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  2. Baroclinic Zone
    Just accept it’s gonna be a warmer winter. Things may break, things may not. Such is life.
  3. donsutherland1
    Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:
  4. michsnowfreak
    Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet. Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4". NYC was well below at 8.1"
  5. CAPE
    You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?
  6. Chinook
    Hurricane Lala (65kt) at 6:30PM Aug 15
  7. michsnowfreak
    Duluth, MN was even crazier than Minneapolis. Again, these are today's averages. DULUTH Dec: +15.6° Jan: +9.3° Feb: +15.6°
  8. JACKASS
    But you did? Only to constantly post the snowiest winter outlooks you could find from x/twitter, In multiple sub forums!
  9. MJO812
  10. CAPE
    Yeah coastal NE could be a cool chase. Esp Maine, where it's almost always cold enough for a bombing coastal low as it moves towards the Canadian Maritimes.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Still sucked for snowfall on the east coast.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is obviously a connection between solar and ENSO..I pointed that out last week, then some new poster disputed it.
  13. michsnowfreak
    The core of warmth in 1877-78 was in the upper midwest and into Canada. It wasn't even a mild winter on the east coast. It ranks only 12th warmest from 1869-1900 at NYC. 1877-78 departures using today's averages MSP Dec: +11.8° Jan: +5.6° Feb: +10.9° DTW Dec: +6.8° Jan: +1.5° Feb: +1.2° NYC Dec: -1.7° Jan: -3.8° Feb: -3.6°
  14. JACKASS
    Odd day, when the sun was out it was quite warm. When clouds rolled through, it actually felt a bit chilly. This happened mid afternoon.
  15. CAPE
    Probably not, but not like it's feet of snow off or something. This is from NWS Buffalo.. clearly not a banner year for snowfall in that area. https://www.weather.gov/media/buf/obs/COOPSNOW_2015-2016.pdf
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998.
  17. Greenwald
    PWAT is about as high as it gets. No rain though, mowed today. Tomorrow should be the last day of this pattern. Signals are showing maybe a dry last 1/2 of August.
  18. donsutherland1
    Clouds will increase tomorrow holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.530 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  19. dailylurker
    I'm seeing something that says they had 150" plus. Regardless, that pretty light for up there. My goal is to experience 300" inches of falling snow this season. My basecamp will be on the Tug, but I'll definitely chase big snowstorms from the Mid Atlantic up through New England. I've always wanted to experience a blizzard out on Cape Cod.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Been working on the Pacific....2009 is actually damn good extra tropical Pacific analog.
  21. Baroclinic Zone
    Today was that early chill of fall impending. Low 50s and low dews. topped out at 80f today with dews in the 50s.
  22. Today
  23. GramaxRefugee
    Snow recorded to the hundredth? Wonder if that Ai thing is right.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F.
  25. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  26. WxUSAF
    One is atmospheric angular momentum and someone posted that recently in the ENSO thread I think. It was very high for this time of year, which suggest the Nino is already well coupled.
  27. vortex95
    And it shows solid destabilization despite lots of clouds. You can do a lot more for CAPE by adding to the dew point than temp per deg. GFS has DCA 69 dew point at 15z up to 74 by 00z. Also it backs the sfc winds to SSE. This is w/ WNW winds at 500 so that's over 90 deg veering sfc-500. That should mean robust supercells. Speed shear is common here but good directional shear is not so this may be a best tor risk of the year so far Sunday.
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