in 0715 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Barrington 3.7 W 6.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS New Durham 2.5 E 6.0 in 0800 AM 12/03 COCORAHS Barrington 3.2 E 5.8 in 0500 AM 12/03 COCORAHS 3 E Barrington 5.8 in 0506 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter ...Sullivan County... Sunapee 8.0 in 0704 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 2 NE Newport 7.5 in 1000 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 NNW Claremont 7.1 in 0944 PM 12/02 Public 2 W Langdon 6.4 in 0900 AM 12/03 Trained Spotter 1 WNW Washington 5.9 in 0720 AM 12/03 Cornish 1.1 ENE 5.0 in 0700 AM 12/03 COCORAHS &&

yea this would be quite interesting for January prospects

6z Euro tops out at 28F for the 5th at DCA. Almanac data says the daily record low max is 25F from 1886. A day later and it would be threatening that record low max of 29F (1910).

Hope yall get something decent.

which was what storm?

In fairness I wouldn't lose sleep over this 1-3 inch snowstorm missing to the south if that happens. Now, if we get a December 2018 then its worth it.

I’ve never seen any MJO history prior to the BoM’s 6/1/1974.

FWIW the 12z CMC seems to have more interaction with the low I was talking about earlier and its to the shortwaves seeming determent as its unable to turn more neutral to negative as both runs fail to ingest the vorticity but 12z gets more interaction without phasing. Maybe there's a minimum in potential between either no interaction outwest and relying on just the NS diving and the other potential of a relatively complete and clean phase (which would have a higher upside) 12z last 12z

and miss your inner-fighting and melts?

Thank you so much. For a long time I had been trying to figure out when it was that I had about a 3 footer and thanks to your work I was able to figure it out even though the map for the event only shows 2 feet.

write a letter, make sure they know

TLDR: Yes, that's what I would do. To my knowledge, but with low confidence, there is still the "greatest depth in 24 hours" thing. There's so much noise and conflicting guidance on the web, including between different NWS pages, that its near impossible for us mortals to be definitive. Plus, there's different standards for airports/ASOS sites and other users. Not sure if COCORAHS, coops, mesonets, and spotters get the same guidance either. And then there's the measure only at set times sites (cue cpcantmeasuresnow). It's mayhem. I've gone back to resetting at phase changes or between unusual events like separate snowfalls in the morning and evening. Just seems like common sense to me. Otherwise, I do wipe the board at midnight (once per day). I'm amenable to updating my methodology if someone can convincingly show that I'm not doing it correctly.

If you take a step back and just look at the larger pattern progression it might be the period that makes the most sense...but it's also the furthest out of all the concrete threats.

I'm half joking. Most likely @bristolri_wx didn't set me up with editor permissions.

Ope! Two more posts came in while I was deliberating. RAP looks juicier. Otherwise my sports malaise creeps into weather... Thursday night looks similar to Monday night. Little bit of ice (trace) northwest of I-40 in the Mid-South. Light snow north of that, but probably less for northern Kentucky. Any light mix or ice area will get slick roads. Not enough QPF to mess with trees and power lines. Let's keep those themes all winter! Wake me up with Chattanooga can get below 40 deg during precip. January? Ah hell, let me get back into the severe thread and chew on Jag's post. That's what I'm talkin' about! Chatty rants aside, the cold pattern seems to want to stick around longer than initially forecast. While the MJO wants to complicate things, colder teleconnections are forecast to win out (on models). Even as the pattern relaxes (only somewhat) day 11-15 a possible reload awaits the weekend of Dec. 19 or going into the week of Dec. 22 which we'll call the 16-20 day. I'll throw in some gems from the Physical Science Lab. Keep that comin'

11th-12th time period... I believe a few people on here have mentioned that time period as a potential threat

I haven't looked at the upper level progression yet today so I was going off of yesterday (which may have had that low more important who knows). I was treating the situation as if we can get more energy together earlier we have a better shot at running the gamut of confluence to our North (I am also 100 miles south so I care a little less about the confluence). That said, I definitely see overall how changing the NS wave would help us out more concretely than anything else as it is the direct inhibitor to strengthening.

What I will say is that I decided to let my "slightly above average snowfall" seasonal forecast ride. And nothing I've seen so far makes me regret that.

Southern part of this forum jackpotted last winter… isnt it our turn for us from gaithersburg to pa border!? .

This is what I meant in my last comment about so many permutations...the CMC actually made the changes we need with the NS, but it has a weaker more disjointed southern system and has this little kicker behind it that wasn't there before or on other guidance...so it ends up with the same result. If you had that NS look from the CMC with the GFS/Euro TN valley look...it would be a snowstorm for us. But I'm not good enough to figure out all these little variables from this range and I am not going to project false confidence and pretend I am.